FACT CHECK: Dueling polls and dubious stats

AP on Yahoo ^ | 2/25/10 | Calvin Woodward and Jim Drinkard - ap

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON – Beware of politicians quoting poll numbers. That was one lesson from the White House health policy conference Thursday as lawmakers in both parties cherry-picked survey results, ignored contrary findings and presented public opinion, which is highly nuanced on these questions, as a slam-dunk.

Claims, counterclaims and statistics flew through the room in the daylong talkfest by President Barack Obama and lawmakers from both parties. Some didn't hold up to the facts. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada suggested his party hasn't been preparing to do an end-run around the normal legislative process to pass a health care bill, when in reality this option is very much in play. Obama squabbled with a Republican senator over what his initiative might do to health premiums, and had a superior command of the facts.

[throwback]

Does AP write this stuff themselves or is it just faxed over from the White House. Surely there's some cost savings that could be recognized there, so that AP could cut out some unnecessary staff.

[Recon Dad]

I think it’s best we see how the poll comes out November 4th.

[musicman]

[CherylMc]

The part of the article most laughable is: “McConnell’s device of averaging polls to come up with a precise result is dubious. Because polls are often taken at different times, with different sample sizes, margins of error and ways of wording their questions, combining them may not yield a valid result. McConnell aides cited CNN, NPR and Quinnipiac polls taken at various times in January.”

Lets check those “different time, different sample sizes, margins of error” and “ways of wording” to see how hard it is to get a “precise result.” (Sorry this is so long, but I have to include all of the points that seem to confuse them.)

FEBRUARY 24, 2010 - FOX NEWS -
900 Registered Voters

Question Asked: “If President Obama can’t work
out a compromise with Congressional Republicans
at the health care summit, do you think he
should drop the current health care bill and
start over later, or try to pass the current
bill without Republican support?”

Pass Current= 34% / Drop-Start Over= 59%
Margin/Error=3%
____________________________________________
FEBRUARY 23, 2010 - USA TODAY/GALLUP -
1009 Americans

Question asked: “Suppose the two sides do not
reach agreement on a bill. Would you strongly
favor, favor, oppose or strongly oppose Congress
passing a healthcare bill similar to the ones
proposed by President Obama and the Democrats
in the House and Senate?”

Support= 40.3% / Oppose= 51.3%
Strongly Support= 11% / Strongly Oppose= 23%
Margin of Error= 4%
______________________________________________

FEBRUARY 22, 2010 - RASMUSSEN -
1000 likely voters

Question Asked: “Generally speaking, do you
strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose
or strongly oppose the health care reform plan
proposed by President Obama and the congressional
Democrats?”

Support= 41.0% Oppose= 56.0%
Strongly Support= 23% / Strongly Oppose= 45%
Margin of Error= 3%
_______________________________________________

FEBRUARY 18, 2010 - PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES -
900 Registered Voters

Question Asked: “Overall, given what you know
about them, would you say you support or oppose
the proposed changes to the health care system
being developed by Congress and the Obama
administration?”

Margin of Error= 3.27%
Support= 40.0% Oppose= 52.0%
__________________________________________________
FEBRUARY 18, 2010 - NEWSWEEK -
1009 Americans

Question Asked: “As you may know, Barack Obama
has proposed a plan to change this country’s
health care system. From what you have seen or
heard about what he has proposed, what is your
OVERALL opinion of Obama’s health care reform
plan – do you favor it or oppose it?”

Support= 40.0% Oppose= 49.0%
Margin of Error= 3.6%
___________________________________________________

February 15, 2010 - CNN -
1023 Adults, including 954 registered voters

Question Asked: “What do you think Congress
should do on health care — pass a health care
bill similar to the legislation that Congress
has been working on for the past year, start
work on an entirely new bill, or stop working
on any bills that would change the country’s
health care system?”

Pass sim. bill= 25% / Work on new bill= 48%
Margin/Error=3.0%
_________________________________________________

FEBRUARY 10, 2010 - KAISER -
1201 Adults

Question Asked: “As of right now, do you
generally support or generally oppose the
health care proposals being discussed in
Congress? Is that strongly support/oppose or
somewhat support/oppose?”

Support= 41.0% Opposed= 41.0%
Strongly Support= 24% / Strongly Oppose= 32%
Margin/Error= NOT DISCLOSED
________________________________________________

FEBRUARY 9, 2010 - PEW -
1383 Americans

Question Asked: “As of right now, do you
generally favor or generally oppose the
health care bills being discussed in
Congress?”

Support= 38.0% Oppose= 50.0%
Margin of Error= 3.5%
______________________________________________________

FEBRUARY 8, 2010 - ABC NEWS/WASH POST -
1004 Adults

Question Asked: “Overall, given what you
know about them, would you say you support
or oppose the proposed changes to the health
care system being developed by Congress and
the Obama administration? Do you feel that
way strongly or somewhat?”

Support= 46.0% Oppose= 49.0%
Strongly Support= 29% / Strongly Oppose= 33%
Margin/Error=3.5
_____________________________________________

FEBRUARY 8, 2010 - QUINNIPIAC -
2617 Registered Voters

Question Asked: “From what you’ve heard or
read, do you mostly approve or mostly
disapprove of the proposed changes to the
health care system under consideration in
Congress?”

Support= 35.0% Oppose= 54.0%
Margin of Error= 1.9%
________________________________________________________

Looks like a “precise result” to me.... or am I missing something?