They’re using the WPE (”Within Precinct Error”) margins on the exit polls (which show an Obama lead), and which also are coming in pretty close to what the actual 15% of those precincts have reported out, so far. That means that even if they were off (the exit polls, that is) by 4 to 10%, the margins on the WPEs are still so close to the actual tallies, McCain seems to be losing.
It’s a statistical analysis tool, and the nets are jumping on it, based on the polls and the fact that the WPEs are validating the polls, to a large extent. So they feel safe in predicting that that the trends will hold, which they normally do when the WPEs are close to the exit poll numbers.
I’m a McCain supporter, and so’s my wife. It’s bitter gall, right now.
BK
(LCDR, USN, RET)
It must be extra bitter for you.
Thank you for your service. Some of us really appreciate it.