Posted on 09/23/2008 8:23:43 AM PDT by Edgerunner
Political analyst extraordinaire DICK MORRIS plots out the critical states that may determine whether John McCain or Barack Obama becomes the next president. This week’s poll results indicate that the Sarah Palin effect has run its course.
(Excerpt) Read more at w3.newsmax.com ...
I stopped reading there.
“This week’s poll results indicate that the Sarah Palin effect has run its course.”
One word: debate
I feel much better now. Morris predicting a win for Obama is good news for us.
Thanks Dick
Who’s running the VEEP Debate?....
Maybe Morris did not see the news of the crowd she had this week, 60,000 plus! The Palin effect is nowhere near over.
What poll is he looking at that makes him think Florida is leaning Obama?
Ras just put out a poll yesturday in Florida and McCain is up by 5. Palin attracted a 60,000+ crowd.
Dick Morris is nuts!
This guy makes a living selling conventional wisdom a week late. Wonder how much he makes doing this. Any brain cells involved?
Arkansas is not a tossup.
Sure Dick...MO and AR are tossups and FL is blue...idiot.
One thing about Dick. If you don't like his opinion this week, just stick around. He'll have the opposite one next week.
Correction:
Self proclaimed Political analyst extraordinaire DICK MORRIS...
“Maybe Morris did not see the news of the crowd she had this week, 60,000 plus!”
And, the 60,000 is very interesting. McCain/Palin got 60,000 to rally in a location that is a relatively small area.
This rally wasn’t in Orlando or Tampa, where there are millions of population to draw from. The Villages itself is a substantial sized community comprised of almost exclusively of retirees.
So, either everyone in The Villages attended the rally, or there were people driving to (more or less) middle-of-slightly-somewhere to see her.
Retirees are officially involved in Palin-mania.
Seems like the bloom is hardly off the rose.
Go back to sniffing dirty feet, Dick.
So right, a small area, and some estimates were as high as 70,000!
Morris blows with the wind, I just watch him for entertainment value, not for real political insight.
Is Dick Morris EVER right? Nope.
When I want to know about toe-sucking, I email Dick Morris. Rehab must have been effective, because he doesn't respond.
Morris is rarely right....but Arizona leaning McCain come on...Florida is also McCain’s to lose
First presidential debate
Friday, September 26
The University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.
Jim Lehrer
Executive Editor and Anchor, The NewsHour, PBS
Vice presidential debate
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.
Gwen Ifill
Senior Correspondent, The NewsHour, and Moderator and Managing Editor, Washington Week, PBS
Second presidential debate (town meeting)
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.
Tom Brokaw
Special Correspondent, NBC News
Third presidential debate
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.
Bob Schieffer
CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent, and Host, Face the Nation
Each debate will begin at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
Format
The format for the debates, announced on November 21, 2007, will be:
— Each debate will have a single moderator and last for 90 minutes.
— In the first and third presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, the candidates will be seated with the moderator at a table.
— One presidential debate will focus primarily on domestic policy and one presidential debate will focus primarily on foreign policy. The second presidential debate will be held as a town meeting in which citizens will pose questions to the candidates. The vice presidential debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics.
— During the first and third presidential debates, and the vice presidential debate, the time will be divided into eight, ten-minute segments. The moderator will introduce each segment with an issue on which each candidate will comment, after which the moderator will facilitate further discussion of the issue, including direct exchange between the candidates for the balance of that segment.
— The participants in the town meeting will pose their questions to the candidates after reviewing their questions with the moderator for the sole purpose of avoiding duplication. The participants will be chosen by the Gallup Organization and will be undecided voters from the Nashville, Tenn. standard metropolitan statistical area. During the town meeting, the moderator has discretion to use questions submitted by Internet.
— Time at the end of the final presidential debate will be reserved for closing statements.
Participants The CPD 2008 Candidate Selection Criteria, announced on November 21, 2007, will be the exclusive means of determining the candidates to be invited to participate in the debates.
For more information, please visit http://www.debates.org.
This is the same man that predicted Hillary will win the primaries..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/how_clinton_will_win_the_nomin.html
Dickie's been sniffing too much nail polish.
It would take a 10 point swing to move from the Republican mini-landside that he was predicting only a week ago to the the electoral map that he is showing today. For example he has Colorado as a Toss Up. That is probably true. But a week ago Colorado was Solid McCain. So he was way too optimistic McCain-wise a week ago and he is not overcompensating for Obama this week.
Why waste time paying any attention to what Morris says. We have Rasmussen, Battleground and Gallup (screwed up but we understand the fudge factors) plus the reliable state polls. That's what I look at.
You gotta wonder about Morris. He talks a good game but I don’t trust him. I read last week that Morris was a paid consultant to Obama’s cousin in Kenya...what’s his name? Odinga?
For all I know he may be right, but in the history of red/blue state polling has a traditional blue state ever been a toss-up in pre-election polls?
Exclusive: Dick Morris Says Hillary Will Be America’s Next President
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/5/7/191010.shtml
I don’t think Morris is an extraordinary anything. But I like to look at the map. Although I can’t figure out why he hasn’t moved Florida over to the McCain/Palin camp yet.
Morris represents everything that was wrong with Bill Clinton’s presidency — ego, greed, ego, ego, etc. etc. And if you listen to him on Fox News, he would actually have you believe that it was his great advice that kept the Clinton ship from sinking.
Little does he know that antisocials don’t operate that way, nor do they need advice from anybody. All their advisers do is serve as mirrors for their self-defined greatness. And now Morris has become one of them. Trained by the master himself.
Dick Morris’ comments are doing a lot to wake up the sleepy Repubicans.
Keep it up there Mr. Morris. You’re good for the Repubs.
I think your logic is seriously flawed, though, if you think the Palin effect has reached its zenith.
And I saw a headline on Druge that says Obama’s crowd in Green Bay was “uncharacteristically low.” Get used to it. The crowds are going to start to dwindle characteristically when the Obama mesmeridees learn that Obama’s father was Arab and he is not African-American, but rather, the son of a man whose culture traded slaves. Obama is not and never was the descendant of a slave.
he has never been right about anything of consequence. and he lost a ton of money in the form of interviews and article writing when hillary lost since he is supposed to be this big expert. now he's a sideshow.
“...when the Obama mesmeridees learn that Obama’s father was Arab and he is not African-American...”
When will this come out?
Where may I read more about this?
fivethirtyeight.com is also a good site that brings a kind of meta-analysis to the poll process.
They’ve yet to be wrong. IMO
I knew I should have saved the link. It was either embedded in a FR thread or in a Drudge article. I’ll keep looking and if I have any luck, will post it to you.
Dick needs to return to toe sucking.
The guy’s only income, so far as I know, is writting self-aggrandizing books and paid for “analysis” for any broadcast or written media that will buy his drivel.
To say that Palin’s impact is waning at this point in time is strictly pandering for face time. Particularly since we have not had one debate yet. Media cannot try to pretend that she doesn’t exist when she’s on the same stage with Biden or Hillery. And this doesn’t take into account the possibility of the dirt diggers coming up with one or two non-scandals that only blows back in the dems faces.
Morris is irrelevant. Only in this country can someone who has done nothing wind up a presidential candidate; or a person who has nothing intelligent to say get a hearing in the media.
If you don’t ask if anything you hear from the MSM makes sense your doing yourself a disservice.
I have become a much happier person since I applied that question to everything I see, hear and read. There isn’t a BS meter made that can capture the scope of the lies and contradictory analysis and opinions coming from the left.
The really important concern right now, with McCain, is how successful(or unsuccessful) the dems are in tieing him to the Wall Street crowd. So far, IMO, they have failed to do it. In fact, even the shill media polls show him picking up ground again this week.
The McCain/Onada debate will be the sledge hammer that will drive the dem pres. candidate back to the oblivion he came from. Speaking extemporaneously and against a clock will tank this guy. Dems can do all the debate prep they want, but I think McCain can easily take charge of the debate from the moment he completes the answer to the first “did you beat your wife today” question. And Palin handled everything the shill Gibson threw at her in the infamous hit interview.
Biden’s advantage in coming up with glib one liners is significantly negated by debate format as I understand it. Candidates are not supposed to be talking to each other, nor are they supposed to attack each others positions. The format is set up, I think, to make them talk about their individual positions. That’s always easy for pubbies—particularly conservative pubbies. Democrats can’t really say what their positions are because they would never get elected.
I’m not exuberently optimistic yet. But I’m moving from a pessimistic to cautiously optimistic outlook at this point. There are not that many days—40 or so—before we vote. It may come down to the last debate for the big shift to McCain occurs. But I think it will happen after the first encounter.
Found the following:
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/02/obama-arab-amer.html
and this:
http://kennethelamb.blogspot.com/2008/02/barak-obama-questions-about-ethnic.html
I’m surprised that the Washington Post and New York Times would engage either of these pieces. All I’m saying is that I find them astoundingly interesting. Does the information check out? I have no idea. My guess is that it does since it has been relegated to obscurity with a possible hope that nobody on the right, or for that matter, within their own camp, gets a chance to read it.
By the time of the election, Dick Morris will have predicted every possible outcome and will be able to go back and reference the correct one.
The democrat election fraud is going to be the worst ever this year.
Why on earth does he have Florida leaning blue? Every poll I’ve seen lately has McCain strong in Florida.
Hey Dick! In case you missed it...regarding Florida...
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/14 - 09/21 — 48.0 46.0 McCain +2.0
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 51 46 McCain +5
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Sun-Sentinel/R2000 09/15 - 09/18 600 LV 46 45 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 09/16 - 09/17 707 LV 51 45 McCain +6
Miami Herald/SP Times 09/14 - 09/17 800 LV 47 45 McCain +2
CNN/Time 09/14 - 09/16 907 RV 48 48 Tie
Tampa, St. Pete, Miami-Dade, Orlando, Broward and Palm Beach counties are all very liberal Dem places.......
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