I believe the race is actually in a dead heat at this point.
The pollsters are not taking into consideration the “race” factor that Obama’s staff says may amount to 6+ poll points and I would agree.
McCain does well tonight and campaigns hard he can and will win - the media reaction will be worth putting up to their flagrant bias for Obama.
The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior (N.B. Obama’s “experience”).
Unfortunately, there is absolutely no evidence from McCain’s entire campaign that he is going to do anything other than “reach across the aisle” tonight, brag about how he’s voted against Republicans in the spirit of bipartisanship and I wouldn’t be surprised if he brags about how he told his audience that “there’s nothing to fear” about an Obama presidency.
Oh, I forgot. McCain’s going to kick Obama in the butt tonight. In McCain’s world view, that translates to kicking Obama over the finish line.