You left out a point, which is that seasonal flu generally kills elderly folks who are soon to die anyway. This flu kills people in their prime.
I also keep coming up with figures between 200,000 and 500,000 in a no-vaccine scenario (see post 54). I don't think that will happen, simply because whatever some on this board may do, 100 million people or more in this country are going to get the vaccine.
From what I was reading about it a while ago, the mechanism is that it causes the immune system to over-react to the infection. So people with healthy, vigorous immune systems are vulnerable.
It turns out that age and immune-system strength may not be a factor with this virus. That’s because, just like the SARS and avian flu outbreaks, it's believed the problem is not so much the virus itself but how your body responds to it.In past flu pandemics, young and healthy adults who were more likely to be affected than the very young or elderly. This is because their bodies showed an overreaction of their immune response, with respiratory-system inflammation that was ultimately deadly. A stronger immune system fighting those infections meant an overly strong response and greater odds of fatality.
But not to add to the hype, keep in mind that the cases reported so far in the United States have been mild. For those deaths in Mexico, it’s uncertain why young and healthy people are dying. One theory is the virus has already mutated into a stronger version; public health officials are investigating. It's also important to note that antiviral medications such as Tamiflu are showing to be effective in treating this swine flu; there were no such medications in the 1918 pandemic.