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Novel H1N1 Mortality Rate Approaches 1%
Pathophilia ^ | Aug 19 2009 | Barbara J. Martin, MD

Posted on 08/24/2009 11:41:07 AM PDT by Brugmansian

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To: dmz

“Does that really sound like the normal flu to you?”

Do you know of anyone who has died of this? Do you even know anyone who’s gotten this flu?

The government tells me 47 million people are without health insurance. Do you believe that number?

The government tells me that passing the healthcare package will reduce government expenditures. Do you believe that?

I go by what I see.


21 posted on 08/24/2009 12:17:05 PM PDT by brownsfan (The public schools and the SRM, they are killing us.)
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To: brownsfan
Can someone explain why the government is trying to induce panic over this flu strain? Yes, it’s the flu. Yes, it’s not something anyone wants. Yes, it will kill you if you’re very young or very weak. It all sounds like normal flu to me, what’s the big friggin’ deal?

Two items that differ between H1N1 and the usual seasonal flu - the mortality rate is higher, and H1N1 is killing healthy young adults, not only the very young, very old, and those with other serious health problems. That's why medical organizations such as WHO and the CDC are so concerned.

22 posted on 08/24/2009 12:17:46 PM PDT by sometime lurker
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To: Brugmansian

Our healthcare system may be somewhat inadequate, but we are going to have more doses of flu vaccine than we have people. We’re going to have 50.4 million doses and we’ve only got 33 million people. Apparently, we set up a deal with Glaxo-Smith-Kline in 2001 that insured we would be provided with more than enough shots if a pandemic ever occurred. It probably cost us a bundle, but apparently it’s now paying off.


23 posted on 08/24/2009 12:18:19 PM PDT by jerod (They were pro-abortion, for gun control & wanted a cleaner environment at all cost - The NAZI party)
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To: brownsfan

Do you know of anyone who has died of this? Do you even know anyone who’s gotten this flu?
____

No.
Yes.


24 posted on 08/24/2009 12:18:58 PM PDT by dmz
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To: brownsfan

I can’t comment. I died in the great west nile virus pandemic a few years back.


25 posted on 08/24/2009 12:21:50 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Onerom99

The deathrate is rising with the use of the vaccine.
_____

Are all of your opinions so studiously researched? Tell me about this H1N1 vaccine that is killing people.

I know clinical trials are ongoing, but the CDC suggests that by late September the vaccination may be available, but likely in October.

What vaccine are you talking about?


26 posted on 08/24/2009 12:26:06 PM PDT by dmz
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To: the invisib1e hand; brownsfan
This represents an increase in the mortality curve of about 0.16% over 15 days (.82% to .98%)

That's a 0.01% increase in lethality every 24 hours.

At the current linear rate of increase, mutated H1N1 strains' mortality rate (currently 1%) will be 2% within 12 weeks.

If the rate of increase is in fact non-linear, and the rate of change is viewed as a raw percentage of the mortality rate *increase*, we see the difference between .82% and .98% as an increase of approximately 20% over 15 days. If this rate is maintained, H1N1 mutates to a 2% mortality rate, 2 out of 100 people dying from it anywhere on the planet, by Oct 7, 2009. After that, it goes to 4% by Oct. 21, 2009, 8% by Nov. 5, 2009, and 15% by November 20.

Basically unbounded vectoring all around the planet and this mutation rate mean 1.25 billion people die of the "flu" before Christmas 2010.

Hopefully you didn't have your "gas mask and vitamin D3" money in Guaranty Financial Group, which went belly up August 22, 2009 (New Zealand time).

Next date to watch: October 7, 2009

27 posted on 08/24/2009 12:26:24 PM PDT by John Titor
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To: cripplecreek

“I can’t comment. I died in the great west nile virus pandemic a few years back.”

Funny.

The bird flu got me.


28 posted on 08/24/2009 12:28:19 PM PDT by brownsfan (The public schools and the SRM, they are killing us.)
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To: John Titor

“Basically unbounded vectoring all around the planet and this mutation rate mean 1.25 billion people die of the “flu” before Christmas 2010.”

And the upper limit is 100%. Therefore, we are all going to die from this.


29 posted on 08/24/2009 12:30:48 PM PDT by brownsfan (The public schools and the SRM, they are killing us.)
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To: randomhero97
“Possibly. However, there is way too much to go wrong in this scenario. Remember, the “puppeteers” are making money with this administration. What benefit for them would it be for the economy to come to a halt?”

“too much could go wrong” If they have the cure & control it they could take out their enemies or anyone they deem inconvenient. (If obama think its ok to kill babies after a botched abortion and his ideologues think its ok to kill those who “are not aware” and those who are too expensive to care for.)

“puppeteers” making money” I think he passed much of it out already and look at the people who are leftist who got it. We are 10 trillion in debt.

“What benefit for them would it be for the economy”

I think they want to destroy the economy. I know how that sounds, but if they can't take over like hitler did (we only have 25% who think obama is god)
Then they must control us another way.

How many times have we heard the leftist say we have 6 billion people in this world & there should only be 1 billion. Have you seen there TV show series, “What the world would be without people” These people have no conscience. They have power and a leftist vision and will do whatever they need to get there.

30 posted on 08/24/2009 12:32:46 PM PDT by Linda Frances
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To: Brugmansian

No, the death rate should be much higher. I have yet to read an article that doesn’t say the patient had H1N1, *BUT* he died from other complications.


31 posted on 08/24/2009 12:34:21 PM PDT by bgill (The evidence simply does not support the official position of the Obama administration)
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To: Marie

I’m sure it’s way under 1%, far less than half that. We had H1N1 in our area, and the hospitals and doctors and health departments were telling people “just stay home” unless something is really wrong like difficulty breathing, profound weakness, etc. So the people getting tested are the panickers and the dangerously sick but only a small minority of those who actually had the flu got tested.

Our town of 20,000 - I guess between 5 and 20% got sick. No one died.


32 posted on 08/24/2009 12:36:15 PM PDT by heartwood
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To: GraceG
"I have been sick off and on since the middle of spring."

I've been nauseous since early November.

33 posted on 08/24/2009 12:38:33 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: brownsfan
Do you even know anyone who’s gotten this flu?

Just last week, there were several confirmed cases and others with symptoms in two local schools. Classes have just started so I do indeed expect an increase in cases.

34 posted on 08/24/2009 12:42:59 PM PDT by bgill (The evidence simply does not support the official position of the Obama administration)
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To: jerod

Yesterday, Dr. Whatshisface older round face guy that does Fox News was saying if H1N1 mutates, then the current vacines will be worthless.


35 posted on 08/24/2009 12:45:20 PM PDT by bgill (The evidence simply does not support the official position of the Obama administration)
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To: dmz

Yes, I do know 3 who were diagnosed just last week.


36 posted on 08/24/2009 12:46:34 PM PDT by bgill (The evidence simply does not support the official position of the Obama administration)
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To: heartwood

The local news warned students to wash hands and don’t share food and stay home if you’re sick because there have been confirmed cases. At the end of the segment, they then told kids to become “flu buddies” and take soup to their sick friends.... sigh....


37 posted on 08/24/2009 12:50:49 PM PDT by bgill (The evidence simply does not support the official position of the Obama administration)
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To: bgill

“then the current vacines will be worthless.”

The *normal* failure rate for a relatively good vaccine is about 30%.

If it’s like the one they pushed on people in the ‘70s, it might kill-sicken more people then the flu itself.


38 posted on 08/24/2009 12:51:39 PM PDT by wolfcreek (KMTEXASA!)
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To: Brugmansian
In my lifetime I've seen the media flip out over the first Swine Flu, AIDS (yes, it's real and serious, but back in ‘88 they had us thinking that half the population would be dead or dying by now), the Bird Flu, Ebola, Legionnaire's Disease, Anthrax, Marburg, Hanta, CJD, Lyme Disease (my daughter actually did get that one), antibiotic resistant staph, strep and ecoli scares, West Nile Virus, SARS, the Fujian flu and many more...

... and now this. Every one of these diseases hit the headlines BIG sometime in the last 35 years. Every one of them scared a good part of the population silly. None of them ended up being the Great Killer we all feared. I'm sorry, but I'm too old to let my heart go “pitter-pat” every time people get ramped up over “THE *NEXT* GREAT PANDEMIC”...

The fact is that it's too soon to tell how bad this will be. It's not a horrible killer like some of the other baddies out there that have 30-90% mortality. The odds are that it will mutate to a *less* virulent strain (as most viruses do - the 1918 flu was the exception, not the norm).

We just need to take care of ourselves, wash our hands and stay out of populated places when we are sick.

My husband has a co-worker who's wife had confirmed Swine Flu. She had a bad week, then went back to work. Her husband didn't get sick and neither did her co-workers. So much for it being the most highly contagious bug out there.

Could this become much worse? Sure. Anything can happen, but the odds are in our favor. Will people die? Yup. But people die all the time. Will this become the next plague and wipe out 1/3rd of the population? No. It will not.

There are many more pressing and serious things to be worried about than the flu. (And I'm speaking as a parent of two kids who're missing part of their immune systems and who are highly vulnerable to this kind of thing.) If it gets worse, we'll deal with it. If people are really worried they can buy a course of Tamiflu off the Internet to keep handy.

Check out one of my favorite websites.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/oracle/9941/

I go there every time I get stressed about all the doom and gloom. :-)

39 posted on 08/24/2009 12:51:55 PM PDT by Marie (I *am* the mob!)
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To: brownsfan

My husband’s co-worker’s wife had confirmed Swine Flu about 6 weeks back. She had a bad week, then went back to work.


40 posted on 08/24/2009 12:53:59 PM PDT by Marie (I *am* the mob!)
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