Posted on 11/01/2008 8:19:02 PM PDT by Red Steel
I'm going to fight for my cause every day as your President. I'm going to fight to make sure every American has every reason to thank God, as I thank Him: that I'm an American, a proud citizen of the greatest country on earth, and with hard work, strong faith and a little courage, great things are always within our reach. Fight with me. Fight with me." - John McCain
Use this calendar to find the latest events for McCain-Palin 2008. 11/1/2008 11:30:00 PM - New York, NY Live from New York... Tune in tonight to watch John McCain's special appearance on Saturday Night Live.
11/2/2008 8:45:00 AM - Wallingford, PA Road to Victory Rally in Wallingford, PA Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Wallingford, PA on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 8:45 a.m.
11/2/2008 9:00:00 AM - Canton , OH Road to Victory Rally in Canton, OH Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Canton, OH on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 9:00 a.m.
11/2/2008 10:30:00 AM - Las Vegas, NV Victory 2008 Phone Bank Rally in Las Vegas, NV Please join Actor Stephen Baldwin & Captain Jerry Coffee for a Victory 2008 Phone Bank Rally in Las Vegas, NV on Sunday November 2nd.
11/2/2008 11:00:00 AM - Scranton , PA Road to Victory Rally in Scranton, PA Please join John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Scranton, PA on Sunday November 2nd.
11/2/2008 11:30:00 AM - Marietta , OH Road to Victory Rally in Marietta, OH Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Marietta, OH on Sunday November 2nd.
11/2/2008 2:00:00 PM - Columbus , OH Road to Victory Rally in Columbus, OH Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Columbus, OH on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 2:00 p.m.
11/2/2008 3:30:00 PM - Evansville , IN Road to Victory Get-Out-The-Vote Rally in Evansville, IN Please join Governor Mitt Romney for a Road to Victory Get-Out-The-Vote Rally in Evansville, IN on Sunday November 2nd.
11/2/2008 4:30:00 PM - Peterborough , NH Straight Talk Town Hall with John McCain in Peterborough, NH Please join John McCain for a Straight Talk Town Hall in Peterborough, NH on Sunday November 2nd. Special Guest: Red Sox Pitcher, Curt Schilling.
11/2/2008 5:00:00 PM - Owensville , OH Road to Victory Rally in Owensville, OH Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Owensville, OH on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 5:00 p.m.
11/2/2008 7:30:00 PM - Coral Gables , FL Road to Victory Rally in Miami, FL Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Miami, FL on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 7:30 p.m.
11/3/2008 6:00:00 AM - Tampa , FL Road to Victory Rally in Tampa, FL Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Tampa, FL on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 6:00 a.m.
11/3/2008 6:30:00 AM - Lakewood , OH Road to Victory Rally in Lakewood, OH Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Lakewood, OH on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 6:30 a.m.
11/3/2008 8:00:00 AM - Jefferson City , MO Road to Victory Rally in Jefferson City, MO Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Jefferson City, MO on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 8:00 a.m.
11/3/2008 8:30:00 AM - Blountville , TN Road to Victory Rally in Blountville, TN Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory in Blountville, TN on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 8:30 a.m.
11/3/2008 10:45:00 AM - Moon Township , PA Road to Victory Rally in Moon Township, PA Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Moon Township, PA on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 10:45 a.m.
11/3/2008 12:00:00 PM - Dubuque , IA Road to Victory Rally in Dubuque, IA Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Dubuque, IA on Monday November 3rd.
11/3/2008 2:00:00 PM - Indianapolis , IN Road to Victory Rally in Indianapolis, IN Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Indianapolis, IN on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 2:00 p.m.
11/3/2008 3:00:00 PM - Roswell , NM Road to Victory Rally in Roswell, NM Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Roswell, NM on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 3:00 p.m.
11/3/2008 3:30:00 PM - Colorado Springs , CO Road to Victory Rally in Colorado Springs, CO Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Colorado Springs, CO on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 3:30 p.m.
11/3/2008 4:00:00 PM - Henderson , NV Road to Victory Rally in Henderson, NV Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Henderson, NV on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 4:00 p.m.
11/3/2008 5:30:00 PM - Reno , NV Road to Victory Rally in Reno, NV Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Reno, NV on Monday November 3rd.
11/3/2008 8:30:00 PM - Elko, NV Road to Victory Rally in Elko, NV Please join Govenor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally on Monday November 3rd in Elko, NV.
11/3/2008 9:00:00 PM - Prescott , AZ Midnight Road to Victory Rally in Prescott, AZ Please join Senator John McCain & Cindy McCain for a Midnight Road to Victory Rally in Prescott, AZ on Monday November 3rd. Doors open at 9:00 p.m.
Its Ohio, Pa, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
We’re going to win PA, dammit, and I have the mathematical support to prove it (provided all McCain/Palin supporters come out and vote)
1) We know about 5.7 M voted in PA. This time, it’s estimated to be 6.2 M
(2) The 2004 Make-Up was D +41 R+ 39 I+20
The 2006 Make-Up was D +43 R+38 I+19
In both circumstances, the Independents broke for Kerry and Casey Jr. over 20 pints.
Kerry retained 85% of Dems, Casey 93%, Rendell 90%
Bush Retained 89% of GOP, Santorum 86%, Swann 76%
Despite 2006 being a really bad year for the GOP, the turnout in PA was only a point off during and election cycle in which many chose to stay home. Given that Casey ran as a conservative pro-life Democrat was the probable cause to Santorum’s base support falling so short and Casey’s going so high. Notice the opposite was true in the Bush/Kerry race. There’s definitely a percentage of PA Democrats that are much more conservative than their Philadelphia counterparts.
From the numbers above, it is likely that Independents will make up at least 20% of the electorate. .
Obama, like Kerry, is not what you would call a “conservative Democrat”. Additionally, Obama does not appeal the same way Kerry did to the Union Democrats. Enter Joe Biden. But is that enough? Given the history of the last two cycles, it is safe to assume that McCain/Palin will get at least 91% of the GOP vote. But what percentage of the GOP will make up the PA electorate. Judging from the last two elections, it’s a good bet it will be at least 38%, again. The Democrats meanwhile will probably make up 42% of the PA voting group due to Operation Chaos, GOP defectors, etc, probably keeps this at.42%.
Obama is having problems with the Unions, PUMA’s, and other conservative Democrats. It’s hard to see him retain the 85% Kerry had and I doubt he’ll anywhere near what Casey or Rendell carried. Zogby’s latest showing had Obama around 75% support. I don’t think it will be that low. It will be closer to the Kerry number, perhaps 82 or 83% (I’ll use 82% for this purpose).
So Given these numbers, assuming 6.2M Voters
GOP
McCain = 91% of 38% of 6.2 Million = 2,143,960
Obama = 9% of 38% of 6.2 Million = 212,040
DEM
McCain = 18% of 42% of 6.2 Million = 468,720
Obama = 82% of 42% of 6.2 Million = 2,135,280
That makes it McCain 2,612,680 to Obama 2,347,320
The history for Independents, despite the lopsided margin for both Kerry (59%) in 2004 shows that they too are more swayed by ‘moderate or conservative candidates” Casey (73%) in 2006. If they make up 20% of the electorate or 1,300,000, Obama would need to win 902,480 or roughly 69% of the Independents to get over 50% of the vote given these numbers. That’s a number 10 points higher than Kerry and just under Casey by 4, and matching exactly what Fast Eddie got.
Now I ask you how probable is that? And for all those polls having Obama ahead by seven points assumes he is holding the base better Kerry and closer to Casey and Rendell. I find this completely unbelievable. The demographics do not support it.
Let me know what you think
and Missouri....I live here in Missouri and I believe Missouri will go McCain.
Before anyone panics about TN, look up Blountville in Google maps. It’s 3 miles from VA.
NH, NM, IA, PA all tell the real story.
That and there’s only 1 visit to CO, and that’s Palin. NH and NM were tougher sells than CO and McCain’s visiting there more often than CO. McCain thinks he’s got it in the bag.
Wow!
Obama: "Doesn't this guy ever slow down?"
Thank you!
The history for Independents, despite the lopsided margin for both Kerry (59%) in 2004 shows that they too are more swayed by ‘moderate or conservative candidates” Casey (73%) in 2006. If they make up 20% of the electorate or 1,300,000, Obama would need to win 902,480 or roughly 69% of the Independents to get over 50% of the vote given these numbers. That’s a number 10 points higher than Kerry and just under Casey by 4, and matching exactly what Fast Eddie got.
That’s the whole kettle of fish in a nutshell.
Well done.
Why waste time with rallies in TN and NM. TN is solid for McCain and NM will go for Obama. Why are they doing a rally in each of these two states?
Are they confident about VA or have they written it off?
Look up Blountville, TN on Google maps. It’s 3 miles below VA. McCain is going there for the swing SW VA vote.
Joe Biden doesn’t sound too confident about VA. http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/31/biden-tells-reporters-mccain-wont-give-up/
Also, the TN rally really counts as a VA rally since it’s just 3 miles south of VA. SW VA is a swing area.
The real story is that they’re spending their days in NH, NM, PA, IA.
I like your analysis. :-)
Tri-Cities Regional Airport (IATA: TRI, ICAO: KTRI), also known as Tri-Cities Regional Airport, TN/VA, is a public airport located adjacent to Blountville, Tennessee. It primarily serves the Tri-Cities area of Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia that includes the following cities: Johnson City; Kingsport; Bristol; Elizabethton; Mountain City; Jonesborough, Erwin; Rogersville; Greeneville, and; the cities of Bristol, Virginia; Abingdon, Virginia, and Boone, North Carolina just across the Virginia and North Carolina state borders from Northeast Tennessee. Several counties within a 60-mile radius in Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina are served by the airport.
Wow! That was smart. Thanks Jim.
Thanks for the TN explanation, forecast is for rain in the eastern part of Virginia and North Carolina, was wondering if this helps us.
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