Downturn bottomed out, Trichet signals(we love second derivative)

FT ^ | 05/11/09 | Chris Giles, Daniel Pimlott and Ralph Atkins

[TigerLikesRooster]

Downturn bottomed out, Trichet signals

By Chris Giles and Daniel Pimlott in London and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: May 11 2009 14:35 | Last updated: May 11 2009 20:36

Jean-Claude Trichet signalled on Monday that the global downturn had bottomed out with some large economies already able to put the recession behind them and look forward to renewed growth.

OECD composite leading indicatorsThe European Central Bank president’s comments on Monday in Basel, Switzerland, had added weight because he was speaking on behalf of the world’s leading central bankers, not just for the eurozone.

His remarks came as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said there were signs of a “pause” in the economic slowdown in France, Italy, the UK and China.

[TigerLikesRooster]

For now,

a(n), and a(n) - a(n-1) are out.

a(n) - 2 * a(n-1) + a(n-2) is in.

[Deagle]

Heh...they wish! Sounds like another global confidence game going on here...

Only the stupid would re-invest in stocks at this stage or those with money to lose...

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Such a silly little man...

[TigerLikesRooster]

If somebody invest, they will take his money and call him a moron later for being suckered. It is no-win situation. He won’t get any kind words of consolation for propping their ego up by plunking his money into market, albeit for temporarily.

[Deagle]

Yep...it’s called taking the money from the uneducated (or poor) by the wall street crooks (Only taking advantage of the gullible)... ha...

[SAJ]

Gee, looks like the bloody Frog (who was smack in the middle of the LTCM debacle in 1998, for those who don't happen to know...) has forgotten the first rule, or never knew it, namely, that derivatives only apply IN BROAD to a continuous time series of data.

Calling the performance of **any** economy a continuous time series is more than a bit like attempting to take the derivative of politicians' lies over time.

Plain English? Pure BS.

[rgboomers]

a(n), and a(n) - a(n-1) are out.

a(n) - 2 * a(n-1) + a(n-2) is in.

Assumin a(n) is most recent price, a(n-1) the price yesterday, and a(n-2) is price the day before yesterday, what is the logic or purpose of the equation? Is it a different way to represent price change? An overbought / oversold indicator? I admit to being confused. What is it’s purpose? Thanks.

[TigerLikesRooster]

a(n) - 2 * a(n-1) + a(n-2) = {a(n) - a(n-1)} - {a(n-1) - a(n-2)}

That is, change of change. Or difference of two adjoining differences. This is the rate of acceleration, i.e., the second derivative.

[freespirited]

I hope that translates to cash and short ETFs are in.

[grey_whiskers]

If the 1st derivative is zero, we are at a local max...or min.

My money is on local max.

Mzrkets look forward, and the inflation, regulation, and tax bite of the One have not really hit yet.

The large unemployment is the sound of all businesses dumping everyone except those absolutely essential: and moving the rest offshore as quickly as possible.

Cheers!

[rgboomers]

Thanks. With the more complete explanation, I see what you mean. I prefer to estimate 2d derivatives by doing a rolling quadratic regression and calculating the changing slope of the regression line. Try it over hundreds of intervals simutanously and graph it. That quickly becomes very interesting.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Yes, your estimation is more meaningful and accurate. Mine is just for simple definition purpose in discrete case data.

Experts going ga-ga with the result from such small data points is really hilarious.:-)

[rgboomers]

Experts going ga-ga certainly is amusing. Particularily when what they get paid is considered in combination with what they get away with in terms of bad analysis.

[TigerLikesRooster]

They are paid to ‘spin,’ that is, to mislead. Their credentials are only used to prop up the credibility of their lies.:-)