Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rasmussen: Beware of Exit Polls (Republicans don't respond to exit pollsters)
Rasmussen ^

Posted on 11/04/2008 2:40:47 PM PST by Chet 99

Beware of Exit Polls

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Will they or won’t they – take a few minutes to take an exit poll, that is?

Democrats still ache over Election Day 2004 when exit polling showed John Kerry about to become the next president of the United States. The only problem was that the actual vote count put George W. Bush back in the White House for four more years.

And that came just four years after the disastrous exit polling in 2000, when the race on Election Night was called first for Al Gore, then for Bush and then at 4 a.m. was declared “too close to call.” Many voters wonder why they can’t ever seem to get it right?

Part of the frustration may stem from the fact that the primary value of exit polling is to help us understand why people voted the way they did. This is an entirely different task than trying to predict a winner for Internet junkies who can’t wait a few more hours until actual votes are counted.

Reviewing Fox News/Rasmussen Reports data from key battleground states raises a couple red flags about the use of early exit polling data to predict a winner. Understanding this data from polling conducted last Sunday night may save some a repeat of 2004’s heartache.

The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans.

In five of the six states, a majority of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to participate in the exit polling process. At the same time, in five of the six states, fewer than 40% of Republicans would be willing to do the same.

In every state, Republicans are at least twice as likely as Democrats to say that they are not at all willing to take an exit poll.

Unaffiliated voters tend to align more closely to Republicans in all six states in both willingness and unwillingness to participate in exit polls.

In Colorado, for example, 64% of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll. But take a closer look at the numbers: While 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to participate in an exit poll, just 36% of Republicans agree.

In addition to that 16-point spread between Democrats and Republicans, 16% of Colorado’s GOP voters say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll versus eight percent (8%) of Democrats.

There’s an identical 16-point split in North Carolina, where 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but just 36% of Republicans agree. Only six percent (6%) of Democrats say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll, a view shared by 14% of Republican voters.

The closest of the battleground states is Ohio where there’s only an 11-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Just 43% of Republican voters describe themselves as Very Likely to participate in an exit poll compared to 54% of Democrats.

Again, just seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters say they are not likely to take an exit poll at all. Compare that with 12% of Republicans who say the same.

Then there’s the issue of early voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before Tuesday.

In four of the battleground states, among those who had voted by last Sunday, Obama voters outnumber McCain voters by 20-plus points. In Missouri, early voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, while in Colorado Obama voters best McCain voters by “only” 15 points.

In Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.

In part to compensate for this, exit polling has already begun in the 18 states where early voting is allowed. On the basis of our data from the battleground states, however, the responses appear likely to be weighted heavily in Obama’s favor since his voters far outnumber McCain’s. And, remember, Democrats are more willing to play the exit poll game than Republicans.

Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International which handled exit polling in 2004 will again conduct the polls that will be used by the Associated Press and by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. They’re going to great lengths to keep the data under wraps until 5 pm Eastern on Election Day, so any exit data released prior to that time is not from the “official” news consortium.

It was early poll numbers leaked in 2004 that showed Kerry leading Bush, contrary to the final results. One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” Sound familiar?

The networks have agreed not to declare winners in a state until its polls are closed. But they will declare a presidential winner - even if people on the West Coast are still voting - if one candidate has enough Electoral College votes. It takes 270 such votes to win.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/04/2008 2:40:47 PM PST by Chet 99
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Democrats, just like their “dear leader” love the sound of their own voices.


2 posted on 11/04/2008 2:55:41 PM PST by Mrs.Z ("...you're a Democrat. You're expected to complain and offer no solutions." Denny Crane)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
Exit polls are completely unreliable because as I told Jim Rob this morning, they slant Dem and that's why he should yank them. They are NOT representative of the electorate and relying on them leads to erroneous results. That's why I discount an exit poll that says Obama is going to win because... no surprise the bulk of exit poll voters are Democrats!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

3 posted on 11/04/2008 2:56:18 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
On a side note, if McCain is tonight's winner before the polls close on the West Coast, a lot of Dems in California may well give up and go home. If the network consortium insists on declaring a winner before the entire country has finished voting.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

4 posted on 11/04/2008 3:01:04 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
On a side note, if McCain is tonight's winner before the polls close on the West Coast, a lot of Dems in California may well give up and go home. If the network consortium insists on declaring a winner before the entire country has finished voting.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

5 posted on 11/04/2008 3:02:52 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

I’d have just two words for any exit pollster, and they wouldn’t be “Merry Christmas”!


6 posted on 11/04/2008 3:05:35 PM PST by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
The networks have agreed not to declare winners in a state until its polls are closed. But they will declare a presidential winner - even if people on the West Coast are still voting - if one candidate has enough Electoral College votes. It takes 270 such votes to win.

A winner BASED ON THEIR ASSUMPTIONS. I expect Obi will be coronated by 10:00pm at the latest. It may be tomorrow before we know for sure.

7 posted on 11/04/2008 3:07:32 PM PST by workerbee (If you vote for Democrats, you are engaging in UnAmerican Activity.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
Fox news has been talking nothing but the early results of exit polling for the last 45 minutes.

After explaining the fallacies of exit polling 2 hours ago.

8 posted on 11/04/2008 3:13:28 PM PST by 3catsanadog (Drill here, drill now!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 3catsanadog

I just turned them off and started watching the history channel while they were chattering on all chipper and whatnot. They have a problem: what do you talk about if you don’t have anything to talk about until the polls close. So, they do what everybody else is doing which is talk about exit polling. They could probably hold an audience better if they bet on which leaf fell off a tree first or which bird on a wire flew first.


9 posted on 11/04/2008 3:26:55 PM PST by Belasarius (Yet man is born unto trouble, as the sparks fly upward. Job 5:2-7)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99; All
My wife and I voted EARLY this morning in Ormond Beach Florida. We were 7th & 8th in line @ 6:20 am.

At about 6:30am, two women, who appeared to be in their mid-to-late 50's and WAY overdressed, started to set up a plastic card size table with two chairs for them to sit in.

Both had cell phones, which were almost constantly in use until we were let in at 7:00am. On the table was a cardboard box with a slit in the top that someone had scotch taped a white paper on that had about EIGHT logo's of LMSM printed on it.

They were also manipulating two SUBSTANTIAL clipboards which were placed on either side of the "box".

After we voted and were walking past them to go to our car, one of the ladies who was now STANDING next to the table, steps into our path and asks my wife and I if we would like to fill out an "EXIT POLL".

I did not answer her, but the "LOOK" we gave her suddenly made her take a SUBSTANTIAL and VERY HURRIED step back to let us continue to our car.

I'm sure we as McCain-Palin voters were not alone in REFUSING to participating in their TOTALLY BOGUS "early exit poll" efforts.

I don't believe ANY of those stinkin' "exit polls".

10 posted on 11/04/2008 3:28:46 PM PST by musicman (Sarah Palin Runs A STATE - Barack Obama Runs His MOUTH)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.”

Why the hell should I talk to someone who will likely belittle my choices? I associate pollsters with journalists and Democrat politicians. I am a proud bitter clinger! (And we don't talk to strangers...)
11 posted on 11/04/2008 3:35:27 PM PST by CottonBall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 3catsanadog
Interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections as procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed led to inflated estimates of support for John F. Kerry, according to a report released yesterday by the research firms responsible for the flawed surveys.

LOL!
12 posted on 11/04/2008 3:38:36 PM PST by CottonBall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Important BTTT!!!!!

Keep voting....especially outside the Eastern time zones.


13 posted on 11/04/2008 3:52:53 PM PST by Right_in_Virginia (VOTE on November 4th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
"Republicans don't respond to exit pollsters."

When you have to go on to work, you don't have time to stop and chat with a pollster for 25 minutes.

14 posted on 11/04/2008 4:01:03 PM PST by norwaypinesavage (Global Warming Theory is extremely robust with respect to data. All observations confirm it)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
n Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.

Is this true--First time I saw these numbers

Not good if true
15 posted on 11/04/2008 4:09:24 PM PST by uncbob (es wouold realize that but iguess their arrogance)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson