Skip to comments.Economic fault lines: Risks remain below recovery's surface
Posted on 05/21/2010 3:47:30 AM PDT by mlocher
Most economists agree the Great Recession has been over for almost a year, and that the U.S. economy is not poised to fall into a "double dip" recession.
But the problems in Europe have some people questioning just how strong the U.S. economy really is. There are clearly economic fault lines.
Jobs: Employers are finally hiring once again, adding more than a half-million jobs over the past six months. More gains are expected in the months ahead.
But it'll take years to fully regain the 8.3 million jobs lost over the past two years. Unemployment is still near 10% and when part-time workers looking for full-time work and discouraged job seekers are counted, the underemployment rate is 17.1%.
Long-term unemployment is at record highs, and there are nearly 6 unemployed job seekers for every job opening. While that's down from the record set in November, it's almost twice as bad as the peak that followed the previous recession.
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Toronto investment bank Gluskin Sheff, said the prolonged job market woes have resulted in a decline in personal income of more than $400 billion (excluding government payments like unemployment benefits) since the start of the recession. That will keep consumer spending in check, he argues.
"Even if the technical recession is over, the depression [for most people] is ongoing," he said.
Housing: Home building, sales and prices have all shown signs of improvement recently, but many economists point out it took intervention by the government, such as a tax credit for home buyers and Federal Reserve purchases of more than $1 trillion in mortgages, to support the market.
Those programs have now come to an end, and many fear housing is about to turn lower once again.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.fidelity.com ...
“Most economists agree the Great Recession has been over for almost a year,”
I’m starting to think that “Most economists” is being used in the same way as “Most Scientists” is used for Man made Global Warming.
We keep losing jobs.
I can remember during the early 2000’s when we’d see 1-2% growth and an INCREASE in jobs, these same “journalists” were calling it a recession.
Where’s the BS Alert?
I was just gonna say there is no recovery. More foreclosures, higher unemployment, stocks diving. If this is their idea of a recovery, I would hate to see what a depression looks like.
WE ARE IN A DESPRESSION... RECOVERY REQUIRES THAT WE FIRST ADMIT IT.
Keynesians are in their final credibility meltdown. There is no way to avoid the economic collaps, or the deafening Austrian school "I told you so and explained why each step of the way" that is coming.
The same ones who thought the economy was doing fine in 2007?
Maybe they mean this is as good as it gets. If Republicans were smart(???), they would be calling Obama out on claiming the economy is rosy , being out of touch with the unemployed Americans. I been watching democrats do this for years.
Most economists agree the Great Recession has been over for almost a year
” The same ones who thought the economy was doing fine in 2007? “
Yeah, the same ones.
The press won’t cover it.
It’s unbelievable how they can just go on like everything is just fine.
Unemployment at one point during Bush had been around 6.3% (during his first term)and they were calling it the worst economy since Herbert Hoover.