I think you are somewhat correct, but the national market is not monolithic. There are hundreds of submarkets with local and demographic influences that vary state by state. In real estate terms, 2013 is not very far away, especially if a recovery happens a little sooner than you predict. The next question is the stability of the commercial market.
I find Arizona interesting. I doubt I will invest there, as I am sticking with mineral right plays for now, but it is interesting.
Is the front range buying partially due to families wanting to upgrade at these new lower prices or families wanting to lock in at these lower 30 year rates before inflation starts next year ?
Or something else ?
I think that the commercial real estate bubble will bust next year as their mortgages come due and as the economy dies along with businesses like Circuit City.
Do see it differently ?