Odds are that this venture will not end well.
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I will be more certain in my prediction....It is guaranteed that this venture will not end well.
Nobody has ever conquered and held the Afghans, not since Ghenghis Khan.
The Brits at the peak of their imperial strength couldn't.
The Russians couldn't, and they deployed five times the number of troops that we have there, plus armored divisions. Plus they had direct land access for re-inforcement and supply. Plus they were fighting a dis-organized, un-trained force that was armed with WW2 vintage weapons (until we gave them stingers). Plus the USSR did not have to deal with any public dissent....and they got their ass handed to them.
We fighting a different enemy now, one that has been at war for twenty years, one that is trained and armed, one that has known nothing but symmetrical warfare.
We do not have the luxury of a land route access. We rely upon the acquiescence of FSSRs to move men and materiel in (at a less than optimum rate). These FSSRs are eternally pressured by Putin & Co. to desist their support of our efforts.
Our ROE are designed to lose.
We lack the manpower to insert in sufficient numbers even if we did decide to win.
Pakistan, for which we have no clear FP direction, is now a dominant factor.
I could go on but the point is.....we will not "win" this. We will just waste good American lives and fortune on our way to global embarrassment at the hands of third world shit kickers.