These polls are all over the place. Brown down by 15% in one. Brown up 1% in another. Brown down by 9% in one poll. Brown up by 4% in another.
The one thing all the polls have in common is Coakly is above or close to 50% in all of them. She is going to be tough to beat in the most Liberal state in the union. Browns only hope is Liberal voters stay home in droves.
Another thing to keep in mind the SEIU has arrived in Boston. Ballot boxes will be stuffed in favor of Coakly.
Another thing to keep in mind the SEIU has arrived in Boston. Ballot boxes will be stuffed in favor of Coakly.
++++++++++++++++++++
If it’s close, and it looks like they stole it, this will be a legal circus of the utmost proportions...it may rival FL in 2000. Hanging chads anyone?
Hello 2009-11-22
I think you are mistaken. I have family in Mass. and am in the loop w/ the dynamics in the state. Coakly is going down. obummer’s actions are a good indicators — he’s not showing up!
I predict Brown wins (let’s see, what was it?) 59% to 41%
The poll showing Coakley up 15% was a joke back when it was done(ridiculous turnout assumptions), and is badly outdated to boot. Polls done since then have shown (i) Brown up 1% (PPP), (ii) Coakley up 2% among likely voters but Brown up 2% among those certain to vote (Rasmussen, which the prior week had found Coakley up 9% among likely voters but up only 2% among certain voters), (iii) Coakley up 8% in a poll sponsored by the liberal Blue Mass Group that shows a much narrower Brown lead among independents than any other poll (Research 2000) and (iv) this poll showing Brown up 4%.
Coakley’s internal polls from Wednesday reportedly show Coakley up 2% (48% to 46%) and “fading fast,” while Brown’s internals from the same day showed him up by 1% or 2%.
Basically, this appers to be a 2% race right now, with Brown having a slight advantage. This long weekend will be crucial to what happens on Tuesday. Coakley can still win it if turnout is much larger than expected, but, for the first time in this race, I believe that Brown is well positioned to win. I don’t want to jinx it, but it looks to me like a 49% to 47% Brown victory.
Scott is the best candidate the Republicans have produced in a long time in Massachusetts. Has his military duty kept him from running in previous races?
He turned David Rodham Gergen’s question back on him, he’s an Iraq/Afghanistan War Vet, he’s energetic, he’s smart, he speaks with authority.
He has run an excellent campaign, but all that being said he couldn’t count on the RNC or the NRSC for anything. Talk radio and the grassroots should get the credit if he pulls this thing out.
I just hope we don’t have a Dino Rossi/Al Franken redo with him up by a few hundred votes out of 1.5 to 2 million votes.
I think the polls could be tough because turnout will probably be higher than they expect. Scott must use his funds to not only run ads but get people to the polls, have people to be at the polls as republican officials, and have lawyers ready to
I would be checking the recount laws thouroughly NOW. Pray he wins by a big enough margin to avoid that.
West of Worcester (”Woo-stah”) she probably has support that runs in the 20s, if that.
As many have said, it's a numbers game. Turnout is important, but there is clearly no substitute for momentum, and it looks like that's in Brown's corner.
The great imponderable is the ACORN/SEIU factor. It'll doubtless be there in the cities, but after that....?
We'll see.
In the meantime, I'm finding myself scouring this board for every story about this election that I can get my hands on, it is that exciting!
Addictive, yes, but exciting!!!!
CA....
Coakley has not gotten 50% in any poll taken in the last week, but as you say, she is close in all of them. Excluding the Blue Mass poll (Blue as in Dem? I guess that's why their name has a (D) neside it.), Brown is close to 50% in all the polls in the last week. I don't know who will win, but it's possible Brown will come out on top.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Coakley (D) | Brown (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) | 1/12 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 49 | 41 | Coakley +8 |
| Suffolk | 1/11 - 1/13 | 500 RV | 46 | 50 | Brown +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/11 - 1/11 | 1000 LV | 49 | 47 | Coakley +2 |
| PPP (D) | 1/7 - 1/9 | 744 LV | 47 | 48 | Brown +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/4 - 1/4 | 500 LV | 50 | 41 | Coakley +9 |
| Boston Globe | 1/2 - 1/6 | 554 LV | 53 | 36 | Coakley +17 |
| Suffolk | 11/4 - 11/8 | 600 RV | 58 | 27 | Coakley +31 |
| Western NE College | 10/18 - 10/22 | 342 LV | 58 | 32 | Coakley +26 |
| Suffolk | 9/12 - 9/15 | 500 RV | 54 | 24 | Coakley +30 |