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Well, the incumbent in 1978, when Tsongas won the Senate, was Brooke, a Republican. I’m not sure where Carter’s popularity was in November 1978, but the Iran hostage crisis hadn’t started and the gas crisis was 1979, gold hadn’t hit $850, stagflation hadn’t hit full force, etc. So, I’d say Carter’s popularity was probably not as low in 78 as it was in 79 or 80, but that’s just a guess.

Kennedy is a special case. Coakley isn’t Kennedy.

1996 might be instructive. Kerry beat Weld 52-44. That’s not a blowout. And in 1996 Clinton beat Dole in MA 61-28-9(Perot). That is a blowout. But Weld was a well known, popular governor. But Kerry was a 2 term incumbent. Brown is a near unknown (apparently). Coakley has a higher profile than Brown, but lower than Kerry. Brown has a lower profile than Weld. Kerry did far far worse than Clinton did in 1996.

I don’t know what Obama’s favorability rating is in Massachusetts. But Clinton beat Dole by 33 points. Is Obama at 66% favorability in MA right now? I would guess no. How about 62% favorability in MA right now? I would guess no.
I would guess 50 something.

The victory margin Clinton over Dole in 96 was 33 Kerry over Weld was 8. Clinton outperformed Kerry by 25% Can Brown do as well as Weld, in comparison to the incumbent Democrat President? If Obama is below 62%, and Brown does as well as Weld, Brown wins. I’m guessing Obama is below 62%. So, if Brown does as well as Weld, Brown would win.

Based on all that, Brown could win.