Posted on 03/20/2010 10:06:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For Democrats to persuade swing Blue Dogs to vote for one of the largest expansions of government in American history, it was crucial that the media focus on the Congressional Budget Office’s bottom line — and ignore how it got there. Blue Dogs need to be able to tell their conservative constituents that they had voted for a bill that reduces the deficit, and it would help if that bill’s cost came in at under $1 trillion. Fortunately for Speaker Pelosi, the media played along.
Take the case of Rep. Betsy Markey (D., Colo.), who defeated three-term Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008. Musgrave was one of the House’s most outspoken conservatives on social issues; despite her defeat, John McCain won her district by one percentage point. Her constituents are a fairly conservative bunch, and Markey voted no on the health-care bill when it passed the House last November. Yet she announced Thursday that she will switch from no to yes on the new “deem and pass” health-care bill.
In winning Markey’s vote, Pelosi got a helpful assist from the Denver Post, which covered the switch this way: “The announcement by the vulnerable first-term Democrat . . . was seen as a sign that swing lawmakers are being won over by a new Congressional Budget Office analysis showing the bill will slash the deficit over the next two decades by more than $1.2 trillion.” Farther down, the story notes that the CBO analysis “found the bill will cost $940 billion over the next decade, paid for through a combination of costs savings and new taxes.”
But the CBO did not say that the bill would slash the deficit by over $1.2 trillion. The CBO said the bill would reduce the deficit by $138 billion in the first decade. For the second decade, CBO wrote that “CBO does not generally provide cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget projection period,” but that its “rough outlook” put the number “in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of gross domestic product (GDP).” CBO also noted that “the imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO’s 10-year budget estimates.” Where did the Democrats get $1.2 trillion? They made it up — and practically every major news outlet in the country reported it as CBO gospel. GDP projections over ten-year windows are fraught with uncertainty, but projections beyond ten years are little better than blind guesses.
Even the $138 billion in deficit reduction and the $940 billion in total spending are misleading, the result of legislative legerdemain that starts taxing now but delays most of the spending. Obamacare will spend $17 billion over the first four years and $923 billion over the last six. But most of the revenue provisions — cuts to Medicare, penalties for not having insurance, and new taxes — kick in right away. As Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) noted at last month’s health-care summit, the CBO’s ten-year score includes ten years of revenue to pay for six years of spending, and even then the purported deficit reduction amounts to less than 10 percent of this year’s deficit ($1.4 trillion).
Another late-switching Blue Dog was Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D., Fla.), who got the Orlando Sentinel to parrot the CBO’s numbers without revealing the tricks that yielded them. Kosmas, the Sentinel reported, “cited recent estimates by the Congressional Budget Office that calculated the healthcare package would create $940 billion in new government spending over 10 years but would reduce the federal deficit by $138 billion over the same period.”
The national press was no better. “House unveils $940 billion health accord,” announced the Washington Post, without explaining the cost shift. (The Post also reported the $1.2 trillion figure as a CBO estimate rather than a Democratic-party talking point.) The New York Times offered hope with the headline, “Fine-tuning led to health bill’s $940 billion price tag.” But the actual piece disappointed: The biggest piece of fine tuning — the delayed implementation of the bill’s spending provisions — was left unexplained. Nor did either piece mention the other tricks Democrats resorted to in order to get the numbers they wanted from CBO, such as moving the “doc fix” (a restoration of $371 billion in Medicare payments to doctors) to a separate piece of legislation, so as not to have to account for its costs.
If Blue Dogs had been worried about facing skepticism from the media over the CBO’s numbers, we might not have seen so many switch their votes from no to yes. But such worries would have been misplaced. In this instance, the press was more than happy to repeat whatever numbers they were given. Whether this is an indictment of the media’s bias or its math skills is unclear.
— Stephen Spruiell is an NRO staff reporter.
The media claiming it was duped is like a ‘wheel man’ in a bank job claiming to be a cabbie who thought he was picking up fares.
Greg Mankiw has noted that the CBO has a very limited ability to analyze the macroeconomic impact of regulatory changes, including the impact of implicit marginal tax rates on work effort. From Mankiw:
“When CBO estimates the budgetary cost of such bills, it holds GDP constant. If you think (as I do) that large increases in marginal tax rates tend to depress labor effort and thus GDP, then you should be wary of claims based on CBO scores that the health reform bill is deficit neutral. Lower GDP will mean lower tax revenue and thus a larger budget deficit.”
“Second, don’t confuse uncertainty with bias. It’s true that the CBO’s estimates of the health-care reform bill are uncertain. But that cuts both ways. A lot of very respected health-care economists and experts think the CBO is being way too conservative in how much the bill’s payment reforms will save. Historically, CBO has frequently underestimated the savings from health-care reform legislation. To use one example, they heavily overestimated the cost of the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit.”
Let's see, spending more means spending less!
Makes sense to me!
Anybody who thinks the media is being duped in this process has no concept of what is going on.
“MEDIA DUPED”. That pretty much says it all. Or “Media duped by Obozo” works too.
KEEP THE CALLS UP! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE
Hold your own street protest in front of your reps local offices. Or busy street corners. Try and get the local media to cover it. Hammer the Medicare/SS issue, nothing like mad grannies and gramps.
This is from a 2007 contact list of congressional aides. Some might not be there any longer, but worth a try. The ones on the one post are senate aides, a few have bounced back, it’s worth the effort to clog up their email system along with the phones, and 1/3rd of these senators are up for re-election.
Mail must be inspected for anthrax takes 2 weeks, so if you snail mail send a post card
Contact congressional aides.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1857768/posts
U.S. Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121
U.S. House switchboard: (202) 225-3121
White House comments: (202) 456-1111
Find your House Rep.: http://www.house.gov/writerep
Find your US Senators: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
Toll free to the US Senate:
1-800-882-2005. (Spanish number)
1-800-417-7666. (English number)
Courtesy of a pro-amnesty group, no less!!
Defeat Obamacare call list: List now contains the new MAYBES culled from FR posts. Be sure to call KNOWN RINOS too.THEY ARE ANSWERING THEIR LOCAL NUMBERS
Here is one of the ones Rush gave out on the radio that I’m calling. So far it’s been busy but I’m going to burn it up till I get to tell my congress critter to vote NO!
Join me?..... 1-877-762-8762
CODE RED Contact list http://www.nrcc.org/CodeRed/targets/
Remember they are all being offered BRIBES for their votes. Ask them how much their bribe price is.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has published a target list on health care. In addition to continuing to contact the five Tennessee Democrat Congressmen, you can go http://www.votervoice.net/link/clickthrough/ext/94697.aspx to contact some of these targets. Much of the talk following Obama’s announcement has focused on how to defeat this second bill through reconciliation, but that is misleading because the first step to defeating Obamacare is not by concentrating on defeating the “fixer” bill but by defeating the Senate bill in the House when it goes to the floor for an up-or-down vote on Sunday March 21st.
Good idea from the bloggers at Hillbuzz:
http://hillbuzz.org/2010/03/17/action-items-march-17th-2010/
They offer specifics and links on how to put pressure on Dem DONORS, who have private numbers for legislators who may have taken their phones off the hook.
Congress may not want to hear from us, but they’ll listen to the money men.
Call them and fax them them instead of telling us you don’t trust them.
www.faxzero.com for two free faxes a day.
www.gotfreefax.com for another 2 free faxes per day.
Congressional Dems on Twitter
http://www.arrghpaine.com/congressional-dems-on-twitter
RUSH says to pressure these 2
Charles Wilson, Ohio Toll Free Number 888-706-1833 DC (202) 225-5705 fx: (202) 225-5907, Bridgeport, (740) 633-5705 fx: (740) 633-5727, Canfield, (330) 533-7250 fx: (330) 533-7136 Marietta, : (740) 376-0868 fx: (740) 376-0886 Ironton, (740) 533-9423 fx: (740) 533-9359 Wellsville, 330) 532-3740 Canfield, here is the zip code 44406.
Joe Cao DC (202) 225-6636 Fax: (202) 225-1988, NO (504) 483-2325 Fax: (504) 483-7944
NEW FLIPPERS
Rep. Bart Gordon TN (202) 225-4231 Fax: (202) 225-6887 Murfreesboro, TN 37130
(615) 896-1986 Cookeville (931) 528-5907 Gallatin, (615) 451-5174
Mark Schauer D.C. (202) 225-6276 Fax: (202) 225-6281 Jackson, MI (517) 780-9075
Fax: (517) 780-9081 Toll-Free: (877) 737-6407
Dennis Kucinish, Lakewood 216)228-8850, Fax (216)228-6465,
Parma. 440)845-2707, Fax (440)845-2743, DC (202)225-5871
Dennis Cardoza DC (202) 225-6131, Fax: 225-0819, 800-356-6424, Merced, (209) 383-4455 Fax: 726-1065 Modesto 209) 527-1914 Fax: 527-5748 Modesto, (209) 527-1914
Fax: 527-5748
Jim Costa Fresno 559-495-1620, Fax:559-495-1027, Bakersfeld, 661-869-1620 Fax: 661-869-1027 DC Phone:202-225-3341 Fax: 202-225-9308 Fax (202)225-5745
James Oberstar (202) 225-6211, Duluth (218) 727-7474, Chisholm (218) 254-5761, Brainerd (218) 828-4400, North Branch, (651) 277-1234
Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District
John Boccieri (D), Ohio Voted Yes on Stupak, NO on Health Care.Contact info - DC office (202) 225-3876 - Fax - (202) 225-3059 (330) 489-4414, Local Fax - (330) 489-4448
Betsy Markey DC 202.225.4676, fx. 202.225.5870, Ft. Collins, 970.221.7110fx 970.221.7240, Greeley, 970.351.6007 fx 970.351.6068, Lamar, 719.931.4003
fx 719.931.4005, Sterling, 970.522.0203 fx 970.522.1783
Alan Boyd FL DC 202) 225-5235, (202) 225-5615 Fax Tallahassee (850) 561-3979
(850) 681-2902 Fax Panama City (850) 785-0812 (850) 763-3764 Fax
S. Kosmos FL DC (202) 225-2706 Fax: (202) 226-6299, Port Orange, FL 32129
Phone: (386) 756-9798 Fax: (386) 756-9903 Orlando, FL 32826
Phone: (407)-208-1106 Fax: (407)-208-1108
Brad Ellsworth IN Evansville (812) 465-6484 fx: (812) 422-4761 Terre Haute (812) 232-0523 fx: (812) 232-0526 DC ph: (202) 225-4636 Toll Free: (866) 567-0227
fx: (202) 225-3284
John Tanner (202) 225-4714, Union City, (731) 885-7070, Jackson Phone: (731) 423-4848, Millington (901) 873-5690 TN (RETIREING, His going away present to the USA.
Thinks you are harassing him! Rep. John Garamendi’s (CA-10) (202) 225-1880
Fax: (202) 225-5914 Walnut Creek, (925) 932-8899 fax: (925) 932-8159 Antioch (925) 757-7187 Fax: (925) 757-7056 Fairfield, Phone: (707) 438-1822 Fax: (707) 438-0523
MOVED TO UNDECIDED
rec’d from NCTeaParty.com — Despite earlier assurances that he was a NO on health care reform and would not change his mind, Rep. Heath Shuler, NC 11, is now undecided.
Rep. Heath Shuler, North Carolina 11th http://shuler.house.gov/ DC Office Number: (202) 225-6401, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-6422 Local Office Number: (828) 252-1651, Local Fax Number: (828) 252-8734 Chief of Staff: Hayden Rogers email: hayden.rogers@mail.house.gov
Lincoln Davis 202.225.6831Fax: 202.226.5172 Columbia Office 931.490.8675
Jamestown 931.879.2361 Fax: 931.879.2389 McMinnville, 931.473.7251 Fax: 931.473.7259
.............................................
Steve Cohen TN, DC (202) 225-3265 Fax: (202) 225-5663, Memphis, TN, 901) 544-4131 Fax: (901) 544-4329
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District
John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District
Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District
Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District
Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District
James Matheson Toll-Free Number 1 (877) 677-9743 (202) 225-3011Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI (MAYBE)
Brian Baird (202) 225-3536, Vancouver, (360) 695-6292. Olympia, (360) 352-9768, (MAYBE)
senator mark begich (202) 224-3004 toll free. (877) 501 - 6275 just became a MAYBE
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI (MAYBE)
Brian Baird (202) 225-3536, Vancouver, (360) 695-6292. Olympia, (360) 352-9768, (MAYBE)
senator mark begich (202) 224-3004 toll free. (877) 501 - 6275 just became a MAYBE
NEW NO’s
Jason Altmire 202-225-2565, Aliquippa, 724-378-0928, Natrona Heights, 724-226-1304 (NO)
Michael A. Arcuri (NY-24) NO
Harry Teague NM NO
And here are toll-free numbers we can use to call any Senators or Reps.
At the first number below you must wait through a tape recording urging you to tell your Rep or Senator to vote “yes” for the health care bill. Just hang on and when the recording is over, you will get the Capitol operator. Just ask for your Rep or Senator’s office. Then you will either talk to an aid or have the chance to leave a message for him/her to vote NO on the health care bill.
When you use the second number and the Capitol operator comes on, just ask for your Rep or Senator’s office. Every time I use this number I get the Rep or Senator’s answer machine, so it may be set up that way all the time...to go to their answer machine. Either way you can leave a message to vote NO on the health care bill!
We need to use these toll free numbers that have been set up for the health care/ BO supporters and illegals to use! After all they are FREE!
1-866-220-0044, 1-866-338-1015, 877-851-6437, 877-210-5351
If the media were “duped”, then it is only because they wanted to be duped.
Most of these journalists are looking for a job with the Democratic Party administration if they end up losing their jobs at the various newspapers and networks.
Not duped.
Willing co-conspirators.
To believe the "News" is somehow based in interpretation/mis-interpretation is to believe in the Tooth Fairy.
NOTHING that is said is done without pre-review from the Power House in charge for suitability to release the info to "The People" (aka, serfs, peons, peasants, etc.)
Organized crime families bribed and offered protection for those who paid them; nothing different going on amongst Democrats and this HC bill that I can see. Course the gangsters ended up in jail. Democrats think they are close to owning a country.
Shoot, I'd rather have Don Corleone watching my back then those thieves in Washington.
Exactly - while I do not normally have the stomach for network news, I got home a little early and saw a CBS piece on the wonders of the health care bill - plus a promise for future wonders tomorrow. They have to had filmed this previously, like a good PR firm.
Tuned to CNN for 2 minutes and caught Mr 360 in full health care wonderment mode. New (CNN) polls show (hold your breath) most people support the new bill.
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