Posted on 10/28/2008 2:59:02 PM PDT by mathprof
With all due respect to Judis, I'm not popping anything just yet, except maybe some sleeping pills to get me through the night. (That's for you, John.) In the last few days, pretty much every tracking poll I trust (WaPo, Gallup, Rasmussen) and several I either don't trust (that would be you, Zogby) or don't have much of an opinion about (Kos, Investor's Business Daily) has shifted toward McCain, in some cases sharply. While some of the more traditional (i.e., non-tracking) polls show Obama with a big lead--like the Pew poll Judis cites--these polls tend to reflect older information.
As of this writing, Obama's lead in the national tracking polls looks to be around five points (I get 5.5 when I average all six of the trackers I mentioned, along with the Hotline and Battleground trackers, which haven't changed much in the last few days). If that drops two-to-three points, as it easily could in a week, I don't think it's crazy to think McCain will have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or Colorado. Unlikely, yes, but not crazy. According to sites like Real Clear and Pollster.com, Obama's lead in those states is currently larger than his 5.5 point national lead (significantly so in Pennsylvania). But, as I argued last week, the relationship between battleground-state numbers and national numbers can change significantly as we approach the finish, and those state averages you see could easily be a week out of date.
My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge--the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week--and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early. I'd feel more comfortable if he roughed McCain up a bit longer (though, in fairness, his "closing argument" speech is very good and it does take some swipes at McCain. Also, it's not like the campaign isn't still running tough ads.).
Surprisingly, he doesn't know that IBD was the most accurate poll in 2004, though.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Don’t forget Battleground, their 4 way poll has Bambi + 2 over Mac, same as today’s Gallup which has Bambi + 2 in a two way contest.
It was one of the closer ones in 2004.
When the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, you know the Pew poll is way off.
I can’t remember GW being ahead in any polls for either of his elections. Does anybody know if he was?
I like the bit about Obama roughing McCain up a bit more and not running “tough” enough ads. Tough or not, his ads are just plain lies. But foolish little me, I guess I should take that for granted as the Dims do. They rate their ads on a scale of toughness, since a scale of truthfulness would be meaningless.
He was for both. He was ahead of Gore before the DWI story leaked in 2000. He would have won comfortably otherwise. he also lead most of the way after the convention in 2004. Kerry had a bounce that put him in the lead between conventions. Bush led from September 1st all the way across the finish line.
I was reading this and the guy has no clue about IBD or BattleGround. Typical lib magazine where the writers are not very bright.
I recall a smallish indie film about the writer who worked for The New Republic who made up dozens of stories. Just totally invented people, places, names, dates and “facts.” The film was called Shattered Glass.
Forbes Magazine eventually busted the guy. It starred Hayden Christiansen (Star Wars 6) and Peter Saarsgard as his editor. Hayden played Stephen Glass the writer who just made things up for supposedly factual stories.
What a joke. The editor busted him because Forbes was going public with the story. His young lib co-workers took the side of the dishonest writer who just made things up. Gave some real insight into how libs care little about the truth or integrity.
After watching the film on cable I always laugh about The New Republic because The Onion has more credibility.
What do these people find so delightful about an Obama victory? They obviously don’t know what they’re talking about.
No he wasn’t.... and in 2004 the exit polls had people thinking Kerry had won and Hannity kept telling everyone to get out there and vote!!
The New Republic has a very interesting history, going back to its founding days when it was very pro-fascist. Jonah Goldberg describes much of it in his excellent book, “Liberal Fascism”.
Oh really? I did not know that. Well...I always knew they were not very bright, but it’s funny to hear they were making up stuff.
Anyway, they should be worried, because since 1968 (that’s 40 years), Democratic Presidents have been elected 12 of those years. The Republicans 28 years.
We are a conservative country for the most part. Clinton won pretending to be a southern moderate democrat, the “new democrat” as I recall.
lol...what a phony.
Polls could be wrong? Nah.
Gee, they’ve always been right in past elections.
Go back to sleep.
Queue up the Jaws soundtrack because the McCain/Palin GREAT WHITE is circling. Be very afraid!
Leni
I sometimes wonder if all the pollsters are secretly hiding a McCain win or even landslide. They gave 0bama as much advantage as they could have and are all moving closer so they won’t look so wrong on election day, to save a little cred.
Didn't you know? Obama will be "THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT" (sorry, Bill). He's "clean and articulate" (in Biden's words). He has a LAW degree! (We need more lawyers in government.) He was a COMMUNITY ORGANIZER! What else do you want?! He's so well-qualified how can anyone not be delighted? Anyone who would even consider voting against him must by definition be a RACIST!
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