Posted on 06/14/2010 6:55:34 PM PDT by randita
Nunnelee Leads Childers In GOP Poll
June 14, 2010 5:50 PM
By Tim Sahd
Just two weeks after his 51% primary victory, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) now leads Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) by eight points, according to a poll conducted for his campaign.
The Tarrance Group (R) poll conducted for Nunnelee, obtained by Hotline OnCall, surveyed 303 likely voters between June 8-9 for a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. Nunnelee and Childers were tested.
GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Nunnelee 50% (+8 from Mar. survey)
Childers 42 (-9)
The poll also shows Nunnelee emerged relatively unscathed from the primary, as he sports a 44/8% favorable/unfavorable rating. Childers, meanwhile, is also viewed favorably -- 49% positive -- but has higher negatives (30%). Moreover, Pres. Obama's approval ratings are at just 36%. Obama took 38% of the vote here in 2008.
Nunnelee has undoubtedly benefited from a few good weeks. Not only did he win his 6/1 primary without a run-off, he's also gotten his defeated challengers to line up behind his campaign.
This means that Childers not only has to face a united GOP -- something he had the good fortune of not facing in '08 -- he'll also have to defend his voting record. While he ranked as the third-most conservative Dem in '09, according to National Journal vote rankings, that may not be enough to insulate him from the coming GOP wave.
Earlier this year, Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) -- the Dem with the most conservative vote record in '09 -- released a poll showing him with a 20%+ lead over his closest GOP challenger. That survey also showed the AL Dem with a 68% fav/25% unfav rating. Nunnelee's survey shows Childers doesn't catch the same breaks as Bright.
Unlike Bright, Childers has voted with Dem leadership on several issues, including on the stimulus. GOPers also believe he erred in waiting until the final days to declare his intent to vote against the recent health care overhaul legislation.
Therefore, while Blue Dogs like Bright and even Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) appear to be starting their general election campaigns in decent shape, they may be an isolated cases, and may not be harbingers of good news to other conservative or moderate Dems who sit in GOP-leaning districts. Indeed, a motivated GOP base is greatly aiding Nunnelee's cause against Childers. Among those "extremely" likely to vote (64% of the sample), the Tarrance Group survey says Nunnelee leads by 18%.
All is not lost for Childers, however. Nunnelee spent nearly $500K in his primary, and thus had just over $150K in the bank in May. Childers, meanwhile, is sitting on a $700K warchest. To continue his momentum, Nunnelee will need to quickly ramp up fundraising for the general.
Childers is a smart campaigner, and won't be taken out simply by the district's strong GOP lean. But Nunnelee has enjoyed a very strong June, and that has apparently put him in very good shape for the fall.
GOP poll, but what the hay?
Mississippi ping
I take it this is a possible pick up in the Congress? One had to decipher the article.
Momma Grizzly could seal this for the GOP with just a simple shout out!
“GOP poll, but what the hay?”
True. Maybe it was polled with press coverage in mind, but no one that I know of pays a polling firm to lie to them. I’d call it an outlier poll.
A pink Toss-Up rating by our "experts" is a Toss-Up leaning Republican. So it looks to me that KHR has it right and that the rating might move to Leans R in the near future. In fact the composite rating is currently at +.5 which is the border between Toss-Up (R) and Leans R so any positive change by any of the "experts" will move Nunnelee to Leans R.
>>I take it this is a possible pick up in the Congress?
The race will not be as close as it looks. This is a heavily Republican/conservative district. Childers stole his 15 minutes of fame because the 08 Republican primary was so divisive. Many of the pubbies on the losing end of that primary voted for Childers out of spite.
That won’t happen this time. Childers would be well-advised to start packing his crap now to return to selling houses in January.
I like it!
I like your tagline!
Well I’m glad SOMEBODY finally noticed. :>)
Nobody noticed? It was the first thing I noticed.
But, then...you’ve always had some of the best taglines on the forum. ;o)
Another Tarrance Group poll shows the GOP challenger to Kentucky Rat Ben Chandler down by only 45-38
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/06/chandler.html\
That race bears watching.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.