Climate science’s watery reprieve

National Post ^ | July 8, 2010 | Terence Corcoran

[the_Watchman]

First, the review apparently left out that the tree ring methodology was abandoned for later years, not only because actual data was available, but also BECAUSE THAT SAME METHODOLOGY DID NOT MATCH THE ACTUAL RESULTS FOR THE YEARS WHEN COMPARATIVE DATA WAS AVAILABLE!

Second, the emails provide plenty of data showing vindictive behavior by these CRU scientists towards scientists and publications who dare to bring opposing opinions to the light of day. How does that square with a finding that states they behaved ethically?

[sodpoodle]

By the time the Earth’s temperatures have increased or decreased in any perceptible or influential measure; all these numbchucks will be DEAD!!!!

In the meantime, they will continue to receive wads of wampum for specious scientific inquiry.

I would rather give my tax money to Sophie the Psychic Fortune Teller. Her rates are reasonable and you know she’s making stuff up.

[Gondring]

“When used by scientists, [trick] can mean for example a mathematical approach brought to bear to solve a problem.”

Ever since this incident blew up, I am acutely aware of using that term. My fellow scientists or I use it daily, I think, in this way.

[TigersEye]

Greenhouse theory is pure bunkum.

No Smoking Hot Spot (The Australian)

The Hidden Flaw in Greenhouse Theory

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics

Harvard astrophysicist dismisses AGW theory, challenges peers to 'take back climate science'

It Is Impossible For A 100 ppm Increase In Atmospheric CO2 Concentration To Cause Global Warming

Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

“BECAUSE THAT SAME METHODOLOGY DID NOT MATCH THE ACTUAL RESULTS FOR THE YEARS WHEN COMPARATIVE DATA WAS AVAILABLE!”

And for me, that puts the kibosh on all dendrochronology in general! I find it no longer trustworthy.

[raisetheroof]

“When used by scientists, [trick] can mean for example a mathematical approach brought to bear to solve a problem.”

Ever since this incident blew up, I am acutely aware of using that term. My fellow scientists or I use it daily, I think, in this way.

As someone else pointed out, "trick" wasn't the real scandal. It was "hide the decline".

[HiTech RedNeck]

This kind of usage of mathematics shouldn’t be called a trick any more than Einstein’s theory of relativity should be called a trick. If the usage is worthy of dignity, then it deserves a dignified term such as “method.”

[Gondring]

As someone else pointed out, "trick" wasn't the real scandal. It was "hide the decline".

Exactly.

With one caveat...I haven't taken the time to dig into the specifics of what the reference was on that message, beyond it having to do with the tree-ring data. There are some valid points to consider. Here are a few:

1. When you run some of the many smoothing algorithms (e.g., 30-year running mean), you can't run them out into the future. Your last few decades might generate artifacts and not a true running average. It takes a "trick" to prevent the software from running into the future, else you get a downward trendline even if the last few decades are entirely upward. To leave the downward trend at the end would be the irresponsible approach.
2. A failure of correlation of tree-ring results to measured temperatures does not necessarily mean the older tree-ring interpretation is wrong. The new growth is different from older rings. It would be irresponsible to include new growth with old.
3. etc.

Note that this was presentation of information that they were discussing, not the actual information. That's important, even if it doesn't justify what they did or reduce the misleading nature of it. Where I see the true problems is how the methods are not revealed clearly (which smoothing algorithm?, what assumptions?, which is proxy data and which is measurements?, etc.).

[Gondring]

This kind of usage of mathematics shouldn’t be called a trick any more than Einstein’s theory of relativity should be called a trick. If the usage is worthy of dignity, then it deserves a dignified term such as “method.”

"Technique" would be a better term.

But in many cases, it's still a "Trick" because you're having to trick the software into presenting reality and not an artifact. Try running a algorithm on a scatter of geographically spaced data and see how the contours look. They often won't match reality because of boundaries being undefined, the configuration might be better represented by equal-spacing than kriging, etc. You sometimes have to put in fake information at the edge of your model, to "trick" the software into generating a model that's more representative of reality than how the limited data you have would plot.

Depending on which of Einstein's relativity theories you meant, it would quite clearly be called a "trick" if he used everyday analogies to describe things that are not truly Newtonian...and yet nobody would accuse him of being dishonest.

[HiTech RedNeck]

If you, the human, have a solid basis for whatever you expect the program to show as reality, then that basis deserves to be worked into the software as a “method.” Even if the result has to be qualified as an approximation. If you have no solid basis, then we have not only “tricks” but “circular reasoning.” At any rate, the edge cases that are affected by the choice of method deserve to be flagged as such in output intended for the eyes of those not already thoroughly in the know.

[neverdem]

Thanks for the links.

[TigersEye]

You’re welcome. I hope you find them interesting.

[neverdem]

Michael Barone: Thomas’s Principled Jurisprudence in Arms Case - Justice Thomas correctly applied the privileges and immunities clause in the McDonald case.

The Aftermath of McDonald v. Chicago - What's next for gun rights?

What America Lost with McChrystal's Resignation

Democrats battle independents' weakening support of Obama and Congress

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[pandoraou812]

interesting links

[TigersEye]

gratuitous flattery

[pandoraou812]

bs

[TigersEye]

ns