Rosenberg: This Is A Houdini Recovery, And The Jobs Data Is Way Worse Than Official Numbers

Rosenberg: This Is A Houdini Recovery, And The Jobs Data Is Way Worse Than Official Numbers

In this morning's Breakfast With Dave newsletter, Rosie discusses offers his doubts on the "recovery" in light of blatantly weak data.

Breakfast With Dave: The economy continues to pull a rabbit out of the hat and expand even with contracting employment and bank credit. As we stated above with respect to Wal-Mart’s weak sales data, how did Mr. Market manage to ignore the labour market news yesterday.
All we hear from bullish strategists is that jobless claims are the key, and while they have been improving in recent months, yesterday’s data was disappointing in that claims rose 31,000 in the February 13 week, to 473,000. Unfortunately, that was the nonfarm payroll survey week.

While the number of continuing claims was unchanged at 4.56 million that understates the situation because when all the emergency benefit programs are included, the backlog of total unemployment claimants jumped 280k in the January 30 week to a whopping 11.7 million.

Rosenberg: This Is A Houdini Recovery, And The Jobs Data Is Way Worse Than Official Numbers

Thank you! I'm glad someone is finally acknowledging what the "man on the street" has known for a long time - this "recovery" ain't one! My fear is that things will get much, much worse while ner0_bama and the dims sit and fiddle, all the while wasting $trillions.

Permabears in denial. The bottom was nearly a year ago and they missed it. This bothers them.

There is no mystery in the recovery. Incomes have been maintained throughout by the huge swing in public finances, and for consumers by the reduction in business investment. Initially, consumption fell to finance a higher savings rate, to repair personal and corporate balance sheets. Since the turn of the financial markets last April, however, the savings rate has been stable and consumption has increased. There is no mystery as to what is funding this. Household sector net worth is up $5 trillion from the lows last March, on stronger stock and bond markets and a flat real estate market. Productivity soared as workers in unproductive lines were cut and access to credit for poor risks was eliminated. As a result, output has returned to pre crisis levels even with fewer people working, and consumption growth has resumed.

The American people are not out of work deadbeats. They own $67.5 trillion in assets and receive $11 trillion a year in disposable income, after taxes, not counting capital gains on that pool of assets. The poorest 10% of the population are not where the money is and do not drive consumption trends. Instead they ride them. As growth continues they will find work again and raise aggregate output, but it is already back to pre crisis levels without them.

There is nothing unusual in a particle of it. The recent recession (not current, it is already over) was sharper than the two immediately prior ones, and many causal journalist level observers don't remember ordinary recessions of this type and magnitude, but they are perfectly common in the historical record. And there is nothing unusual about this one, in timing or magnitude or the course of events.

You full of sh**. The recovery is non-existent and the recession is still on. I live in a small town, the Ace hardware, which has always been a going concern is failing, the owner had to take another job with the pharmacy and they have laid people off. One of the super markets in the area has cut people’s hours way down to the point the owner and his wife are manning two of the check out counters. Every where there are signs of businesses going under(people laid off stores that have never had problems shutting their doors). I don’t know where you live but if you can’t look around and see what is happening, I feel sorry for you. There is NO recovery, there is indeed still a recession on and people are still losing their jobs to the tune of half a million a week.

There are some on FR who think that everything will be just fine; I've been told that worrying about bank failures is stooopid and unhealthy. Total goobermint and private debt is in way excess of $50 trillion and we have another $50-$70 trillion of unfunded SS & MC liabilities that is figured for the last of the baby boomers that are just now starting to retire.

The SEC's Jan. 27, 2010 to allow MMMF's to deny payouts to investors is another big red flag, plus the FDIC is lowering its insurance coverage back to $100,000 beginning Jan. 1, 2014.

Yup, everything will just dandy in Utopio-Marxumville

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