Obama and McCain deadlocked 48-48 in the Shenandoah Valley? That's extremely strange.
Survey USA also has a reverse gender gap, with Obama leading among men by a larger margin than among women.
Either the nation has shifted enormously in the last week, or this poll is screwy. Until evidence indicates otherwise, I hold with the latter option.
There is something either seriously wrong with that poll, or seriously wrong with that state.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 09/27 - 10/05 | -- | 49.9 | 45.0 | Obama +4.9 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/04 - 10/05 | 666 LV | 53 | 43 | Obama +10 |
| Suffolk | 10/03 - 10/05 | 600 LV | 51 | 39 | Obama +12 |
| Mason-Dixon | 09/29 - 10/01 | 625 LV | 45 | 48 | McCain +3 |
| CNN/Time | 09/28 - 09/30 | 684 LV | 53 | 44 | Obama +9 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 09/29 - 09/29 | 436 LV | 51 | 45 | Obama +6 |
| ARG | 09/27 - 09/29 | 600 LV | 46 | 49 | McCain +3 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 09/28 - 09/28 | 500 LV | 50 | 47 | Obama +3 |
LOL... they are going insane in these polling firms.
I live in the Shenandoah Valley and I can tell you that I see very few Obama sign yards, whereas four years ago there were lots of Kerry signs. There are tons of McCain signs, sometimes multiple signs for McCain in the same yard. Support for him is strong here.
The Valley does have several colleges/universities, which may account for some of the Obama support here. But enough to make it deadlocked between Obama and McCain? I don't think so.
Am I the only one who thinks there is something mighty strange with the polls lately? With all the indications of strong McCain support (such as the yard signs in this area, the swing of many PUMAs to McCain's side, the huge crowds for Palin, the strong support of evangelicals because of Palin, etc.), where are they getting all the support for Obama in their polls?
Thar’s a yellah stain on Texas,
That we ain’t gonna bless
You other FReepers know how
He screwed us with this mess.
We cried so when he left us
It like to broke our hearts
And if we ever find him
We’ll chew him to parts!
He’s made a man of color
The presidential blue
The red has dried before us
Evaporated like the dew.
You may talk about a Clinton
And carp of Carter, too
But the Yellah Stain of Texas
Is the worst I ever knew.
Oh, my heart is feeling weary
And my head is hanging wane
I’m goin’ to Virginny
To vote for John McCain.
You may talk about your Limbaugh
And sing of Han-nit-tee
But the Yellah Stain on Texas
Gave Hell to you and me!
I don’t believe this poll at all. Especially the part about McCain not leading in any region in the state. That tells me it is false. The same about the reverse gender gap. Something is wrong with this poll.
LS previously mentioned the possibility that we’re seeing a replay of 1996, where all the pollsters (save Zogby) were not just wrong, they were wildly wrong. Sure, they got the “winner” right, but Clinton’s margins were wildly overestimated. Some polls had Clinton over Dole by as much as 24 points.
When it makes no sense, it probably is tainted.
Survey USA polls are NOT as accurate because they use touch-tone polling...rather than a live calltaker.
This is baaaad. If McCain loses VA and FL, it will be a bad night, and a short night.
Another PROPAGANDA poll.
Obama with a 10 point advantage among women? LOL
Obama with a 11 point advantage among men? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Good luck with THAT holding up on election day.