Skip to comments.North American snow models miss the mark – observed trend opposite of the predictions
Posted on 02/20/2010 2:13:11 AM PST by justa-hairyape
While some other bloggers and journalists insist that recent winter snows are proof of global warming effects, they miss the fact that models have been predicting less snow in the northern hemisphere. See this 2005 peer reviewed paper:
Frei, A. and G. Gong, 2005. Decadal to Century Scale Trends in North American Snow Extent in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 32:L18502, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023394.
It says exactly the opposite of what some are saying now. Anthony
A 2005 Columbia University study titled WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT SNOW COVER OVER NORTH AMERICA? ran nine climate models used by the IPCC, and all nine predicted that North American winter snow cover would decline significantly, starting in about 1990.
In this study, current and future decadal trends in winter North American SCE (NA-SCE) are investigated, using nine general circulation models (GCMs) of the global atmosphere-ocean system participating in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4)....all nine models exhibit a clear and statistically significant decreasing trend in 21st century NA-SCE..
Some of the models predicted a significant decline in winter snow cover between 1990 and 2010.
As we know, winter snow cover has actually increased about 5% since it bottomed in 1989, and is now close to a record maximum.
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
(NaturalNews) Global warming is predicted to be the cause of a massive drought that will threaten the lives of millions and take over half the land surface on our planet in the next 100 years, according to Britain's leading climatologists.
Extreme drought, which makes modern agriculture virtually impossible, is seen by a new study from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research as possibly affecting about one-third of the planet in the next century. These predictions may actually be an underestimation, said the climate scientists who released the results of the study.
Said Andrew Pendleton of Christian Aid, "this is genuinely terrifying it is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will mean migration off the land at levels we have not seen before, and at levels poor countries cannot cope with."
But now, only about 7 percent of the country is experiencing drought conditions, down from a peak of close to 50 percent in August 2007. Only small parts of Hawaii are currently under "extreme" drought conditions.
...Simulations using higher atmospheric CO2 levels generally predict drier summers at northern high latitudes (e.g., Gregory et al., 1997). In these regions, less winter precipitation falling as snow and warmer temperatures leads to an earlier drying of soils in the spring, increasing the likelihood of drought. Other areas strongly affected by snow, such as mountainous watersheds, will be similarly affected. An increase in the ratio of rain to snow, accelerated spring snowmelt, and a shorter snow season will lead to more rapid, earlier, and greater spring runoff but reduced summer flow.
Ping - pong.
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Global warming is more than a third to blame for a major drop in rainfall that includes a decade-long drought in Australia and a lengthy dry spell in the United States, a scientist said on Wednesday.
What he found was an underlying trend where rainfall over the past 15 years or so has been steadily decreasing, with global warming 37 percent responsible for the drop.
"The 37 percent is probably going to increase if global warming continues," Baines told Reuters from Perth in Western Australia, where he presented his findings at a major climate change conference.
Baines' analysis revealed four regions where rainfall has been declining. The affected areas were the continental United States, southeastern Australia, a large region of equatorial Africa and the Altiplano in South America.
The U.S. West will see devastating droughts as global warming reduces the amount of mountain snow and causes the snow that does fall to melt earlier in the year, a new study says.
By storing moisture in the form of snow, mountains act as huge natural reservoirs, releasing water into rivers long into the summer dry season.
"We're losing that reservoir," said research leader Tim Barnett, an oceanographer and climate researcher at the University of California, San Diego.
"Spring runoff is getting earlier and earlier in the year, so you have to let water go over the dams into the ocean."
What's been occurring recently, he said, is different from natural variability and is driven by the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.
Scientists sometimes refer to the effect a hotter world will have on this countrys fresh water as the other water problem, because global warming more commonly evokes the specter of rising oceans submerging our great coastal cities. By comparison, the steady decrease in mountain snowpack the loss of the deep accumulation of high-altitude winter snow that melts each spring to provide the American West with most of its water seems to be a more modest worry. But not all researchers agree with this ranking of dangers. Last May, for instance, Steven Chu, a Nobel laureate and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, one of the United States governments pre-eminent research facilities, remarked that diminished supplies of fresh water might prove a far more serious problem than slowly rising seas. When I met with Chu last summer in Berkeley, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which provides most of the water for Northern California, was at its lowest level in 20 years. Chu noted that even the most optimistic climate models for the second half of this century suggest that 30 to 70 percent of the snowpack will disappear. Theres a two-thirds chance there will be a disaster, Chu said, and thats in the best scenario.
At least 38 people are dead after an avalanche buried an entire village in north-west Pakistan.
The avalanche hit a remote village in Kohistan district, about 200km (124 miles) north of Islamabad.
Local government head Aminul Haq told the BBC that the eventual death toll could exceed 56, as many others are missing.
According to most recent reports from the area, 38 bodies had been dug up by the villagers before sunset, he said.
The regional police chief said roads had been blocked by landslides and several feet of snow.
Ask yourself, "If the science is so bad, how it it get this far?" Because it is not about science.
International The News
Thursday, February 18, 2010
By Delawar Jan
PESHAWAR: Dozens of villages in Kohistan and other areas of Dir Upper district remained cut off from the rest of the country because of heavy snowfall, causing food shortage and other problems.
The main bazaar in Dir town opened after three days but shopkeepers said vehicles were still unable to move due to piles of snow and people stayed at homes. Thousands of people in Kohistan, Barawal, Qulandi, Dobando, Hatan Darra and other areas have been snowed in for the last several days, leaving them vulnerable to the severity of the weather.
The snowfall in Dir Upper broke records. It was the severest in 20 years in Dir town and in 40 years in the mountainous areas. The snow has rendered the main Dir-Peshawar and other link roads treacherous and some road accidents were also reported. I met an accident during the blizzard in Chukiatan, but thank God I remained unhurt. The vehicle skidded onto the mountainside and turned over, Wahidullah told The News by phone.
Talking to The News from Sheringal, a town on the way to upper parts of Dir-Kohistan, Zahir Shah said the heavy snowfall had paralysed life in Sheringal and people had been facing problems. Today, vehicles could come to Sheringal but still they could not manage to come to the main bazaar due to heavy snow, he said.
The transporters, he added, were taking advantage of the snowy and stormy conditions and charging passengers Rs200 fare between Dir and Sheringal against the normal Rs70. Roads to Patrak, Gwaldai, Dhog Darra, Kalkot, Thal and dozens of other villages are still blocked and there is no sign that the snow would be cleared in the coming days. People are trying to shovel snow away but they are unable to remove huge piles of snowfall manually. The administration has yet not sent bulldozers to clear roads leaving thousands of people stranded in Kohistan, Zahir Shah said.
Muhammad Ali, the Jamaat-e-Islami leader in Dir-Kohistan, phoned reporters and asked for help from the government. He said their area had been cut off for the last 12 days as roads had been blocked since the second spell of snowfall.
After the first heavy snowfall in the second week of February, we cleared the road from Kalkot to Patrak with the help of volunteers after several days but the next day the fresh snowfall lashed the area and blocked the road, he narrated.
Mohammad Ali said now some 500 people from various villages had volunteered to clear the road and said they had removed snow with shovels from 10-kilometre area. He said the area had run out of food supplies while small local bazaars had also been closed due to blizzard. People are slaughtering cattle to eat to survive, Mohammad Ali claimed.
He said they had been unable to shift the patients to Dir town due to closure of the road. A woman died during delivery in Kalkot because she could not be shifted to hospital, he said and added the local people took a body of a man on their shoulders from Patrak to far-off Kalkot due to absence of public transport and closure of the road.
Abidullah, a shopkeeper in Dir town said the bazaar opened after three days but vehicles could not move due to huge amount of snow. There is snow in front of every shop, forcing customers to stay away, he said.
Dir-Chitral road has also been blocked since the snowfall on February 12. The road was already blocked at Lowari Top for two months but vehicles were allowed to use the newly excavated tunnel. Now the approach road from Dir to the tunnel and Ziarat to Darosh is, however, covered with several feet of snow.
A University of Montana study led by acclaimed scientist Steven Running shows that climate change will significantly extend drought periods in the Northern Rockies, stressing forests and inviting more frequent and virulent wildfires.
Here are highlights of the research, straight from the UM statement:
-- By about the 2080s, hotter temperatures could cause about two months of additional drought.
-- Regional forests will see fewer days with snow on the ground, an earlier peak snowmelt, a longer growing season, and increasing drought stress, which in turn will increase insect infestations and wildfires.
-- Carbon uptake could be reduced and so disrupted that most forests in the region would switch from absorbing carbon to releasing it by late this century.
-- Even if future climate change is less severe than projected, serious impacts are expected. Forests are already being transformed by global warming, Running said, particularly since northern Rocky Mountains forests live in a perpetually water-limited state.
-- Over this century, the region could see an annual average warming trend of 3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit, with winter temperatures expected to increase more than temps in other seasons.
The water shortages gripping the western US are the result of global warming, not natural variations in climate, according to a bleak study by hydrologists. The results suggest that water disputes will plague the region in the future and damage economic growth unless action is taken now, warn researchers.
About 60% of the changes seen in river flow in the western US are due to warming caused by humans, their study suggests.
Key indicators have hinted at looming water problems for many years. More rain and less snow has been falling in mountain ranges such as the Rockies, for example. River levels, which depend on melting snow from the mountains during the spring and summer, have fallen as a result.
Spring temperatures also increased by around 0.35 °C per decade during the second half of the last century, further cutting snow levels.
As global warming continues to alter the climate, scientists agree that such boom and bust cycles will become more severe. Droughts will become more common as the area's already strained water supplies are further depleted by longer dry spells, evaporation and even the increased thirst of vegetation trying to survive in hotter climes. And the rain that does come is likely to arrive in more violent storms.
"It's paradoxical," said Andrew Dessler, professor at Texas A&M's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. "But you can expect both more drought and more flood."
Tree ring records suggest that if past is prologue, global warming could trigger much longer dry spells than the one now in West, scientists say
Researchers examining ancient tree ring records have linked prolonged periods of epic drought in the West with warmer temperatures, suggesting that global warming could promote long-term drought in the interior West.
Analyzing North American tree ring data from the last 1,200 years, the research team found that severe, decades-long droughts settled over the West during the "> "Whether increased warmth in the future is due to natural variables or greenhouse [gases], it doesn't matter," said Edward R. Cook of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the lead author of a study published Thursday in the online edition of the journal Science. "If the world continues to warm, one has to worry we could be going into a period of increased drought in the western U.S. I'm not predicting that. [But] the data suggests that we need to be concerned about this."
The study, in which Cook was joined by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as the universities of Arizona and Arkansas, maps a 400-year period of recurring mega-droughts that make the West's current five-year dry spell look puny.
"Compared to the earlier 'mega-droughts' that are reconstructed to have occurred around AD 936, 1034, 1150 and 1253, the current drought does not stand out as an extreme event because it has not yet lasted nearly as long," the authors wrote. "This is a disquieting result because future droughts in the West of similar duration to those seen prior to AD 1300 would be disastrous."
Cook called the centuries between 900 and 1300 "the most persistently dry period on record in the last 1,200 years." Large portions of the West were gripped by droughts that lasted two or three decades at a time, dwarfing the current drought that, despite its comparative brevity, has dramatically shrunk reservoirs and raised the possibility of water shortages in the Colorado River Basin.
"So if we see warming in the future, that could lead to the same sort of cooler, eastern Pacific, drier West as we've seen in the past," Eakin said.
they miss the fact that models have been predicting less snow in the northern hemisphere....
I don’t think they “miss” it at all.
So they do not believe the models either ?
In a cynical way yes...
Having way more snow than predicted doesn’t fit their drought and dearth of snow “facts” much like the temperature models have been wrong.
Its an inconvenient truth.
NEW YORK, New York, April 5, 2007 (ENS) - Human-caused climate change is likely to lead to long periods of extreme drought throughout the American Southwest starting early this century, finds a new study released today by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a member of The Earth Institute at Columbia University.
The researchers compared the coming drought to the Dustbowl of the 1930s that sent millions of environmental refugees fleeing to California from across the Great Plains.
In contrast to past droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular pattern of change in sea surface temperature but seems to be the result of "an overall surface warming driven by rising greenhouse gases," researchers said.
February 2010 seems destined for the top 10 coldest Februarys in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, according to National Weather Service DFW records.
The average daily temperature logged for Feb 1-17 is 38.8 degrees, which places Feb of 2010 in the 4th place ranking for lowest average temperatures during the month, according to the data table on the right.
If we assume that temperatures each day for the rest of the month will average 50 degrees, which is the norm, wed still come in at 43.2 degrees average for the month, which would be 8th place.
Of course, 2010 has already safely secured the position of 2nd snowiest February and 2nd snowiest month overall (behind Feb. of 1978) on record.
If you've ever been soaked in a downpour, you know what happens when you finally get indoors and place your damp socks by a radiator or other source of heat: The heat evaporates the water and dries out the socks. So it comes as little surprise that rising global temperatures have a drying effect on the landscape. Indeed, the land area stricken by "serious drought" has more than doubled since the 1970s affecting about 30 percent of the world's land as of 2002, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research. About half of that change traces to rising temperatures as opposed to less rainfall or less snow.
The prolonged Arctic weather has left Scotland's deer population on the brink of starvation.
Thousands of red and roe deer have been left suffering after weeks of snow and ice have made it difficult for them to find food.
The authorities in Scotland have also warned walkers that it is likely they will stumble across the distressing sight of dead or dying animals in the coming weeks.
Climate Shift Is Blamed as Livelihoods Are Affected
Jonathan Overpeck, who directs the university- and government-funded Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona, said current drought and weather disruptions signal what is to come over the next century. Twenty-five years ago, he said, scientists produced computer models of the drought that Arizona is now experiencing.
"It's going to get warmer, we're going to have more people, and we're going to have more droughts more frequently and in harsher terms," Overpeck said. "We should be at the forefront of demanding action on global warming because we're at the forefront of the impacts of global warming. . . . In the West we're seeing what's happening now."
Thank you for this thread! Bookmarked for ammo.
I also bookmarked the thread. Someone could probably start a whole website illustrating some of the ridiculous past predictions of the Global Warming crowd. Contrasting those with current reality would be illustrating.
Where is AL GORE???????????
Thanks for the links and for your research. The answer is that the current snow here in Northern VA has nothing to do with Global Warming, Global Cooling, Global Changing or anything else like that. Many of the models predict that the southern jet would move further north and that was used as an arm-wave for the snow here in recent alarmist articles. But the fact is that the weather here was caused by El Nino causing an active southern stream (not further north) combined with a strong negative NAO which blocked the storms from going further north as they normally do (typically giving us more rain in El Nino years).
That latter factor (NAO) is not predicted by global warming modellers. It oscillates (along with PDO) and the models do not model the oscillation. That is a major and quite fatal flaw in the models. Note the difference between predicting negative NAO like this year's which is impossible, versus modeling the oscillation that resulted in this year's negative NAO phases which is possible to model in general (just not specifics). Within the large oscillations are smaller ones which they also fail to model. The net result is the models can't predict long term climate either because the long term climate depends on general weather patterns which they can't get right.
But the NAO is also negative.
There is also an AAO (currently negative) and a PNA (currently positive). Those are the other northern oscillations and patterns.
Here is the composite chart for temperature anomalies during all the recent El Nino events. Anomaly for Northern Virginia was neutral.
So yes. You needed more then El Nino. You needed El Nino and some Arctic air. However, a significant percentage of the moisture that was pulled into your storms, came up from the Gulf of Mexico (cold) and the Atlantic Coastal regions (cold).
Only a percentage of the moisture came up from the tropics over Mexico and entered into your storms. Hard to say how much. Probably no more then 50 %, just a wild guess after watching the radars.
The inaccurate and unverifiable temperature record has been unfortunately used by a lot of scientists and journalist to reach conclusions that only work in that fantasy land where the real and accurate data now exists.
GW is 100% bovine poop... any other response is just a lie...
Thanks for the charts, yes the AO was more anomalously negative, but correlated pretty well with the NAO.
True. The main effect of El Nino is from the strength of the southern stream storms (wet in Southern CA, drier in the Pac NW and BC). Normally the northern stream is much stronger. The storms cross Mexico and dry out but they don't lose their strength. Then in the east the storm has to phase with the northern stream for us to get pasted. Normally phasing would take place further north or east from us, but our big storms phased over Cape Hatteras and off of Norfolk, VA. That effect was caused by a large blocking low over the Maritimes, caused by a huge blocking high over Greenland. Then we get gulf and Atlantic moisture but it is still an El Nino inspired storm.
Looking at some of the data available, hindsight is 20-20, but the last three months (dec,jan,feb) were worse then anything that occurred in 1977/1978. Moderate El Nino winter months during strong cold phase of sun. PDO and AO about the same, but have not looked at them in detail. That is why those records are going down. 77/78 though had a weird El Nino that delayed across a few central months. If you compare and cut those delayed months out, the corresponding anomalies charts say everything east of the Rockies stays colder then normal in Spring. Precip amounts will depend on strength of El Nino, but the way things are going, how could they not get hosed. We journey onward through new territory. We have not had this cold of a spring combined with a moderate El Nino in modern times, from what I can tell. Don't know exactly what that will mean, but it probably wont be good. Later.
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