Solar Geomagnetic Index Reaches Unprecedented Low

Watts Up With That ? ^ | January 7, 2010 | Anthony Watts

[justa-hairyape]

Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low – only “zero” could be lower – in a month when sunspots became more active.

Back on December 12th 2009 I posted an article titled:

Solar geomagnetic activity is at an all time low – what does this mean for climate?

We then had a string of sunspots in December that marked what many saw as a rejuvenation of solar cycle 24 after a long period of inactivity. See December sunspots on the rise.

It even prompted people like Joe Romm to claim:

The hottest decade ends and since there’s no Maunder mininum — sorry deniers! — the hottest decade begins

But what Joe doesn’t understand is that sunspots are just one proxy, the simplest and most easily observed, for magnetic activity of the sun. It is the magnetic activity of the sun which is central to Svensmark’s theory of galactic cosmic ray modulation, which may affect cloud cover formation on earth, thus affecting global temperatures. As the theory goes, lower magnetic activity of the sun lets more GCR’s into our solar system, which produce microscopic cloud seed trails (like in a Wilson cloud chamber) in our atmosphere, resulting in more cloud cover, resulting in a cooler planet. Ric Werme has a nice pictorial here.

When I saw the SWPC Ap geomagnetic index for Dec 2009 posted yesterday, my heart sank. With the sunspot activity in December, I thought surely the Ap index would go up. Instead, it crashed.

[justa-hairyape]

Magnetic Activity on the Sun (represented by the Ap Index) crashes even though we just had a couple of weeks with a few sunspots. See link for more details and additional comments.

[American Constitutionalist]

Just wait when the scientist start to watch our sun start to rotate in the other direction, they will not know or comprehend what is happening and panic.

[UCANSEE2]

Ah heck. The magnetic poles on the Sun are getting ready to swap ends. No big deal. It happens every so often.

The Earth’s magnetic field has made quite a change lately as well. It’s response to the Sun’s magnetic reversal will be very interesting.

[justa-hairyape]

Here is the solar geomagnetic index Ap going back to 1933.

[UCANSEE2]

I don’t know if they will panic, but I think they will succeed in getting much of the public to panic over what may really be just another adjustment in our understanding of our solar system.

We really don’t know as much as we ‘think’ we do.

[justa-hairyape]

We really don’t know as much as we ‘think’ we do.

They will have a huge credibility issue if they try to make a 180 and warn everyone of the coming solar induced cold. The public simply wont buy it. Worse then the boy who cried wolf.

Ice Age is Coming...uh...no....Global Warming is Coming....uh...no...Climate Change is Coming...uh...no...Ice Age is Coming again.

[The Cajun]

I still think we are going into some type of minimum, hope it's more like the Dalton Minimum or less.
A Maunder type Minimum would kick our a$$ a lot worse.

[Talisker]

The magnetic poles on the Sun are getting ready to swap ends. No big deal

That's what you think:

[justa-hairyape]

Lowest Ap Index since we began keeping records in 1844. Never been this low before in recorded history.

[justa-hairyape]

But what exactly happens to the sun during a pole reversal ? Does geomagnetic activity crash during the changeover ? Will sunspots be no longer visible for decades during the switch ?

[xjcsa]

It even prompted people like Joe Romm to claim:

The hottest decade ends and since there’s no Maunder mininum — sorry deniers! — the hottest decade begins

I'm not sure Romm is aware that the Maunder Minimum was a specific historic event, not a generic name for cool periods. It's like talking about how many Hurricane Katrinas we'll have this year - the answer is none, but there will probably be hurricanes. We're not heading into a Maunder minimum any more than we're heading into a War of 1812. We may be heading into a minimum, just like we may be heading into a war. But the minimum won't be "a Maunder minimum" because that was a few hundred years ago. And any war we get into won't be "a War of 1812" because, well, it's not 1812.

[justa-hairyape]

The magnetic poles on the Sun are getting ready to swap ends.

After reading the linked thread comments, it appears that the magnetic polarity of the sun flips every cycle during the Solar Maximum. So you are stating that some other magnetic polarity change is happening ?

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

Bookmarking. Thanks for posting that chart!

[justa-hairyape]

Wow. Look at Britain from space.
Snow covers Britain from head to toe

[UCANSEE2]

The Earth’s magnetic polarity is moving. It has been doing so for a long time, but it has moved quite far recently.

The Sun’s polarity swap may, or may not have an effect on Earth’s magnetic field. We will see.

I know that many sea creatures are going off course and beaching themselves. I think that is because the magnetic field has moved quite a bit. Throws off their navigation. These creatures will adapt, eventually.

[UCANSEE2]

We can have record lows, and record highs, even at the same time, and the AGT (average global temp) won’t change one bit.

Instead of claims it will get hotter, or it will get colder, the real difference in our environment is that the seasons have dramatic differences, or they have minimal differences.

That is what we ‘perceive’ the most, and yet it produces very little change in the AGT.

[UCANSEE2]

But what exactly happens to the sun during a pole reversal ? Does geomagnetic activity crash during the changeover ? Will sunspots be no longer visible for decades during the switch ?

Wish I knew. That's why I said it would be interesting. I don't think any one is exactly sure what will happen, or if anything will happen.

[UCANSEE2]

Well, when one is trying to sell Global Warming in an article about the Sun, facts are not important.

Keywords are the ticket.

[justa-hairyape]

I am beginning to wonder if the Global average temperature really means much. In our current situation a large High pressure system developed over Greenland which also led to a High Pressure forming over western US. These high pressures created blocking factors that have caused arctic air to move down into the Far East, Western Europe and the Central and Eastern US. So those temps dropped, but the areas of high pressure have caused temps under the high to rise. Greenland is warm. The north pole arctic area has warmed because the mass of cold air moved southward. So basically you could get close to a normal Global average with the UK, Far East and 2/3 of the US buried in snow and freezing in cold. What use is the average under these conditions ? Basically what could theoretically happen is as we are going into a new Ice Age, Global average temps might look normal. Until of course it is too late.

[American Constitutionalist]

Perhaps ? our sun is ready to trow out a big wallop out into the solar system, kinda like a tsunami, I just hope North America is on the dark side of the Earth when it happens, something is going to happen that we have never seen in recorded history......