Posted on 03/31/2010 6:31:13 AM PDT by bilhosty
When Republican Senator Christopher Bond of Missouri announced that he would not run for reelection, his seat seemed ripe for a Democratic pickup. Barack Obama had just narrowly missed carrying Missouri by 3,903 votes, Democrat Jay Nixon had just been elected governor, Democrat Clair McCaskill had defeated incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent in 2006 and Democrats had a ready-made candidate in Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Governor Mel Carnahan and of former Senator Jean Carnahan, sister of 3rd district Congressman Russ Carnahan and granddaughter of longtime (1945-47, 1949-61) 8th district Congressman A. S. J. Carnahan (born in 1897, he was apparently named for Confederate General Albert Sidney Johnson, an indication of the pro-Confederate heritage of many Missouri Democrats).
In addition, the lead Republican candidate, 7th district Congressman Roy Blunt, at first seemed to be burdened with disadvantages: he spent 14 years in Washington as a congressman, much of it as part of the Republican leadership, he is married to a Washington lobbyist and his son Matt Blunt left the governorship in 2008 after one term with a low job rating. But in the four public polls conducted this year, Blunt has led Carnahan by a 47%-41% margin. In the most recent, conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, he leads 45%-41%--despite the fact that his favorables/unfavorables are perfectly dreadful (25%-41%) and much lower than Carnahan’s (38%-43%). So what’s going on? Reaction to “President Obama’s health care plan” is hugely negative: only 37% support it and 54% oppose it. As PPP’s Dean Debnam writes, “The Missouri Senate race has very little to do with Roy Blunt or Robin Carnahan and everything to do with Barack Obama right now. If his numbers don’t improve it will be very hard for Carnahan to win.” This in a state where Obama won 49.23% of the vote, more than any Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
When I was in the polling business, we assume that any candidate with a favorables/unfavorables ratio of 25%-41% was a sure loser. Not so in Missouri this year, it appears. We are looking at something other than an ordinary political year.
More from Michael Barone •Tea partiers embrace liberty not big government •The Show Me State shows us something •More Democratic troubles on the Great Plains •Democratic incumbents in trouble in the Great Plains •Is the health care bounce history?
Follow The Examiner
Morning Must Reads -- Drill baby, drill (eventually) New York Times -- Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for First Time If the Senate is willing to get on board with global warning legislation, President Obama might...
—Chris Stirewalt
Larry King Live: Scott McClellan and David Frum afraid of 'outrageous' tea parties Who better to discuss the rise of Tea Party movement than two washed up former officials in the Bush administration clawing for their remaining minutes of fame? Former Bush...
—Charlie Spiering
Obama and Sarko are passive-aggressive! No please, you first. Beltway doesn't subscribe much to pop psychology, but the relationship between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and President...
—Julie Mason
Gingrich to announce whether he’s running for President in Feb. 2011 Examiner columnist Cal Thomas recently interviewed Newt Gingrich and asked the former Speaker of the House about his oft-speculated presidential bid: Q: When will you announce...
—Mark Hemingway
More Beltway Confidential posts...
Today’s Featured Writers
Michelle Malkin How the left fakes the hate: A primer
Noemie Emery Dems break spirit of law when enacting law
John Stossel Entitlement rip-off
Walter Williams The warmers strike back
Timothy P. Carney Obama, who 'excluded lobbyists', has appointed 50
Michael Barone Tea partiers embrace liberty not big government
Dems fear honest Obamacare accounting The Show Me State shows us something CNN lost “almost half” of their viewers in the last year With no big bounce from health care, Obama tries to create momentum Virginia’s ‘Tax Me More Fund’ is a big flop Get your free Barack Obama commemorative health care reform certificate today! Democrats threaten companies hit hard by health care bill Karzai will likely be unfazed by Obama's tough talk Top insurance exec: Your health premiums will go up, coverage will change under Obamacare Inside the numbers: Independents’ opposition to Obamacare is bad news for Dems
Examiner Political Tweets
Gadgets powered by Google
Gadgets powered by Google
That sums up the race in a nutshell. This is one of the few chances the Democrats have to pick up a Senate seat currently held by a Republican, but only if Obama's standing approves. Or if the economy does a dramatic turn-around. And right now I'm not seeing either happening.
Republican candidates, listen up. You have been given a gift by our oh so totalitarian president Obama, for the upcoming mid-term elections. The American people are more pissed off than any poll is going to show, and I think that you are going to see people vote straight line Republican tickets for one reason, and one reason only...
Healthcare, and the repal of a positively $hitty law..
Do not listen to the media, as they are already trying to ignore the fact that this law is the biggest power grab in American history. You are going to be given this opportunity, and I beg you...BEG YOU not to blow it!!
This is an opportunity to swing the pendulum back into conservative favor, even more so than normal, since it has been swung much too far into the liberal favor. Only if you keep your promises (from what I have been hearing form Pubbie candidates) to repeal healthcare, will you keep your jobs come the next election.
Make no mistake about it....this vote will be yours, but if you try to "play nice" and work with Dems on keeping this crappy law, you are going to feel the people's wrath as well.
We the people are sick and tired of the politics of politics. Your words better have actions tied to them, or you too will be on the ash heap of the political landfill when it is all over.
Just my .02..
What you said! bttt
I really don't like the guy. He's been in DC long enough. I lobbied what few people I know in the MOGOP to find someone else but they had made up their minds. The reasoning being only Bond can raise the money needed to beat Carnahan. We are stuck with him for this go 'round. I get the feeling he will retire after this term if he wins.
Chuck Purgason is my choice. Notice how the republican party snubs Chuck for their annoited name brand politician Washington DC insider?
It is obvious who the party yes men and insiders want for Senate.
But who does the people want for their choice? I am tired of the Republicans picking losers. Lets Chuck em!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.