PA-12 Poll: Critz (D) pulls ahead (GOP likely losing yet another special election)

Real Clear Politics ^ | May 12, 2010 | Kyle Trygstad

[St. Louis Conservative]

Mark Critz, a former aide to the late John Murtha and the Democratic nominee to replace him, has pulled out to a 6-point lead in the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th district, according to a new Susquehanna poll. Critz leads Republican Tim Burns 44%-38% with less than a week to go.

The Johnstown-based district in southwestern Pennsylvania has swing potential, despite the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage and Murtha's dominance in the district for the last 36 years. It's the only district that voted for both John Kerry and John McCain.

Critz is running as a continuation of Murtha -- a strategy that could be detrimental to his chances, as we've seen two incumbents in the last several days lose the nomination of their own party. And two more incumbents are in danger next Tuesday, as well, as Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) go up against formidable challengers.

Both national parties are spending big on this race, as it could provide a boost in momentum for either. That includes Republicans, who haven't won a competitive House special election this cycle.

[smoothsailing]

lots of misinformation being battered around above.

Sure is, but I'm not surprised.LOL!

The Burns hype just hasn't impressed the voters here in the district that much. Folks here see the Burns and Critz nonstop attack ads day after day on TV. The constant foodfight between the two is juvenile and disgusting.

Out-of-town clowns and political hacks are coming in here and telling voters that Burns is the second coming.

Folks here don't like the meddling and pestering, and conservative voters are disgusted with the selection of Burns in the first place. He's considered an overhyped opportunistic upstart. It's no surprise his star is fading.

My humble and final prediction for the special election is Critz 54% Burns 42% Agoris 4%.

In the Republican Primary, it will be close, but I expect Col. Russell will win with 52%, proving once again what completely incompetent asses the PAGOP and it's chairman Gleason are.

[jazusamo]

Thanks for the ping, Brit.

Yes, there's a fair amount of misinfo but I'm going to defer to Smooth, he lives there and knows the players.

I will say registered Dems outnumber Repubs by about 2 to 1 but there are many Reagan Dems. The voters in the district are also around 20% veterans and they turn out for elections.

Both Critz and Burns have no military service and everyone knows that Murtha was considered somewhat of a military hero. /sarc But those veterans voted for him in large numbers.

Russell has a distinguished military career and has been out in the district meeting people on a continuing basis since the last election.

BILL RUSSELL, PA-12, MAY 18
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

HOME...|...BILL RUSSELL...|...VOLUNTEER...|...ISSUES...|...NEWS...|...EVENTS...|...DONATE

.

Contact me to be added to ping list.

[jazusamo]

Good, you alreday posted. :-)

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

It would be hard to spin a Dem victory in that District as anything less than a significant Republican setback.

How do you figure?

Murtha won by 22% in 2006, and by 19% in 2008. This current poll - cooked, stilted, unreliable as it is, as has been noted throughout this thread - has Critz up by 6%. Even if the GOP doesn't manage to squeak this one by, an extremely close race in and of itself will represent a double-digit swing to the GOP, even in the PA-12, a district where the Dems have huge institutional and registration advantages.

[smoothsailing]

Both Critz and Burns have no military service

Critz is a veteran of the Army National Guard.

Of all 7 of the candidates in the primaries and special election,4 Dems, 2 Repubs, 1 Libertarian, 6 are veterans. Burns is the only one who has never served a day in uniform.

[jazusamo]

Thanks, I wasn’t aware of his NG service.

[smoothsailing]

This poll was commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. They endorsed Burns in the special election.

One of the more telling results is this quote...

"Critz's lead expands to 19 percentage points among so-called super voters, those who voted in at least three of the past four primaries"

Murtha aide pulls ahead in special election race

[Clemenza]

Why should we be surprised? This is a historically Dem district that loves its pork. Who gives a damn if the people are “socially conservative” when they love their bennies from Uncle Sam?

[jazusamo]

I think it’ll be very tough for Burns to beat Critz. If it was one poll it might not mean much but with Critz jumping ahead in most all of them it seems to show a trend.

I don’t know how they separate out people who voted in 3 out of the last 4 primaries but that seems to me to be stretching it a bit and 19 points is a huge difference.

[smoothsailing]

With Burns at 38% with only 6 days to go, I don't see him winning period. The only hope is the same as it's always been, Russell has to win the primary.

[smoothsailing]

I think it’ll be very tough for Burns to beat Critz. If it was one poll it might not mean much but with Critz jumping ahead in most all of them it seems to show a trend.

Susquehanna Polling and Research, a Republican firm, has a fresh poll Wednesday showing Mr. Critz leading Republican businessman Mr. Burns by six points, 44 percent to 38 percent. That's similar to what Mr. Critz's internals showed last week, when a Global Strategy Group poll gave him 44 percent of the vote to Burns's 36 percent.

[Despot of the Delta]

According to the WJAC news and Fred Smith head of Cambria County election office Dems in Cambria County are switching to Reps in large numbers.

[jazusamo]

Well, the end is near and we’ll know in less than a week. Like you said, the important thing is Bill Russell winning the primary, the general is less than six months away.

[smoothsailing]

Well, the end is near and we’ll know in less than a week

Isn't that the truth. We've been chasing this Murtha monster together for 4 years now, Jaz, I for one will be glad when it's finally over! As much as I admire and respect Col. Russell, Murtha's croaking has taken some of the fun out of it. LOL!

[jazusamo]

LOL!

You couldn’t have expressed my feelings any better. Though I’m not happy about the way Murtha vacated his seat the most important thing is it will be filled by someone other than him. No matter who fills that seat Capitol Hill will be the better off for it.

[smoothsailing]

According to the WJAC news and Fred Smith head of Cambria County election office Dems in Cambria County are switching to Reps in large numbers.

Large numbers, surely you jest.

Cambria County election director Fred Smith told WJAC-TV many voters switched parties this year. The county has more than 90,000 registered voters, 106 switched to Democrats and 239 switched to Republican.

[smoothsailing]

Though I’m not happy about the way Murtha vacated his seat

It was a disappointing exit! I had to throw to away my tar and feathers. Just hate it when that happens. :o)

[jazusamo]

ROFL!

I would have preferred the tar and feathers route also. ;-)

[PA Engineer]

Part of the problem are these damn radio adds that are going unchallenged. In the adds they basically say “The millionaire wants to raise your taxes 23%”. The adds are payed for by government unions. They need to turn this around. Adds that use ridicule of democrats protecting people from tax increases would be effective.

[smoothsailing]

I would have preferred the tar and feathers route also. ;-)