The overwhelming odds are that this morning’s “bounce” reflects absolutely nothing more than random sampling variation.
As I was attempting a while ago to disaggregate the latest “raw data” underlying Rasmussen’s three-day moving average, I got the distinct impression that last night’s sample — only 500 respondents, BTW — swung in favor of the Big Ø by something like ten points, maybe more. It’s inevitable that such wild swings will occur from time to time with small samples, and really they don’t mean a thing. Just run-of-the-mill statistical noise.
Moreover, since last night’s “probably-out-of-range” numbers will continue to be embedded in Rasmussen’s daily reports for two more mornings, we shouldn’t pay a lot of attention to the report tomorrow (Friday) or Saturday.
But do keep an eye on the ten-day moving average. I had expected this morning’s number would touch or break thru its old support level (all-time low) of -17.7, but no such luck: It got down “only” to -17.5. Still, that’s a fantastic number in terms of the electoral implications, because it suggests that if an election were held today, a generic opponent should be able to beat the Big Ø by the astounding margin of 60 to 40!
Well analyzed.