Posted on 10/21/2008 9:11:11 AM PDT by Reagan Man
The current financial crisis is painful and unpredictable, but no serious economist believes it will last more than four years. That means that President Obama (or, for that matter, President McCain) will be able to campaign for re-election with the claim that he arrived during “the worst economy since the Great Depression” and brought America back to prosperity and growth. If the next President handles our economic challenges with skill and wisdom, we will likely see the beginnings of recovery by the end of 2009 or early in 2010. If the new chief executive responds in a clumsy, misguided manner (with a heavier tax burden and more government spending, for instance) it could delay the inevitable comeback till 2011 or even 2012. Of course, a recovery that begins in 2012 (a likely development under Obama) would leave the incumbent perfectly situated for a landslide re-election.
In American politics, incumbent presidents almost always win re-election. Even Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, despite angrily alienating big segments of the public, won solid re-election victories –in part, because of the healthy economic conditions at the time of their campaigns. In the last 75 years, White House incumbents have run for re-election thirteen times, and ten of those times they’ve won. The only losers limited to one term (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush) suffered from tough economic circumstances and spirited primary challenges in their own parties (from Ronald Reagan, Ted Kennedy, and Pat Buchanan, respectively). If Obama wins in November, there’s little chance he’ll face either economic hardship or opposition from a fellow Democrat. In other words, he’s a sure winner for re-election.
In the remote chance that the current recession morphs into something much, much worse than a typical downturn, and the nation fails to even commence recovery within four years, then we will face a situation so extreme, insecure, revolutionary and painful that Presidential politics will represent the least of our concerns.
I’m a firm believer in the idea that if Obama gets in, the economic crisis will last more than 4 years. Now, having said that, I recognize that he might serve 2 terms. After he destroys the country with taxes and regulations, he can run on the slogan: “Now is no time to leave the job half finished!”
Why the Next President Will Likely Win Three Terms.
The Obama Supreme Court will rule that term limits are unconstitution. Obama’s third term will be President-for-life!
Which would make a huge difference in Supreme Court justice appointments and SCOTUS decisions for the next 30 years.
The 22nd Amendment would have to be repealed for that to happen.
No. In 1992 we were already in recovery mode, but Bush 41 lost anyway.
That was the response I got when the Boston Globe ran a column on why Bush and Cheney should resign immediately after the election so Barack can take over. I said, good. Then he can’t run for re-election.
It won’t hurt Barry Hussein that there was a healthy so-called conservative base that supported open borders/amnesty, such that there will be 20-30 million new non-taxpaying, voters during the next administration (regardless of who wins). This will ensure a perpetual voting-majority of parasites (ie Democrats), who will eagerly punish any wealth creation by the new hapless minority (ie traditional Americans) with confiscatory taxes.
Thanks Mr. Medved. You are a true visionary.
Leftists don’t mess with Amendments or repealing Amendments -
they just “interpret” the Constitution to justify whatever they want to do anyway.
RvW for example - the court said that the states don’t have the right to make laws restricting abortion. Square that with the wording of the Constitution.
I’m beginning to think we might be better off if each president was limited to one six year term. Or even one four year term. Eight years of Clinton seemed like a lifetime, and eight years of Bush has been almost as bad. To think about who we’re going to have to endure for the next eight years is depressing.
A stealth Marxist who gets into the Presidency via manipulation has a strong chance of changing the nation so much that he stays in power.
Barack Obama & the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis
Listen to this Interview of James Simpson, by Sandy Rios, Tuesday 9/30 - WYLL 1160AM, Chicago, IL
From http://www.culturecampaign.com/culturecorner.aspx
Simpson documents his research in his article, providing Web links. He provides a rough flow chart.
“The 22nd Amendment would have to be repealed for that to happen”
Not if a newly-appointed “Obama Supreme Court” decides that some amendments violate the “rights of the Court to interpret the law and will of the people”, and that such violations cannot be tolerated even when such language is inserted into the Constitution. In essence, that even some provisions of the Constitution itself may be “unconstitutional”, and that the Court will become the sole arbiter of such decisions.
(I’m only half-kidding!)
- John
This guy doesn't know Hillary.
Four years hence the constituency for the handouts fashioned by Obama and the Democrats will be enormous. Healthcare as a right will be written into law and it will be virtually impossible to undo it and it will have bought much of the population, certainly much of the female population, for a generation or two for the Democrat party-much like Social Security bought a generation of voters for the Democrats. For nearly 3 generations Social Security has provided the Democrats with an election issue: "the Republicans are trying to take your Social Security away from you." Why should health care be any different and why should the Democrats behave any differently?
The wave of immigrants crossing our borders and registering at our polling booths will continue unabated and the devastating consequences for conservatism can only be imagined.
The astonishing money raising ability and ground campaign that the left has put together with Obama as the front man will be more deeply entrenched by the next election.
To unhorse Obama in four years will require either an intervening cause such as the 9/11 or a total economic meltdown. His record will have to be as pathetic as was Jimmy Carter's. More, the record must be perceived by the bulk of the voters to be ruinous for the country and that is quite a different thing than the record itself.
Just as this election is being decided by a perfect storm of sentiment so the governance of the nation for the foreseeable future will be dominated by a confluence of sentiment, interest, external events such as the financial crisis, and international events all of which will tend to here the ship of state hard to larboard.
Totally dumb headline.
You're assuming Obama would play by the rules!
At the end of an Obama first term look for double digit inflation and unemployment, gasoline at better than $5 per gallon and economic malaise as bad or worse than at the end of Jimmy Carter's first term. The old mantra of blaming things on Bush will not be credible and the American people may be very anxious to throw Obama out.
All the liquidity and demand side stimulus that Bernanke and Paulson are throwing into the system should set us up for double-digit inflation in about four years. Jimmy Carter II!
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