Posted on 10/29/2009 2:23:59 PM PDT by Ravi
see above
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
Probably a late nite.
I say McDonnell will win by a landslide (Deeds has basically thrown in the towel anyway) and on the other two races, from your keyboard to God’s ears.
thought McDonnell was up by 18, Christie by 5.
C’mom Christie- get the fat vote.
the current parties have a lot to lose and they will do anything including work together to beat the conservatives. So be it.
“I will go out on a limb and say we win all 3.”
Agreed.
Hoffman is still a long shot folks...
31 to 27 to 20, with 22% UNDECIDED. Just because he’s up 4 among those decided doesn’t mean he’s anywhere near a sure thing.
The only thing the Hoffman race shows is the RNC picked a weak horse to run. To read more into it than that is foolhearty. I hope he pulls it out, but I for one will not be suprised if the D wins this race. You just aren’t likely to get 60%+ to vote Conservative/Republican in NY 23, and that’s the minimal combined numbers that he and the R candidate will be needed for Hoffman to win.
McDonnell Definately has VA won, as do R’s down the ticket.
NJ, I dunno, corruption there can generate 1-2% democratic votes out of thin air in a moments notice.
I’d like to see all 3 go our way, but I am not willing to say that they will.
If it was a fair election Christie would win, but with all those buses coming in from Philly and NY we will need more that +1 to win the governorship.
If Republicans and conservatives turn out in huge numbers we will win all three. Otherwise, we lose one or two and allow Obama to declare victory.
The best thing to hope for is VERY inclement weather in both NJ and upstate NY.
http://www.bobmcdonnell.com/ for Governor
http://www.billbolling.com/ for Lieutenant Governor
http://www.cuccinelli.com/ for Attorney General
It’s get out the vote time.
If Algore shows up to support his candidates then we can almost be guaranteed a Northeaster.
Time will tell, but I just don’t see with 22% undecided, a 4 point lead holding. Hoffman already has the conservative vote locked, up and the D has the socialist dem block locked up.. the 22% undecided are the “moderate” voters, Ans likelihood is that the D will get more of then than Hoffman will. The D needs to get about 20% of them to regain the 4 points hes back he’ll certainly get that much of them. The question is what will happen to the remaining 80%?? If Hoffman gets anything less than even money vs those that break for the D in that 80%, the D wins.
Given those that have right leanings will have 2 choices, while those with leftward leanings only have 1, Hoffman’s looking at a tough nut to crack to pull it off.
He may, but I certainly don’t think that one is a sure bet by any stretch.
NJ, love to see it happen, but basically that one is dead heat, and we all know NJ can fabricate votes out of thin air to save a D, so even being up by a point or two in the polls for an R doesn’t mean a win.
Time will tell and I hope the Dems take loses across the board, but the important thing is as Goes VA, so Go the Blue Dogs! You paying attention Blue Dogs? You are DOA in ‘10 you keep being Fauxbama and Pelosi and Reid’s lap dogs.
This looks as good as it gets for GOPers in brain dead New Jersey. If the Daily Kos couldn’t push Corzine over the line McDonnell is + 10 and Hoffman is -1 I can’t wait for Tuesday night!
on the NJ race, Democracy Corps (D-RAT) had a 10% oversample of RATS and Corzine up by +5. That is not a good sign for Corzine.
It is interesting to note the attitude that “oh well, we all know they cheat and that is how it is and nothing can be done about it.” There seems to be more and more resignation and recognition of this. Are we not smart enough to figure out how they do it and do it back, only enough to erase the portion that is cheating? Why even waste money fielding a candidate in places where we have accepted the inevitable outcome due to cheating? We need to go a little more Braveheart about this rampant cheating.
Undecideds usually break for the challenger. Hoffman’s seen as the challenger in this race.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
This is my father's district and Hoffman has been able to do a tremendous amount of TV and radio advertising through his own campaign and from third parties. Even the NRCC has been running generic attack ads on Owens that never mention Scozzafava, essentially providing more advertising for Hoffman.
Even better, the Kos kids have been running pro Scozzafava ads that tout her support of gay marriage, card check and Obama's stimulus plan. I may be wrong, but I not only think Hoffman wins, but it won't be as close as expected.
everything indicates our side is far more motivated. the obama voters are still waiting on their checks so they may not be out in force.
Check this out: Recent Election Results
1998: 80.8% Republican
2000: 81.4% Republican + Conservative
2002: Unopposed
2004: 70.7% Republican
2006: 63.1% Republican
2008: 65.3% Republican
I think the 2000 election is an important comparison...this was before John McHugh was the incumbant, and it was a scenario similar to what we have today: Republican vs. Conservative vs. Democrat. The Republican ultimately won that, but I strongly doubt people were as fired up about David Vickers as they are about Hoffman today.
Also, that was a presidntial election year in which turnout was considerably higher. The relatively low turnout for this special election may play well to our side.
Can any New Yorkers weigh in on this? I'm very interested to hear what you folks have to say about it.
i agree with you that essentially,dede and owens will be splitting the same vote leaving the victors share for Hoffman
Corzine is hated by the vast majority of voters in NJ, just like Flim Flam Florio was in 1993. He is particulary despised by Indies, who also happen to be the biggest block voters in NJ. Christie leads with Indies by double digits, and Daggett is fading and won’t receive more than 7% of the vote. Christie is also lawyered up and ready to fight dirty. Chris wins, but it will be close, just like 1993.
DAILY KOS asserts that CHRISTIE will WIN???
hugh, series, blah blah blah.
Democracy Corps had Corzine leading by 3 on 10/8/09, by 3 on 10/22/09 and now by 5. But, if you take a look at their most recent poll you’ll notice they don’t post a Margin Of Error anywhere. I called their DC office and asked them why. They put me through the gauntlet, they wanted to know who I was, who did I work for, what organization was I with. I told them I am just and average Joe who saw their poll on RCP and wanted to know why they didn’t post an MOE. I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.
Those aren’t from the Kos kids. Those ads are a brilliant move by the Club For Growth.
Corzine wins in the 2nd recount.
Nice tactic. You got the usual run-around fire drill when they knew they got caught.
I have to think that going strictly by the numbers Christie will win. Rasmussen has Christie at 49-49 fav/unfav while Corzine is at a whopping 41-57 rating. It’s just really, really difficult to win with those numbers even though the race is technically tight. Of course I realize that NJ is historically a teaser/joke state so anything is possible. I say Christie wins by 3-4%.
With Hoffman I tend to agree with your analysis. The dynamics are harder to judge because while both races have three parties this one has the bigger breakup with the last place candidate (Scozzafava) polling in at around 20%. It’s hard to judge because the two polls showing Hoffman up 4-5% don’t even tap 400 LVs, while the Kos/R2000 poll taps 600 LVs and shows a dead heat. I think Hoffman probably has a very marginal lead but that the large amount of undecideds are probably Scozzafava holdouts and independents. Hoffman has done such a remarkable job it’s hard to imagine that those still holding out might have yet to settle on him rather than, say, disaffected Scozzafava voters who will more than likely either vote for her, stay home, or even vote for Owens out of spite.
So basically I wouldn’t place bets on that one although he may squeeze by with a point or two. Hard to say.
We definitely clobber in Virginia though.
“I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.”
Smart man!
Challenger? Its a special election for an OPEN SEAT... applying “challenger” to an open seat race is a false premise.
Notice that trend? Its overall DOWNWARD. We’ll see what happens. I hope he pulls it out, but with 22% undecided, thinking a 4 point lead is safe is wishful thinking in my book.
I realize it’s an overall DOWNWARD trend. But there are other factors at play, like how much attention this particular race is receiving vs. years past.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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