YES TO MCCAIN-PALIN '08 FOR AMERICA
SARAH PALIN DRAWING HUGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/joeplumber.htm
Posted on 10/30/2008 10:26:09 AM PDT by LS
Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in the post below about Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.
If Republicans were a lot more of the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.
In Clark County, "through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans."
"In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans."
Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its surrounding area, has 68.7 percent of the registered voters in the state. Washoe County, which includes Reno, has 18.6 percent of the registered voters in the state.
In Clark County, Democrats hold a 46.3 percent to 32.3 percent edge in voter registration. In Washoe County, the split is 39.2 percent Democrat, 38.7 percent Republican.
With those numbers, you would expect Obama to be ahead by a much wider margin. Unless that poll of the early voters was way off — and this pollster managed to reach roughly one out of every 43 early voters; think about that when you see a poll of 1,000 designed to represent a national voting pool of 120-130 million voters! — a considerable number of Democrats and independents/unaffiliateds in Nevada are voting for McCain.
No pollster has had McCain ahead in Nevada since the end of September. So why is McCain so dramatically overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?
I’ll only be content when it’s called Tuesday night in favour of a real HERO. (and Heroine - Palin’s aces)
This tracks with what I’ve been seeing about OH. So, if the polls on OH and NV were full of macaca what does that tell us about VA and PA?
Thanks LS... apart from winning the election in general, I’d love to see McC take Harry’s state!
We didn’t trust baloney exit polls in ‘04, and I sure as hell are not believing them now.
So why is McCain so dramatically overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?
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Because he’d be a better President.
Because the dems in NV have some semblance of sanity.
UGH! Let’s actually WIN the state before we call it, and that can’t happen until Tuesday night. This is the kind of junk that comes back to bite you you know where.
Hmm, well, you absolutely can believe the #s of people who have voted. Those are beyond dispute. While it’s POSSIBLE that most Dems don’t vote Dem, I think if we assume that ALL Dems vote Dem and if ALL GOP votes GOP (which way overstates Obama’s case), these are incredible numbers.
Easy, McCain dems will win this for MacPalin. Its over for the creepy crappy crummy commie and his kooky ca-ca cornhole cronies.
What about Operation Chaos? Didnt some change their party affiliation to vote in the Dem. primaries? Could this have something to do with these odd numbers.???
Some. Some of it is that it is a mistake to think Obama will carry as high a % of Dems as Kerry did. He won’t. In fact, I’m still waiting for evidence that he will win a higher level of the BLACK vote than Algore did. I know that’s the presumption-—but in three out of five polls where I’ve been able to look at race, Obama not only trails Gore, he trails Kerry!!
There is just NO WAY IN HELL, that a large number of old school Reagan democrats are not coming out in a big way for McCain. NO WAY IN 1000 YEARS!
I live in Joisey and it's a deep blue state. Anecdotally, there was way more Kerry/Edwards enthusiasm in '04 then there is for Obama. Many life long dems I know literally laugh out loud or spit in disgust when I ask if they are voting for Obama-and these are people that DESPISE Dubya. i am not saying he won't win NJ-but it will be closer than the pollsters think (or will say).
*snicker*
If this is real, it sounds excellent.
I think there will be a tidal wave for McCain. The only question is whether Obama can rig enough fake votes to steal the election.
He has the Chicago Machine working for him, and George Soros, and the left wing billionaire club, and what seems to be a huge country-wide network that allowed him to steal primaries from hillary in many states. He has almost certainly arranged to steal a number of key states—Ohio, for instance, through unprecedented vote stealing in the big cities.
This Obama machine has been building ever since Obama was an undergraduate at Columbia. Unbelievable. So we need to get as overwhelming a victory as POSSIBLE. In congress as well as the White House.
“So why is McCain so dramatically overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?”
I think it has a lot to do with the NRA.
I've been calling it Obamacaca now.
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