Posted on 05/20/2010 8:55:37 AM PDT by ctpsb
Jim Geraghty
May 19, 2010 10:00 A.M.
Recapping Pennsylvania’s 12th The GOP’s Tim Burns dramatically underperformed in turning out his base.
On Tuesday morning, Republicans who were closely watching the special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District — once represented by John Murtha — did not offer ironclad, take-it-to-the-bank guarantees that their man Tim Burns was going to win. But they liked his chances, and expected him to at least run close to Democrat Mark Critz.
The final tally wasn’t close: Critz won 53.4 percent to Burns’s 44.3 percent, with all precincts but one reporting. Critz won a bit more than 71,000 votes, Burns a bit more than 59,000.
So what happened? Among the arguments emerging late Tuesday night:....
(Excerpt) Read more at article.nationalreview.com ...
I don’t think you can count on a different result in the November election. But I also don’t think this race was a precursor to the 2010 elections either. Most Democrats have a track record that will prevent them from being seen as centrist or conservative.
What happened? Very simple. You have to sell for something and not just against something. You have to give people a reason to change and go out and vote. Being against something won’t do it. It is like someone trying to sell me new golf clubs. If they just keep saying my old (incumbent) golf club stink. Well ok. I agree..but they need to offer me features and benefits of why buying a new (republican) golf club would be of value. Such as it will allow me to hit the drive 250 yards even with a bad swing (feature) and people will be in such awe they will probably be a line of people to invite me to sit with them for lunch at the club just to talk about my golf game (benefit). Same concepts need to be applied in each district features and benefits of voting for the candidate. Otherwise, people won’t have reason to change their golf clubs :) there is my analogy lol
I thought that was a good analysis. This Pa-12 race can be studied by Burns people and other Congressional candidates across the country. A sort of laboratory experiment before the big one in November.
I like your golf club analogy.
Feelings matter.
ping
Thank you. Now feel like going out out to hit a bucket. Think I am gonna get a new driver though :) lol
I’ve got a friend who was untel recently a resident of PA 12. I forwarded this to him and he shot right back that it is pretty far off the mark. PA-12 is solid Dem territory, with an older, mostly white population and a lot of current and former union families. Industry pretty much collapsed in the district a generation ago and the jobs never returned. Most housholds have a member or two on government assistance. Republicans rarely even bother running in local races. He chalks up McCain’s win to simple racism.
I think more Democrats voted then Republicans. Remember Specter/Sestak
To sell them in that district talk about how the money being wasted on the Trillion dollar health care monstrosity could be used instead to solidify their Medicare and Social Security benefits. Again, you can’t just be against the health care you have to show why repealing it would benefit them.
7 iron is my go to club :) too lol
My pal is not too complimentary of his former neighbors.
More Democrats voted in their Kentucky primary than in the Republican one. I don't take that as a sign the Senate seat is in jeopardy.
We lost because really, not much has changed. American’s may say they are upset at government, but they really aren’t upset enough to be willing to see their personal favorite programs cut. The Democrat sounds fairly in tune with that district and was no threat to cut off the gravy train.
A majority of the residents of PA-12 want their freebies and pork. Simple as that.
I wonder if we’ll see a massive wave of Democrat incumbents retiring this election. Critz could run as a conservative Democrat (whether true or not) and he had no record disprove that. Obviously an incumbent, and particularly the barking moonbats in office today, can’t do that. I wonder if the party will “convince” a lot of the incumbents to retire, and then nominate newcomers who don’t have a record, trying to replicate the PA-12 dynamic and hoping for some general goodwill towards the Democrats to pull it out.
Actually I think the district was gerrymandered by Republicans with all the areas left over after creating several Republican districts.
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