Nice analysis. Academically speaking though, I like the idea of a suitcase nuke. Far more delicate of an operation, indeed, but more potential for obfuscation of blame.
But, I do understand that the first country to get caught using a nuke will be the focus of all. For instance, the consequence of Iran using a nuke on Israel will be short-sighted. Even the Kingdom will be obliged to attack Iran if for no other reason then survival (sunni-shia thing, IIRC).
If the USA were to go that route, we might as well drop half the arsenal on many targets. God, I hope we never come to that unless there is the second coming.
Something to remember: There was a terrorist attack on the Grand Mosque itself back a few years ago.
The idea of a suitcase nuke IS pretty good. But something tells me in the pit of my stomach that the Kingdom has thought of that, and MAY have radiological scanners at entrance points to the Grand Mosque.
Then again, I may be wrong. I think the Kingdom KNOWS that someone may attack, but I am not so sure they HAVEN’T ruled out a small nuke. I mean, wouldn’t it be in the spirit of Islamic arrogance to think “What nation or people would POSSIBLY think to destroy the Grand Mosque?”.