Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

Newsletter writers, hedge fund managers, journalists, bloggers, technicians, fundamental analysts, economists and strategists are joining the crash camp left and right. Not the bear camp...the crash camp.

After scanning today's articles and blog posts, I can honestly say that I've never heard more chatter about an imminent market crash, all at once, in my life. It's like the May 6th Flash Crash got everyone in the mood to talk cataclysm all of a sudden.

I'm not one of those guys who takes everything as a contrarian signal. I abhor knee-jerk contrarianism. Samuel Lord once said "Do not choose to be wrong for the sake of being different," and I think that's kind of apropos here.

* The technicians and Dow Theorists are grossed out and have dusted off all the 1937 charts again. Specifically, they are looking at the highly distinct pattern of a big drop (May 6th) followed by a failed rally (euro bailout day's 4% gap open) followed by another fast sell-off. Richard Russell's latest missive, in which he tells us that we won't recognize America by year's end, will make you want to kill yourself.

We're not talking garden variety bearishness here. We're talking about ubiquitous crash predictions. My comment is that I've never seen so much certainty in so many places of a coming crash. Will it be self-fulfilling or are we talking major contrarian signal?

From that link:

If I read the stock market correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a collection of other troubles ahead

What's the surprise? They just passed health care, they passed a wasteful stimulus and are looking at another, and the Bush tax cuts expire next year. Europe is going down the tubes and we are a couple years behind them. Why wouldn't anyone want to invest?

OK, here it comes,.......It may be different this time. I'm 59 and have played the markets since Nixon and Dow 500. I have seen all the big slides since then and rode the bulls up. Never before, however have we had a communist America hater for president, and the rest of the socialist world waiting for the slide into oblivion. Even during the Cuban missile crisis, people believed in capitalism and a bounce back,....we were all optimists. Not now, the numbers are right there for anyone to stare at,...just look them up and do the math. There isn't enough money in the world to cover the debt that has been run up in the last few years,...literally, not enough money in the world.

The market may go up and down for awhile, but eventually, the music will stop and there will be a grand shortage of chairs. It won't be just financial, their will be blood. Just try to imagine a world when the Social Security and Medicare payments stop. Maybe 50% unemployment and lawless behavior from the majority of the worlds populations. It will take a dictator of unimaginable ruthlessness to gain control of the situation.(sounds Biblical, huh) Americans will finally live like the Democrats have aimed for for decades,....like Viet Nam. We will have our bikes and mopeds eating rice and beans from dumpsters and living in a tin shack.

If you pay attention to what's being preached for decades, we NEED to cut back, live on less, do without, pay more for less, etc. They make it seem patriotic to have a smaller car, house, and use less energy and stuff.

Obama has made the perfect storm come about. He will destroy the capitalist system to make way for world socialist government. The Health Care Bill was nothing more than a first step to destroy private care so he can come in with single payer to save the day. Spending trillions we don't have is just a way to collapse the system so you will be GLAD to accept government control of your life. It's been done on purpose for decades.

The sick part is all the morons that will be glad to see it come. Just read the posts on some blogs. I figure it's going to take a lot more ammo to "cleanse" the country when it finally succumbs to idiocy. If someone destroys my country, the only one on the planet, there will be hell to pay. If they want to live, they should have gone to Canada to live in their socialist utopia. Just look at Greece and multiply that by 1000. America will come apart at the seams if the Social Security checks don't come. How will they get new NIKE's or an Iphone's. Some one will pay.

Thanks, I got a little carried away when I read the comments on the Drudge link to the Houston Chronicle about Texas doctors refusing Medicade patients. They said the doctors should be jailed, they should be forced to take the patients for free, and of course, the single payer system would “fix” the problem. If we get a single payer system, 50% or more of the doctors would retire of course and I'm sure we would jail them for quitting. A nation of morons is what we have. They have no clue what a trillion dollars is, let alone $14 trillion. Fannie and Freddie are on the hook for over $100 trillion. This isn't even counting the coming disasters in Social Security and Medicare. I'll be waiting for Buffet, Soros, and Gates to write a check since they voted for Obama. That should cover it.

I can't believe the educational level of Americans today. The only explanation I can come up with is the Bible says they will have scales on their eyes. Woe to those that call evil, good, and good, evil.

The market fundamental are unchanged from summer 2009 to support the
current stock market levels, especially those tied to Goods versus Services.

The MSM says that the merchants have been “building inventory”.
But the Baltic Dry Index tells a different story as it's still
one-fourth the level it was preceding the crash of September 2008:

Personal savings are up, but Foreclosures are about to be worse the next two summers
than they have been thus far, as ARMs and Option-ARMs mature:

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As Commercial Lending will continue to remain low for the foreseeable future
as the Federal government gobbles up dollars with its massive Obama expansions,
it all seems reminiscent of the Long Depression, which followed the Panic of 1873.

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