NPR Poll: Obama, McCain Even In Swing States (Democrat partyid in Battlegrounds shrink)

http://www.npr.org ^ | September 24, 2008 | by Mara Liasson

[Maelstorm]

Shifting Battleground

Since the polling team last surveyed likely voters in August, a lot has changed. The number of battleground states has shrunk — from 19 to 14 — as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana returned to their Republican roots.

In August, Obama led in the 14 states by 3 points. Now McCain leads in those states by 2, and the underlying political landscape has shifted a bit as well.

In August, by a 7-point margin, more voters identified themselves as Democrats. Now, in the battleground states, the Democratic advantage in party identification has shrunk to 2 points.

[Maelstorm]

Democrat party id is shrinking in battlegrounds. Hillary voters are not going to Obama. PA has a huge number of undecideds. The underlying dynamics favor McCain.

[GOPsterinMA]

But, but, but...McCain/Palin is getting crushed...(sarc)

[Clintonfatigued]

McCain’s strength in Pennsylvania and Michigan are the big bright spots in this election.

[jwalsh07]

Wnanna know why the dem id is shrinking and the pub id is increasing in Battlegorund States?

Well, I'll tell you any way. :-}

It's because McCain and the RNC are advertising there and citizens in those states are getting the other side of the story. IOW's they have the money to do what the MSM won't do in those states but they don't have enough to do it in all states.

I'm gonna send them some more.

[Paul8148]

I which they would break it down by state.

[uncbob]

PA has a huge number of undecideds.

And Obama is running adds every hour on the hour on Sports Talk Radio and Sports TV here in Phily and the Burbs--McCain Nowhere to be seen or heard

His campaign is either blowing it or waiting for a final week blitz

[jwalsh07]

LOL, I've never been in a Starbucks but I admit to frequenting WalMart. In fact I just bought a plinker in a WalMart in Georgia while visiting my grandkids. Went in for golf balls, saw a Ruger 10/22 stainless. Price was right so I bought it bitterly and am, as I type, clinging to it.

[LS]

LOL. He is either tied or has a lead in PA . . . but McCain is “blowing it.” Right. Bush should have “blown it” like this in PA.

[LS]

What kind of wild political season is it when a Republican wins PA and MI and NH, but loses CO and NM and VA?

[Crawdad]

The privacy of the average American has become so compromised that people are afraid to tell a pollster they’re not voting Obama.

[BurbankKarl]

I prefer Starbucks and Wal Mart.

[BurbankKarl]

someone at Countrywide sold their ENTIRE database....

[Kevmo]

bmflr

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

[Perdogg]

Is McCain going to show up Friday night, what’s the deal?

[Perdogg]

We have to win those or hold CO, NM, and/or VA.

[Perdogg]

I think McCain will win VA (btw I live in VA).

[Norman Bates]

I’m not convinced we’re losing VA. While the latest Rasmussen (taken Sunday) has McCain up just 2%, Mac has a +6% favorability rating (58% to Obama’s 52%). Even better is that in Ohio, Rasmussen has Obama’s unfavorability at 49%. Quinnipiac had Obama up 5% in CO but that was taken all during last week’s stretch of bad economic news (9/14-21).

[Williams]

How is the McCain 2 point lead in battleground states “even”?

[Norman Bates]

If we win Pennsylvania, we can lose Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and Iowa, and we are still at 273. If we add New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, we can lose all of those plus Nevada and still win.