Posted on 09/30/2008 7:25:40 AM PDT by No Dems 2004
In Ohio, Slight Movement to Obama, But Fight for 20 Electoral Votes Still Even: In an election for President of the United States held in Ohio today, 09/30/08, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama finish within one point of each other, according to this latest, WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA.
Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 48 -- McCain's nominal 1-point lead within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 15 days ago, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is flat.
McCain leads by 17 points among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Obama leads by 21 points among those who earn less than $50,000 a year. McCain leads 5:4 in Columbus, Cincinnati, and Toledo. Obama leads 5:4 in greater Cleveland.
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Filtering: WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Ohio adults 09/28/08 and 09/29/08. Of the adults, 819 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 693 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Interviews conducted during an unprecedented time of financial and political turmoil.
Ohio has 20 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Ohio by 2 points in 2004 and by 4 points in 2000.
Asked of 693 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%
** If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
49% McCain (R) 48% Obama (D) 1% Other 2% Undecided
(Excerpt) Read more at whiotv.com ...
In my different way of looking at state-by-state polls, McCain leading by a single point in Ohio in two different polls is consistently with Obama leading by about 2-3 points nationally. Maybe not even that much.
Which explains why he’s made two visits to Ohio when pundits said he was throwing his money away.
We’re already voting here. I can’t say I’m all that happy about it. The Dems are doing a full-court press to get people to vote right now in the middle of the financial mess.
I sure hope McCain and his crew have put something similar together.
With a only one month to go before the election it's not to early to begin this type of grassroots effort. But, so far, there's no sign of it.
Well, it’s pretty cool to see that after all of McCains ‘slippage’ he’s still up a point in critical Ohio. Last night’s Rasmussen/Fox poll also gave McCain a 1 point lead in the Buckeye State. Florida also still leans towards McCain.
One can’t help but wonder if the national polls are wrong? Where is Obama’s ‘surge’ coming from?
Consider that all the polls of late have shown McCain doing really well in the South, etc. He’s enjoying runaway leads in Kentucky, Louisiana and Tennessee - all states twice won by Bill Clinton.
I think that polls are cutting Mac short - anyone else agree?
Fox showed a huge Dem effort to get college kids to sign up and vote this week. Does the GOP have a similar plan?
I believe that Obama needs to be polling up 3% to actually win. Thus, Ohio looks close, but right now it’s McCain’s to lose.
From here out these polls will be crap. Pay attention to how the campaigns are acting. Period.
The only positive right now, is that the polls are drastically in Obama’s favor and McCain still has an edge in OH and FL. Assuming some movement back in the right direction, both states should be safe.
And I'll say again, I think it's irrelevant. The two real "battleground" states are CO and VA.
“The only positive right now, is that the polls are drastically in Obama’s favor and McCain still has an edge in OH and FL. Assuming some movement back in the right direction, both states should be safe.”
I have to agree with you there.
I hope McCain prevails in November.
My parents are registered Independents and they have always liked McCain.
Last night, I asked my mother what she thought of Obama and she said they love Obama and it sounded like they were going to vote for him. She also said they totally dislike Sarah. I was surprised that they would not be voting for McCain but it seemed to me it had to do with his choice of a VP candidate.
Agreed. SE Ohio will NOT go to Obama if he promised them all free housing. (Oops, I guess Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already did! lol)
This and other state polls are incongruent with a national lead of 5 points for Obama. National polls seem like a joke right now.
I’ve read several interesting stories the past couple of days from Ohio and I think McCain takes Ohio by 8-10 points. He routinely polls 10-points higher that Obama in rural parts of the state. Obama can’t win Ohio simply by taking the urban areas.
Bingo!
Co and Va are the two states O’Bama is trying to “pick up.” (I assume he will win Iowa and New Mexico).
If he wins either one that means Mac must reverse somewhere else.
That could lose it for us by itself.
The latest polls show McCain slightly ahead in Ohio. It also looks like McCain is starting to recover here in Virginia and Colorado. He is in IOWA today maybe they are going to try to get the farmer vote after all. He really needs to head to North Carolina and help out Liddy Dole or send Palin down there. Dole is finally recovering and by election day she will win but how they allowed this to get so close shows how out of it the national party is.
Under normal circumstances, in a 50-50 election (with even national polls), you'd expect McCain to win Florida and Ohio by a couple points or even more. That's because Obama likely would run pretty weakly in rural Ohio, compared to Kerry.
If Obama is ahead nationally by 3-4 points, then Ohio would be close to a dead heat, which this poll indicates. Rising tide lifts all boats. I don't think there's a contradiction between the national polls and this one. If anything, I take solace in McCain still being up in Ohio, but he's going to have to gain ground nationally to take those other key states like New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa.
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