Posted on 11/03/2008 2:08:06 PM PST by Mrs.Z
Drudge headline on an internal memo from Republicans on the exit polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at drudgereport.com ...
Interesting take from the Republicans.
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Conclusions
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
It’s more than their “take” or opinion, it’s the truth.
You do remember 2004?
Is this like when the called the state of Florida for Gore before th Panhandle region had voted..?
Nevada Early Voter Exit Poll shows Obama up 5% among 16k early voters who took the exit poll.
This is great news for McCain IMO as Dems are outvoting Republicans in early voting. The exit polls overstated Obama’s support in the primaries.
Oops - the key points and paragraph after are from the memo. My italics didn’t work as expected ;(
Anyone who remembers 2000 knows exit polls are not even worthy to be put on the toilet roll.
Doubly so this time easy.
The Obamnunists will be walking out with strobe lights on looking for a pollster to brag to about how many times they voted for the messiah.
I’m thinking they’ll call the entire election before Californians even get up.
Is it just me, or does the MSM seem even more biased and blatant about it this year?
Conversely, anything less then the overstated amounts that Kerry got, should worry the hell out of the Obamunists.
IMHO it should be a federal felony to do any early calls, including “polls”.
Conservatives work for a living and don’t worship the sound of our own voices.
We have better things to do after we participate in the only poll that counts.
Great memo - thanks for posting! They are absolutely right too.
I don’t worry about polls.
It is a fact not a take that has been known since 2004. I received a call around 2p.m. on election day in 2004 from someone inside the campaign who said to get the word out to ignore exist polls because they were not correct.
IMHO Exit polling should be forbidden because it is going to leak.
This morning on Good Morning America, George Stephanopoulus was practically giddy as he was crowing about the polls being “remarkably consistent” in Obama’s favor. He was sporting a broad smile, and Diane Sawyer was cooing softly in the background.
They're all IN THE TANK for the Chosen 0ne, and the farcical exit “polling” is just part of the shameless attempt to push their guy over the top.
My take is what “the computers” tell who the winner is. Nuff said.
Exit polls should be illegal, as should be calling an election prior to the REAL polls closing.
6. The media is pushing it’s obama agenda and will try to discourage you from voting, especially those in the mountain and western time zones.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.