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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
China's current industrial structure reached its limit. The global demand for their product markedly dropped. They have to continue the appearance of high growth for political reason. They have been pushing products with little or negative margin. They have to produce output even if doing so make their balance sheet actually suffer.

If they do not keep it up, they face massive uprisings. Not necessarily led by one group. Several will spring up in China. Peasant uprising have long tradition in history. It is usually massive and quite destructive. The current communist regime was one of them which succeeded in taking power.

The regime truly fears that any relenting of economic drive would lead to collapse of communist rule in China, followed by a civil war. So they have as much motivation or more to dump money into economy as D.C. and Wall St. do in U.S.. Their necks are literally on the line.

The question for Chinese regime is how long they can throw stimulus money, hoping for the best, and when they turn their totalitarian apparatus into action, if it fails.

For now, I suspect that they are wishing that somehow global economic climate would improve without U.S. recovery, and they can dodge a bullet. What else could they do? The alternative is just too unpleasant to them.

11 posted on 09/11/2009 5:43:34 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

You’re in that region, correct?

My fear is that, given the current global economic (and coming food) situation, political leaders will do what they frequently have done when pushed up against the wall: they go to war. This rallies the people of a nation into a unified patriotism and sets aside other concerns for the predominant concern of immediate survival.

What do you think the likelihood of China taking this route for these reasons?


12 posted on 09/11/2009 5:48:23 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Impeach President Bernanke.)
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