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To: Revel
It has now fallen in value from $700,000 to $500,000, but has another 30-40% to go, and will eventually bottom out in the $300,000 range.

That's a pretty good crystal ball this fellow has. His analysis is excellent for the most part, but he hurts himself by pretending to know where the bottom is. A bottom there would take home values from 2007 to 1991 prices in Southern California, back when values where already depressed. They went up a little from 97-99, slowed down til 2002 or so, and then moved steadily up again, until they started exploding around 2004, due to low interest rates.

Unless salaries plunge by half, I would not expect values to fall below where they were in 2002, when the low interest rates started this mess in the first place. Pendulums being what they are, there is a chance that things will swing too far the other way, but not as far as this guy is saying. His scenario of doom and gloom in the market colors his prescription for a solution.

8 posted on 09/24/2008 11:07:25 AM PDT by Defiant (Pacifism and Socialism: Death and Taxes, just lots more of it.)
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To: Defiant

We are going into a strong Recession(No matter what) at best. Lots of jobs being lost. So I would guess that you can rewind prices to 2001 and then some. Just a guess. I don’t know. We will find out.


10 posted on 09/24/2008 11:14:14 AM PDT by Revel
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