News outlets sweat over exit poll accuracy

Politico ^ | Mon Oct 20, 2008 | David Paul Kuhn

[AngelesCrestHighway]

Media outlets are preparing for the possibility that their Election Day surveys could be skewed because of overstated support for Barack Obama, largely because of the enthusiasm of his supporters. While exit polling is a notoriously inexact science—early exit poll results suggested John Kerry would be elected president in 2004—the introduction of several new variables, ranging from the zeal of Obama’s supporters to his racial background to widespread early voting, is causing concerns among those who charged with conducting the surveys and the networks that will be reporting them. “It’s in some ways the flip side of non-cooperation,” said one pollster involved in preparations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, “It’s over-cooperation by certain people.” Unlike a traditional poll that asks voters who they intend to support, exit polls are taken outside the polling place immediately after voters have cast their ballots. The interviewing begins when the polls open in the morning and lasts throughout the day until shortly before the polls close. The exit polls are conducted by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News formed in 2003. In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results. The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton's, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

Let the sweating begin!.....

[mgc1122]

Worrying about poll accuracy? Laughable considering they let the accuracy and fairness in reporting news go by the wayside years ago ...

[Steely Tom]

It’s over-cooperation by certain people.”

That's funny.

[MittFan08]

I’m taking off the afternoon on election day to vote and then go fishing. I won’t subject myself to a day of hitting refresh on the computer screen waiting for bogus exit polls. I will turn on the tv around 9 pm and see what the deal is then.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

Good idea!.....about the fishing I mean....

[CodeToad]

Since when has their polls actually matched the results??

They are so biased it isn’t funny. They polls places like New York, LA, SF, Atlanta, and Boston then think they are getting conservative viewpoints.

[Red Badger]

If I’m exit polled (which I doubt) I’ll say I’m for OBAMUGABE!...............

[Palladin]

“It’s over-cooperation by certain people.”

This is happening in all the pre-election polls as well.

The Bradley Effect is going to pack a wallop in this election.

[Outland]

I always lie to pollsters.
Keep the other side guessing.

[Hugin]

How about no exit polls and just announce the actual vote counts as they come in?

Just a thought.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

It may be funny — but, it's also likely accurate.

Here's part of what I wrote about the flip-side of this last month:

“My humble suggestion (as a foreigner) is that Republicans should make a point of taking exit polls, wherever they have a chance. I suspect that Republicans tend to decline to take exit polls — or else that the pollsters are biased, and skip over anyone who looks “Republican” (i.e. clean, dressed well, sober, etc.).”

Here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2094139/posts

[Onerom99]

Kerry was definently a benefit of “Shy Tory” in the exit polls.

[PapaBear3625]

I’m sure there will be a bunch of people living in rabid Obama districts who would feel intimidated to be asked how they voted, especially with Obama goons within hearing range.

[pepsionice]

Perhaps a suggestion for everyone along the coastal states....when you exit...automatically say “Obama”. As the initial results get reported...the networks are all smiling...then three hours later...results get drastically different...and you start to see some real hotheads. These idiots deserve it.

[Yo-Yo]

Then don't exit poll. Wait until votes are counted, then REPORT THE RESULTS.

Oh, I'm sorry, I thought news outlets were supposed to report the news, not make it. My bad.

[CharacterCounts]

Yes, they want to be accurate on exit polling because there mistakes are immediately apparent.

[Paleo Conservative]

I’m taking off the afternoon on election day to vote and then go fishing. I won’t subject myself to a day of hitting refresh on the computer screen waiting for bogus exit polls. I will turn on the tv around 9 pm and see what the deal is then.

I'm going to be an alternate election judge, so not only will I not be looking at the polls online, it will be prohibited for anyone at the voting precinct to talk about them.

[snarkytart]

Oh don't worry, they'll report an early phony Obama victory in the afternoon, like with Kerry.
Their game has been to suppress Republican votes the last couple of election cycles.

[ApplegateRanch]

I hope they sweat great rivers of huge, yellowish globules of sopping, stinking fear-sweat, that soaks and sticks their sodden clothing to them, and fills their squelching shoes to overflowing.

[allmendream]

Expect the news media (if it is even close) to call it for 0bama early and often in an attempt to depress Republican voter turn out. They will call Florida again while the panhandle is still voting. Count on it.

Don't fall for it.