Afghan Quicksand Awaits Obama

To ensure that we have influence over the outcome, we need more soldiers in Afghanistan, and fast. They need to be U.S. forces, British, Canadian, and Aussie; we cannot depend on NATO in general and they don’t know how to fight anyway. Unless President-elect Obama knows some kind of magic spell, he will not be able to persuade most NATO countries to do the right thing. Springtime 2009 will likely bring very heavy fighting in Afghanistan. We will not have credible negotiating positions while we remain outgunned by a bunch of old rifles and dinged-up RPGs.

While security in Iraq continues to improve, Afghanistan is drowning in a frothing quicksand. While most of the 2008 fighting season is over, we can be assured that the Afghan national sport — guerrilla warfare — will become the 2009 Taliban Olympics by April. They know this is a marathon.

Whatever else, Mr. President-elect, this is no time to go wobbly. It is important to note that some top British and U.S. commanders believe that we can make a “success” out of Afghanistan. We’ve learned a few things over the past seven years. We’ve truly got a “dream team” of military commanders with great in-theater experience to advise and guide the next phase. They saved Iraq. Use them well, Sir.

A liberal with essentially zero experience with the military scares the hell out of me. A running mate with a record of making the wrong decision every time is almost as scary.

He will either under-react and demonstrate a weakness that our enemies will quickly exploit.

-or-

He will over-react and de-stabilize a situation that was largely under control. Start the next world war.

Yon did not see the forest for the trees in the ground work setting up all the success in Iraq back in 05/06 (which routed / destroyed AQ) and thus created the vacuum for the "surge" to be so successful.

Most will never understand it wasn't "the surge" that created the atmosphere for Iraq to turn successful. It was the surge that helped defend that which was already won.

And it seems Yon is doing somewhat the same here - we can be assured that the Afghan national sport — guerrilla warfare — will become the 2009 Taliban Olympics by April.

Yawn. Taliban fighters and Olympics in the same sentence is much more hyperbole than serious thought......Our FID & COIN operations are only becoming more rooted within Stan and geographically we continue to push the Taliban further out (there is a reason they are now mostly based in Pak after all).

The Taliban hold no sway within the new Stan Gov't and very little (directly) within most of Stan's prov's. Of course there is trouble zones in the South as well as in the provs along side the Pak border (especially Nuristan, Konar, Khowst & Paktika. With the first two being the most troublesome). But that has has much to do with AQ elements as it does with the Taliban.

As for the need for more soldiers on the ground. Without question, this is a desire. But this has been a desire by HQs and the trigger pullers for a couple years now. No real surprise here and no reason to equate such a need with failure.

The need for such in differing AOs is not out of failures, but just a reality in this WOT. A reality that our current CinC has been clear about from day one, after Sept 11th, 2001. This was going to be a long war. One that will need to be able to apply constant pressure on the enemy.

My money is on an “exit strategy”, and a quick one.

The terrorists in Iraq have been sending him a message all week long, now, which will bolster his claim that these wars are un-winnable and must be resolved with diplomacy. Of course, since they are not organized representatives of any Government, he will seek to legitimize them with a UN Resolution.

This time next year, we will be out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and civil wars will be called “just honest folks settling the problems we caused, internally”.

The Afghanistan/ Pakistan sabre rattling by Obama in the campaign was tough talk to win an election. He will do nothing of the kind. What did he say in his book? When times get tough “I will stand with the Muslims”.

I fully expect him to give a “pro-US interests” appearance for public viewing, but undermine our interests and military initiatives against Muslim states behind the scenes . . . no matter what the result.

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