Basically the Mexicans are doing something wrong. This 'pandemic' is anything but.
Basically the Mexicans are doing something wrong. This 'pandemic' is anything but.
We do not know the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) in Mexico. CFR = number of swine flu deaths divided by the total number of cases. Note total number of cases, not total number of patients in the hospital. We do not even know how many of them died from the flu and not by pneumonia, it could be pneumonia as a secondary infection after they had the swine flu or it could be normal pneumonia. Greater Mexico City has a population of about 25 million, it must be many, many pneumonia cases every year.
Twelve nosocomial outbreaks over 14 years at a tertiary care center in Mexico are described. Overall mortality was 25.8%, one half due to pneumonia. The most common organism was Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Incidence was three outbreaks per 10,000 discharges; outbreaks related infections comprised 1.56% of all nosocomial infections. Incidence in the intensive care unit was 10 fold higher.
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/501800
US
More than 2 million cases of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) occur each year in the United States, resulting in approximately 10 million physician visits, more than 500,000 hospitalizations, and approximately 50,000 deaths. Over time the number of microorganisms identified as pathogens has increased, along with new broad-spectrum antibiotics available for treatment. At the same time, common pathogens have become increasingly resistant to frequently used antibiotics, complicating the management of CAP and prompting the development of management guidelines.
Epidemiology
The actual incidence of pneumonia in ambulatory patients is difficult to estimate because the etiologic agent is rarely identified except in clinical trials, and CAP is not currently considered a reportable disease. Each year in the United States there are 2 to 3 million cases of CAP. The incidence of hospitalization is estimated at 260 cases per 100,000 population but is about fourfold higher in those over age 65. CAP results in about 500,000 hospitalizations annually, with approximately 45,000 deaths; pneumonia is the sixth most common cause of death in the United States. Between 1979 and 1994, pneumonia and influenza–related death rates have increased because of the increasing number of patients over 65 and patients with underlying illnesses. Studies of patients with CAP report mortality rates of 5.1% to 36.5%, averaging about 14%. 4 An analysis of 1993 hospital discharge data from Washington, Illinois, and Florida revealed death rates of 7.0%, 8.1%, and 9.7%, respectively. Risk factors for mortality include age, alcoholism, bacteremia, and multilobar involvement on radiographs. Contributing factors include underlying malignancy, immunosuppression, neurologic disease, congestive heart failure, and diabetes. Aspiration, postobstructive, gram-negative, and Staphylococcus aureus forms of pneumonia are also associated with higher
mortality risk.
http://www.healthline.com/elseviercontent/textbook-pneumonia
200 cases in Mexico City is nothing
Mexico has many people who carry r1b genes. So too, the rest of the Americas, Western Europe, S. Africa, NZ, Australia. Now, look at an infection map. Death may yet come to places only recently infected. Mexico’s had this simmering under the surface for months.