Posted on 11/03/2008 7:38:36 AM PST by MaverickElephant
Friends:
If you've been listening to the news and poll results this past week, you're probably thinking the election on Tuesday is a mere formality at this point, and that the outcome is all but pre-ordained.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Did you know, for instance, that pollster John Zogby predicted Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton in the California Presidential Primary by 13 points?
She won by 9.6 percent. That's nearly a TWENTY-THREE POINT DIFFERENCE (result vs. poll prediction). The same exact thing happened in many other States.
How can any "professional" pollster be off by TWENTY-THREE PERCENT? Answer: they can't - unless they are either grossly incompetent, or have an agenda to influence the outcome of a race. And, firms like Zogby have been doing this a very long time, so draw your own conclusions as to whether it is incompetence or "push polling" to influence the outcome of an election.
Also - did you know that most polls (Zobgy, Rasmussen, Pew Research, CBS and most of the others) 'OVERSAMPLE' (ie: poll more) DEMOCRATS BY 8 TO 15 PERCENT? For instance, the latest ABC poll (if you look at the "internals") shows D: 37, R: 28. (?!!) That is a NINE point "oversampling". And, guess what? Obama was "ahead" by nine points in this poll - which exactly matches the oversampling percentages.
Pew Research's latest poll is "weighted" 39% D, 24% R, 30% Independent and 2% "no preference". And, surprise - with a FIFTEEN PERCENT WEIGHTING to the Dems, Obama is ahead by 15. (What a coincidence!)
Survey USA just put out another "overweighted" poll last night, having Obama up by THREE in Minnesota (not a state expected to go McCain/Palin). Yet, they "oversampled" Dems by SEVEN (39D/32R/25I). Yet, in the 2004 election, the actual turnout was 38/35/27. So, how on earth can they justify this type of sample? Easy - they can't.
And the REAL kicker - out just today from Gallup..(you've probably heard it on the news) - "Obama is ahead by ELEVEN Percent!! Election is O-V-E-R!". What they unfortunately do NOT tell you is this: they oversampled Democrats by TEN PERCENT! So, "best case" - Obama is up by ONE percent - well within the "Margin Of Error (MOE)" nationally.
Now, here's where it gets really interesting - did you know that the Mason Dixon state-by-state poll (among the most accurate in previous elections) shows McCain/Palin UP in key battleground states, and that Obama is not even at 50% in ANY of them? They believe McCain/Palin are up by 2 in Ohio. Up 1 in Missouri. Up 3 in North Carolina. But, I'm guessing that you probably haven't heard about ANY of this on CBS, NBC, MSNBC or ABC.
Pollsters attempt to justify this, by saying they expect a larger Democrat turnout this time around. Yet, history does not bear that out. In both the 2000 and the 2004 elections, the turnout for Dems vs. Republicans was "essentially" even (perhaps one or two points in either direction). And, in "early voting" currently happening across the country, there is no evidence of huge Democrat margins, either.
So, what could be behind this "oversampling" phenomenon?
In my opinion, the answer is simple: the media, the pollsters, and the pundits are all completely committed to do WHATEVER they can to assure an Obama victory - even at the risk of their own personal and professional reputations. So, they are "spinning" the story the best they can (even using inflated, inaccurate data) to demoralize Republicans, in a completely transparent attempt to suppress voter turnout on Tuesday for our party. Don't let them get away with it!!
Most of you know that the media has long held an abject hatred for the Republican party and our "traditional" American beliefs and values. There's ample evidence to support this and their blatant bias, and documenting that is not the purpose of this message. But suffice it to say - the media and the pollsters in general HATE the Republicans, and will do ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING to assure our complete destruction, defeat and humiliation. To them, this is not an election. It is a WAR for the soul and future direction of our country. (As a quick example, just watch Chris Matthews [MSNBC anchor] or Keith Olbermann [ditto], or Campbell Brown at CNN. Or Katie Couric at CBS. Or Brian Williams at NBC. Even the usually reliable Fox News Channel - outside of Bill O'Reilley and Sean Hannity (and a few others) have done everything they can to promote an Obama "win". [There's an excellent video on YouTube of MSNBC's Chris Matthews saying that Obama gives him a "tingle up his leg" - how's THAT for "objective reporting" from a supposedly "neutral" network?!]. NBC has been called "Obama campaign headquarters" by O'Reilley (and with good reason). And even the press core has turned on and publicly ridiculed MSNBC for their outrageously corrupt and laughable "reporting". Anyway, I digress..most agree that the media is "in the tank" for Obama - as are the pollsters. The point here is that YOU CANNOT TRUST THEM to report the 'truth' at this point, and the hard data bears this out).
PLEASE help us get the word out by forwarding to your friends, neighbors and anyone you know. This election is FAR from over and could easily go either way. Even here in XXX, where there are strong rumors that McCain/Palin are "within the margin of error". And PLEASE - BY ALL MEANS - GET TO THE POLLS ON TUESDAY!!
Hope you found this helpful, and that it's provided some insight. Thanks for listening.
- M.E.
Here is a meaningful one, and it’s spot-on:
http://peacemoonbeam.typepad.com/scooters_report/
GOTTA VOTE!!
Yep, and the polls really messed up the D primary in NH.
Great post.
Nice job.
well, after Tuesday, we’re done with polls for a while, as we all see the actual results.
And we’ll know the answer to everyone’s questions about how accurate these polls really are. Lotsa folks here think that these polls had the numbers manipulated to show higher support for Obama. And that polls were inflated in certain states such as Pennsylvania on behalf of Obama. We’ll soon know the answers to all these questions.
The polls in New Hampshire couldn’t measure the impact of what happens when a candidate starts crying. LOL.
I put no faith in polls or pols................God only............
Don’t forget that their are a lot of PUMA voters, a lot of Operation Chaos Republicans still registered as Dems, a lot of conservatives who refuse to talk to pollsters, a lot of independents who are lying to pollsters about Obama, and a lot of unregistered voters probably lying to pollsters and saying they are registered.
Polls are skewed this time. VOTE!
Welcome to FR!
GOTV!!!
I would like to believe you but I have to ask, how can so many polls be so wrong and for so long. I don’t think the American people are voting for Obama so much as they are voting against the status quo. Obama just happens to be there and to reap the benefit.
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"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."
"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it."
This comes out of the British pollsters total meltdown in 1992, when they ALL got it badly wrong.
Zogby I think is a muslim. That should explain his polls.
Good analysis.
The fight is on for the first network to announce that Obama is the winner. Place your bets.
But, I’m guessing that you probably haven’t heard about ANY of this on CBS, NBC, MSNBC or ABC.
You have not heard this on FOX news either. Sadly.
“I would like to believe you but I have to ask, how can so many polls be so wrong and for so long. I don’t think the American people are voting for Obama so much as they are voting against the status quo. Obama just happens to be there and to reap the benefit.”
Oversamplingd dems, Bradley effect, PUMAs.
Nicely done!
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