I work for a conservative Christian company. Four years ago I’d bet it was 95:5 Bush over Kerry. This year I’d say it is closer to 70:30 McCain over Obama.
Unfortunately, I think the numbers in this poll are not far removed from reality.
What are you basing this on?
Furthermore, you say your estimate is 70-30 McCain. Yet you say that poll (which is basically even) is not far from reality. Well, 70-30 and tied is a pretty big difference. Explain that.