Perhaps Quinn. is right. If just a couple of states shift, you can see a big shift in the electoral college for either candidate.
However, all the other internals I've seen suggest Obama cannot win: he's losing among suburbanites; he's getting only 70% of Dems vs. 90% GOP voting for Mccain; he's getting "only" 73% of blacks (down from 91% voting for Kerry). So I guess we'll see.
To see the kinds of shifts we're smelling with these three polls, McCain/Palin would need to be trailing nationally by over ten points. They're not.
I seriously question the "internals" you are quoting here. No way do 25-30% of DEMs vote for McCain, and definitely no way do only 73% of blacks vote for Obama.
The Ohio result is absurd.