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Novel H1N1 Mortality Rate Approaches 1%
Pathophilia ^ | Aug 19 2009 | Barbara J. Martin, MD

Posted on 08/24/2009 11:41:07 AM PDT by Brugmansian

As of today, the World Health Organization reports 1799 deaths due to the novel H1N1 swine-flu virus among a global total of more than 182,166 cases. By using these numbers, the overall mortality rate is 0.98% (although the actual rate is somewhat lower). The death rate as of August 6th was 0.82%. Again most of the deaths (~87%) have occurred in the Americas



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: flu; mexicanflu
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The mortality rate for normal seasonal flu is 0.1% or less.This is shaping up to be the worst flu season in half a century and America will be rationing vaccine. Remember when there was a brief and inconsequential shortage of flu vaccine under Bush? Remember what the media said then?
1 posted on 08/24/2009 11:41:07 AM PDT by Brugmansian
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To: Brugmansian

death by hiney? OK.


2 posted on 08/24/2009 11:43:52 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (this slope is getting slippereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...)
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To: Brugmansian
Remember what the media said then?

Probably they'll hail obama for keeping medical costs down through mortality.

3 posted on 08/24/2009 11:45:05 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (this slope is getting slippereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...)
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To: Brugmansian

Can someone explain why the government is trying to induce panic over this flu strain?

Yes, it’s the flu. Yes, it’s not something anyone wants. Yes, it will kill you if you’re very young or very weak.

It all sounds like normal flu to me, what’s the big friggin’ deal?


4 posted on 08/24/2009 11:45:42 AM PDT by brownsfan (The public schools and the SRM, they are killing us.)
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To: brownsfan
Funding by panic. Scaremongering is the runaway mania growth industry of the 21st century, on every front. Why anyone puts up with it is the mystery. Right up there with who replies to spam. It is moral pollution...
5 posted on 08/24/2009 11:49:31 AM PDT by JasonC
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To: the invisib1e hand

My daughter calls it the Hiney Swiney.


6 posted on 08/24/2009 11:49:32 AM PDT by murron (Proud Marine Mom)
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To: Brugmansian

The reality is that we don’t know how many people have actually been sick from this flu. From what I understand, most people just stay home for a week or two and never go to the doctor for a difinitive diagnosis. The actually mortality could easily be half that reported. None of the people who’ve died in the US were pictures of health to begin with.

Sorry, I just can’t get freaked out about this bug. I’m honestly a little more concerned about the vaccine.


7 posted on 08/24/2009 11:49:44 AM PDT by Marie (I *am* the mob!)
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To: the invisib1e hand

My daughter calls it the Hiney Swiney.


8 posted on 08/24/2009 11:50:06 AM PDT by murron (Proud Marine Mom)
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To: Brugmansian

What a freaking joke.


9 posted on 08/24/2009 11:50:07 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Brugmansian

There is a disclaimer at the link: “Given that countries are no longer required to test and report individual cases, the number of cases reported actually understates the real number of cases.”

Is it likely that the number of confirmed cases will not grow because testing has been suspended, but after a death there might be a test made, which would skew the percentage higher, by an unknown amount?

My daughter was very sick about a month ago, typical flu symptoms, plus shortness of breath. The hospital tested for bacteria, but did not do a specific flu test. During her follow up with her regular Dr. the following week, the doctor said, “you may well have had H1N1.”


10 posted on 08/24/2009 11:50:42 AM PDT by garyb
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To: Brugmansian

Wow, that puts the death rate above violence and below measles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate


11 posted on 08/24/2009 11:51:42 AM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: brownsfan
Can someone explain why the government is trying to induce panic over this flu strain?

I see the exact opposite. HHS and Obama are downplaying the stats. Why isn't the death rate approaching 1% headline news? Why must I find the OP in a doctor's blog?

The reason is, I believe, because they botched the delivery of vaccine.

They are faced with a very serious problem, know they have been remiss (HSS for months said no problem with the vaccine) and now are hoping the general public will not notice what is about to hit it.

12 posted on 08/24/2009 11:53:27 AM PDT by Brugmansian
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To: garyb

I have been sick off and on since the middle of spring. I am not sure what I could have been sick with, went to the Doctor multiple times, they never tested me for Swine Flu.

They seemed to think I was crazy for even thinking I would have had swine flue. I am still feeling sick.


13 posted on 08/24/2009 11:53:46 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: Brugmansian
I'm going to say something that I think many people are thinking but not saying.

What concerns me is that someone on the left actually lets out a virus that is dangerous. They are marxist and believe the end justify the means. They love a crisis and if people don't buy this H1N1 scare tactic, they might create a real crisis.

14 posted on 08/24/2009 11:53:50 AM PDT by Linda Frances
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To: Marie
The reality is that we don’t know how many people have actually been sick from this flu.

Which is true of any flu.

But we do know confirmed cases and we do know the number who die from those confirmed cases. Those numbers are way, way above normal.

We also know some other stuff. The median age of death in Australia for normal seasonal flu is 83. For this flu it is 56. For those who get this flu and develop ARDS the death rate is 100 times that of normal flu (SEE: First estimation of direct H1N1pdm virulence)

15 posted on 08/24/2009 11:59:08 AM PDT by Brugmansian
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To: Linda Frances

Possibly. However, there is way too much to go wrong in this scenario. Remember, the “puppeteers” are making money with this administration. What benefit for them would it be for the economy to come to a halt?


16 posted on 08/24/2009 11:59:35 AM PDT by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: garyb
There is a disclaimer at the link: “Given that countries are no longer required to test and report individual cases, the number of cases reported actually understates the real number of cases.”

Is it likely that the number of confirmed cases will not grow because testing has been suspended, but after a death there might be a test made, which would skew the percentage higher, by an unknown amount?

They adjust for it. They model it. Nothing different with this flu and any other regarding that. Can't test everyone. The number of flu deaths per year in the USA (30,000+) is a model. Epidemiologists look at the normal ebb and flow in the mortality rate, see a surge during the flu season and figure that into the total death rate.

17 posted on 08/24/2009 12:04:59 PM PDT by Brugmansian
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To: brownsfan

It all sounds like normal flu to me, what’s the big friggin’ deal?
______

According to the poster of this thread, the mortality rate is close to 10 times that of the normal flu.

Does that really sound like the normal flu to you?


18 posted on 08/24/2009 12:12:15 PM PDT by dmz
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To: Brugmansian

The number of cases reported is guaranteed to be WAYYYYYYY below the real cases.


19 posted on 08/24/2009 12:14:12 PM PDT by Onerom99 (I)
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To: dmz

The deathrate is rising with the use of the vaccine.

This was a complete sham from the getgo.

Sad to see people like you swallowing this garbage.


20 posted on 08/24/2009 12:16:39 PM PDT by Onerom99 (I)
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