Posted on 01/31/2010 7:16:48 PM PST by myknowledge
HOUSTON - This month Iraq will finalize contracts with the likes of ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and BP to develop some of its biggest oil fields. These giants are among the world's last remaining pockets of so-called "easy oil." They don't require ultradeep drilling or innovative production techniques, just the application of Big Oil know-how. No wonder the oil companies agreed to develop Iraq's fields without even getting an ownership stake in the fields and collecting as little as $1.15 per barrel recovered.
Given the size of Iraq's undeveloped giants there are no technical reasons why within 10 years the country can't supplant both Iran and Russia to become the world's No. 2 oil producer after Saudi Arabia. No wonder Iraq holds three of the top 10 fields of the future.
The world gets its daily ration of 85 million barrels of oil from more than 4,000 fields. Most of these are small, less than 20,000 barrels per day. Giants, producing more than 100,000 bpd, account for just 3%. Then there's the megafields that gush out 1 million bpd. These are the most important sources of energy in the world--fields worth fighting over. In figuring the top 10 fields of the future, we're not interested in most of the giants of yesteryear, and not necessarily even the giants of today. Just the giants of tomorrow--those fields that might not even be producing yet, but will likely be doing better than 1 million bpd a decade from now.
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The secret to Ghawar's longevity is water injection. Starting in the 1960s Saudi Aramco began injecting water underneath the oil around the outer borders of the field. Today the water flood is up to millions of barrels a day, with the oil floating up to the top of the reservoir on sea of water. In conversations with Forbes in 2008 Aramco executives insisted that by continuing to treat Ghawar with kid gloves they'll be able to coax 4 million bpd out of her for many years to come.
Coming in second is West Qurna, in Iraq, home to an expected 21 billion barrels of oil. This month a joint venture between ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell was awarded the contract to develop the 9 billion barrel first phase of the West Qurna oil field. They will aim to raise output from 300,000 bpd to 2.3 million bpd. It's tough to make the case that the two biggest oil companies from the countries that invaded Iraq in 2003 are getting a sweetheart deal. The contract calls for the government of Iraq to retain ownership of the field and the oil. Exxon and Shell, as contractors, are to be paid just $1.90 for each a barrel they produce.
Third is Majnoon, also in Iraq. At 13 billion barrels, these massive reserves are in a relatively small area near the Euphrates River in southern Iraq. The field's abundance was so mind-boggling that it was named Majnoon, Arabic for "crazy." This easy oil hasn't been developed in part because of its location so close to the Iranian border. In the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq war, managers reportedly buried the wells, concerned that they might be targeted by Iranian forces. The field produces just 50,000 bpd now, but has the potential to do 1.8 million bpd.
The Rumaila field in Iraq, with 17 billion barrels, is the fourth-largest field. In November, British giant BP and China National Petroleum Corp. won the first oil contract of the post-Saddam era to redevelop Rumaila. Located on the border with Kuwait, the field is already producing 1 million bpd, half of Iraq's total production. The partners intend to spend some $15 billion to treble that to 2.85 million bpd. That output would be enough to put Rumaila in second place worldwide after Saudi Arabia's Ghawar.
So what won't you see on this list? Mexico's Cantarell is nowhere to be seen. It used to be the second-biggest producer in the world, giving more than 2 million bpd; it's now in terminal decline, slipping below 400,000 bpd. Likewise Russia's Samotlor. It was the monster field of the Soviet Union, with production peaking at 3.5 million bpd in the 1970s. Today it's doing more like 350,000 bpd. No respect for China's biggest field Daging either; it still produces roughly 800,000 bpd but is in serious decline.
As for Canada's heralded oil sands region--sure it's a massive resource, but easy oil it ain't. Oil sands require monstrous amounts of water and natural gas to recover and process. A barrel of oil sands oil costs roughly 20 times more to produce than one from Iraq. And environmentalists think it's dirty.
Lots of oil provinces didn't quite make the cut. West Africa could see the biggest growth of all across Nigeria, Angola and Ghana--but so far no individual fields look big enough on their own. Same for Siberia, which has most of Russia's production, but from mature fields.
Saudi Arabia could have been better represented. Its 750,000 bpd Shaybah field was a runner-up. Iraq too. The government didn't receive any bids to redevelop the 8 billion barrel East Baghdad field because much of it lies under residential neighborhoods. And Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, has something like 8 billion barrels remaining, but it was damaged by overproduction in the latter years of Saddam's rule and won't likely regain its peak of 700,000 bpd. But it could.
Where else would you expect to see the world's largest known oil reserves other than the Middle East (and the Caspian)?
But the United States and Europe should not continue to import such a great quantity of oil from these political hotspot regions any more, but instead, look for more oil closer to home, or even fast-track the development of their domestic synthetic fuel industries.
Can anyone with expertise confirm this?
Cool map, BTW!
Nice summary...good catch...
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SO how do the Brazilian under salt discoveries rate? I thought they had lots of barrels, but expensive to produce.
Thanks so very much!
There is no reason why we can’t use our own oil.
save
bump
There are a whole bunch of “reasons” why we can’t use our own oil and they all sit on their butts in DC!
ANWR has only one singular exploratory well with the test result a long held secret by those that drilled it.
The Bering Sea is expected to have some oil/gas reserves but no massive field has ever been found as no significant exploration has ever been permitted.
I wonder if Sarah knows...?
Don't click on the pyramid with the eye, it will try to put malware on your computer.
The well was drilled about the time Sarah was graduating High School to competing in the Alaskan State Beauty Pageant.
I doubt Chevron contacted her then to share the results of a test well on Federal Land.
As a rule I NEVER would click on a pyramid with an eye, but thanks for the warning.
Lindsey Williams is a nut. I found much of what he says put in writing.
The Energy Non-Crisis by Lindsey Williams
http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis.html
Early in the first section he wrote:
“Mr. X then made the startling observation that the Federal government and the State government of Alaska had allowed only one pool of oil on the North Slope of Alaska to be developed.”
FALSE
Currently on the Alaska North Slope the following oil fields are in production:
Alpine
Fjord
Kolupik
Tarn
Meltwater
Kuparuk
Tabasco
West Sak
Silver Tip
Milne Point
Schrader Bluff
Eileen West End
Cascade
Midnight Sun
Northstar
Aurora
Prudhoe Bay
Lisburne
Point McIntyre
Niakuk
Elder
Sag Delta North
Endicott
Liberty
I copied this off the map I keep on my wall as a memento of working there.
Just the slightest bit of knowledge in this area quickly shows someone like him to be liar.
Don’t just take my word for the number of fields.
Go the Alaska Department of Natural Resources
The annual report list historic production and anticipated reserves from each oil field.
2007 Annual Report, July
Section Three
Historic and Forecast Production
http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/products/publications/annual/2007_annual_report/3_HistProj_2007.pdf
More specifically:
CHAPTER 4
Claim : Senator Chance had another question. “Mr. X, if you're convinced that the Federal government is out to nationalize the oil companies, undoubtedly you have a target date?”
Mr. X said, “Yes, Senator, we do. As oil companies we have already calculated that with present government controls and regulations, we as oil companies can remain solvent until 1982.”
False claim, proved by time.
- - - - - - -
CHAPTER 5
Now I cannot prove they didn't find a big Louisiana bull frog frozen in place several feet below the surface of the earth. And I cannot prove that after thawing it out, it didn't hop around.
But to say I'm a little skeptical, is putting it mildly.
- - - - - - -
CHAPTER 6
Claim : Canada has already nationalized its oil companies.
Canada did create Petro-Canada and later purchased Canadian retail stations of Gulf and Fina. Since then the government privatized it and eventually sold off all government owned shares. Other oil companies remained separate from the government the entire time.
- - - - - - -
CHAPTER 10
Claim : ARCO transferred to the State of Alaska the Dead Horse airstrip and camp. The camp itself was sold, but the airstrip was not, it being a gift. The company had put millions of dollars into that airstrip, and it was in fact the finest airstrip in the State.
Finest in the State? Maybe some believe a 6,500 gravel runway that was paved over in 1978 was the finest in Alaska.
But the people at the Eielson Air Force Base, Elmendorf Air Force Base and Anchorage International, which landed B-52s and 747’s on a regular basis back then, would probably disagree.
- - - - - - -
CHAPTER 10
Claim : Those people killed every bear in Prudhoe Bay: there's not a bear to be seen in the oil fields there now.
That one is actually funny. But after checking the bear watch report each time I visited the slope, I admit I was more than a bit concerned. Bears, although not always around, are far too common on the slope and have created many problems still even today.
You know what...I see tons of trash posted on FR every day! In fact, I just came from a thread where nearly the entire article and posts are trash.
Someone asked a question...late last night I posted links to articles I had saved re: oil reserves, especially in this country. They are what they are. Hit abuse and have the post removed for all I care.
Lindsey Williams foolish claims show up on Free Republic every 6 months or so.
I would like to think most of us would rather make our decision based on facts, not rumor and gossip.
Keep the link if you want. Expect criticism of it when you post it of Free Republic.
Cheers
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