Posted on 11/03/2008 9:27:22 PM PST by Truthsearcher
...I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days....
(Excerpt) Read more at seanmalstrom.wordpress.com ...
the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed
Here is a simply brilliant idea: try polling INDIES! They are the ones that determine the elections.
3 strikes and they’re out! They screwed up in 2000, again in 2004, and I think they’re way off in 2008. The media had been dying until the whole Obama thing started. They’ve bet everything on him. If he fails, he will take most of the media down with him.
Not if, WHEN!!
As Rush pointed out, the undecided voters are huge. Obama supporters made up their minds a long time ago. I think McCain takes most of the undecided. I couldn’t believe there were that many who have not made their decisions by now.
I want McCain to win now for no other reason than to contact all of the MSM outlets and tell them to stick their polls up there collective behinds (I have another word for it that I’ll be using).
The future of that business need not be destroyed, just the current crop of its practitioners.
And not unduly.
HF
This is a great article.
We will win. Check it out ...
0) “Coalgate” http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123235/posts
1) ACORN has been stuffing the Democratic registration lists for years now, especially this year. Pollsters use these stuffed registered-voter lists to poll real people, so if the lists read 60%D, 40%R, the pollster will poll 60 Ds for every 40 Rs. If every D were for Obama and every R were for McCain, Obama ought to be ahead by 20 points in the polls He’s not! Ergo, McCain is actually ahead and doesn’t know it!
2) The press (AP, MSNBC, NYT) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123219/posts
3) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
4) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
5) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
6) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY was Obama ever up 14 points! He won’t even break 49%.
7) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
8) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
9) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
10) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
11) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
12) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
13) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
14) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
15) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
16) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
17) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
18) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
19) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html Long time Democrat votesrs are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
20) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
21) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
22) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
23) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
24) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
25) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
26) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
27) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
28) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
29) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
30) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
31) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
32) Obama will get 1% less Evangelical votes than Kerry did. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2123218/posts
33) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Fellow Freepers, please post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
Without reading the article....
The percentage of people polled that refuse to answer is high and growing. The people who did respond to the pollsters are said to think that the No. 1 issue is the economy. The people I know who don’t care to respond to pollsters think that the top issue is the preservation of the Constitution, the 1st and 2nd Amendments in particular. There could be a good conservative turnout like in 1994 and for similar reasons.
Furthermore along the same lines, there are a lot of basically conservative people who don’t care for politics (or Bush) that usually don’t vote, but will rise to the occasion of saving the country. Pollsters won’t consider them “likely voters” because they did not vote in 2004.
Hope that works out.
The most interesting part of his analysis is (I think correctly) the parallels he drew between Sarah Palin with not Reagan but Truman.
Socialist utopia.
Thanks for the ping. Who is this guy?
This guy is brilliant. Even if McCain loses, it will be very close and a lot closer than it would’ve been otherwise had it not been for what this guy said.
LOL! I don't think it is possible for me to have less respect for the media after this election. What a blazing display of idiocy.
Thanks for posting.
The PUMAs have got to be giving the Obamunists ulcers! LOL
“And, as a final word, let us return to Pennslyvania and discuss this story from Hillbuzz. In it, there is a story of a Hillary Clinton Campaign Manager who became a PUMA and is shapherding much of the effort for the PUMAs in Pennslyvania.
Harriet and Betty Jean are back from the airport. They were turned down at the rally for McCain because there wasn’t room. So they high tailed it to the airport with their signs in the hope they could see him. They saw McCain’s car drive onto the tarmac and were despondent when the car headed away from them. Then, the car abruptly turned around and John McCain leapt out of the car and he ran over to the group with a huge smile on his face. Cindy and Joe Lieberman quickly followed. Betty Jean said McCain was quicker than the Secret Service who had to run to keep up with him. McCain thanked them enthusiastically and hugged Betty Jean. It made her day.”
**, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed **
Gas in the car.
I could have been in the Chicago area, but told my daughter “No.”
Very long indeed but fascinating.
LS, pinged for your consumption.
Chicago is bracing for hundreds of thousands of people in Grant Park tomorrow night for Obama’s “victory” celebration.
I can’t believe the gall of this guy with his huge crowds. He couldn’t make a convention speech in the convention hall. He had to be in a stadium. He couldn’t make an election night appearance among small groups of supporters, or stay in a hotel and wait for results before he says anything. Instead, he’s got to be in a huge outdoor city park surrounded by the masses.
If he hopes to make a prime time victory speech, he may be disappointed. Depending on how the vote count is going, if some states in the east are close and can’t be called either way, he could be there till 2 a.m. or later. What’s he going to say at 11 p.m. to 100,000 people if the election nationwide is still too close to call at that point? What will he say if he has to give a concession speech? What will the crowd do? Will the mood of the crowd turn ugly if Obama narrowly loses????
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