Posted on 10/14/2009 9:13:28 AM PDT by freespirited
Republican Robert F. McDonnell still holds a seven-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for Virginia governor.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McDonnell ahead of Deeds 50% to 43%. Six percent (6%) of Virginia voters remain undecided. The survey was taken Monday night as the two candidates clashed in their next-to-last debate of the contest.
McDonnells lead is roughly the same as two weeks ago when he was ahead of Deeds 51% to 42%. After closing to essentially a toss-up in mid-September, the previous survey found the contest back to where it was in early September, when the GOP hopeful held a nine-point advantage. In August, McDonnell was up by eight.
All of those figures include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Premium Members can review the data without leaners and complete demographic crosstabs.
But McDonnell holds a seven-point lead whether leaners are included or not.
A poll in The Washington Post last week showed McDonnell ahead by nine points.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
McDonnell, a former state attorney general, leads Deeds, a state senator, by 15 points among men but runs even among women voters. Both candidates are heavily supported by voters in their own parties, but the GOP candidate has a two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either party.
McDonnell was on the defensive early last month after news stories detailed the conservative social views in a college thesis paper he wrote in 1989. The disclosure of those views seemed to hurt him in polls at that time, but he rebounded after Deeds stumbled over a debate question, opening the door to charges that he intended to raise taxes to cover the states transportation needs. McDonnells campaign has been pounding on the tax issue since late September.
Concern about the thesis has risen again, however. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now say it is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote. Thats up five points from the two previous surveys on the race.
Voters continue to trust McDonnell more on taxes by a 52% to 35% margin. But that is little changed from earlier surveys. He also leads Deeds 52% to 27% when it comes to whom voters trust more to cut government spending.
The Republican also is trusted more to confront the states transportation problems, but the gap between the candidates has narrowed to six points 43% to 37%. Two weeks ago, voters trusted McDonnell more than Deeds on the issue of transportation by 13 points 45% to 32%. Previous surveys had found voters evenly divided on the topic.
McDonnell also has been trying to link Deeds fortunes to those of President Obama. Deeds last month seemed to distance himself somewhat from the president but now says he hopes Obama will come to the state to campaign for him.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of Virginia voters say Obamas performance is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote, with 36% who say it is very important.
The bad news for Deeds is that just 23% say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat if Obama campaigns for him in Virginia. Forty-three percent (43%) say it would make them less likely to vote for Deeds, while 32% say it would have no impact on their vote.
Fifty-three percent (53%) now approve of Obamas performance as president, with 37% who strongly approve. This marks no change from the previous survey.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters in the state have a favorable view of McDonnell, up six points from two weeks ago. Virtually unchanged are the 47% who view Deeds favorably.
Voters feel more strongly about McDonnell, with 32% holding a very favorable opinion and 16% with a very unfavorable one. Both findings are up three points from the previous survey. Again, there is virtually no change in Deeds numbers over the past two weeks: 20% view him very favorably, while 22% see him very unfavorably.
Fifty-four percent (54%) approve of the job the current Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, is doing. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove.
In this years other big election contest, Republican challenger Chris Christie is in a virtual toss-up with incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in the New Jerseys governors race.
Virginia poll ping.
A nice little referendum on Obama right out his window. Sweet.
Please NJ get it done. Yes, we know about Chrisite but Corzine has to go.
If the polls are accurate three weeks out, he has a great chance at winning by 6 or 8 points. 50% with leaners is a good place to be sitting with 7% undecided.
Hope Jersey decides to show Corzine the door as well.
Get ready for a barrage of stories about how this is just a local state election with little national significance and does not reflect in any way on Obama or his policies.
Christie isn’t much better, brother.
Lonegan was the better man. Unfortunately, the Jersey GOP went with Dem-Lite again.
But from the purely “symbolic” viewpoint, yes, you’re correct.
It disturbs me to learn that 43% of the Commonwealth actually support Deeds.
My guess is that most of those people support him simply because he’s not a Republican, not because of his views.
Figure 35%-40% of all voters nationwide are moonbats.
Nobel/Rat support won’t fall below that, IMO.
Too many people vote for a living or suck on the government teet, regardless of the level (local, state, federal).
Lonegan was a better choice but Christie is the only one.
With Corzine’s ongoing damage, symbolic is the wrong analogy.
In Hoboken a State monitor answering to the Gov. is in charge. Union negotiations are underway with police and fire. The budget has been blown out last year and no final tally yet this year half way in.
Who’s interest do you think Corzine will be pushing?
I rest my case.
Blogger, Not Larry Sabato, is predicting a GOP gain of 1 seat to 11 seats in the Va House of Delagates.
After Obama’s win last year, the media touted the end of the culture wars. Yet Deeds’s entire campaign is about the culture wars. He is obessed with Pat Roberston.
Understood. Wish you luck, though.
Especially when it comes to gun rights.
You're right, of course, but we know the truth. A win by McDonnell, especially if the margin of victory is large, will scare "centrist" Democrats and RINOs like nothing else will. Nothing inspires an incumbent politician like the real threat of defeat.
This election will be a referendum on Obama.
Everything NLS writes should be taken with multiple grains of salt. And you need to know his currently employer.
He’s good when he wants to be. He can also be bought for a cheap dinner and a watered down drink.
http://www.bobmcdonnell.com/ for Governor
http://www.billbolling.com/ for Lieutenant Governor
http://www.cuccinelli.com/ for Attorney General
Really, I thought he was running AGAINST Pat Robertson.........
“Figure 35%-40% of all voters nationwide are moonbats.”
So, are those numbers from the latest Rasmussen poll also?
;-)
Maybe he has a man-crush.
I mean, the heart wants what the heart wants, right?
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