* More people died from the vaccination than from swine flu.
* 500 cases of GBS* were detected.
Different year, very different situation.
In 1976, there was only ONE death from swine flu, and 25 deaths from the vaccine. 18% of the population were vaccinated.
That means if 2/3rd of the population had been vaccinated, we might've expected 90 deaths, and 1800 resulting cases of GBS detected.
Adjusted for today's population, that would be around 125 deaths and 2500 cases of GBS detected.
So far, this influenza has infected a very small percentage of our population but has killed more than 500 Americans, making it HUGELY more deadly than the 1976 bug.
I would estimate around 100,000 infections so far in the USA, and that around 1/3 of the population would be affected without a vaccine.
So we can draw up two potential scenarios:
1) Two thirds of the country gets vaccinated, epidemic is stopped:
Result: 125 people die of the vaccine, and 2500 get GBS.
2) Nobody gets vaccinated. 500,000 men, women and children die of influenza.
Hmm. So far, actually, the odds appear to me to be HEAVILY skewed in favor of it being a smart idea to take the vaccine.
Like I say, I haven't totally made my own decision yet (I do appreciate risks of vaccines). And a fear of the vaccine is not entirely unreasonable. CFR on this bug is around 0.5% and we do, after all, have to take the word of the "authorities" that it's been adequately tested and is not going to harm us.
But I suspect that in the end it's going to be pretty hard for me to ignore the basic math.
And while all this may be true, what you fail to mention is the recommendation of the CDC for a course of 2 vaccinations this flu season... the seasonal flu as one visit and the H1N1 as two separate injections given three weeks apart. I don’t see a dedicated follow-up after the first.
I personally don’t trust mass vaccination in public schools, either. I will not consent to have my children inocculated this way.
And to those who have asked about swine flu associated deaths... yes. They were young and healthy before on ventilators, then gone.
I don’t doubt H1N1 is a threat, but I do doubt a gov’t preferred pharm. co’s ability to develop a safe and effective vaccine in <6 mos from outbreak to administration.