Bolivia strengthens relations with Russia after US fall-out

Bolivia may look towards Russia for funding if the United States decides to withdraw its £14 million in annual aid.

Relations between America and the South American state are at an all-time low after Bolivia expelled the US ambassador amid civil unrest which has left more than 30 dead.

Whilst long range Russian bombers now streak across the skies of the Caribbean from a base in Venezuela, and Moscow seeks to strengthen relations with its old ally Cuba, Bolivia may be the latest recruit in expanding Russian influence in Washington's "back yard".

Last week the US ambassador to La Paz was expelled accused of fomenting civil unrest and Washington swiftly reciprocated with the ejection of the Bolivian ambassador.

Now Evo Morales is looking to get help, military and antinarcotics, to make up the shortfall if and when the US cuts off aid.

"There are negotiations going on", said Felipe Caceres, Bolivia's Vice Minister of Defence, adding that the Russian embassy in La Paz had responded positively and that a visit to Moscow was being planned.

President Morales is facing demands from four of the country's richer provinces for more autonomy, following protests that have left 30 dead, more than 100 injured and another 106 disappeared.

Washington, which has long neglected Latin America for more pressing foreign policy concerns in the Middle East and Asia, is now paying the price. South America is now all but lost to US influence, with only Colombia, a stalwart ally, and Peru interested in closer relations.

The rest of the region has now swung against US influence, the most extreme example being Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, who has cultivated anti-US allies like Iran and Cuba, and has now invited not just the Russian air force but Russian navy to exercise in the Caribbean,

Why would Bolivia need aid in the first place? The country is an exporter of natural gas to Brazil and Argentina. I've heard of OPEC — is there a PO'PEC?

I suppose the aid Morales wants is military. The eastern, lowland provinces, where the natural gas is produced, is resentful of the attempt of Morales to siphon off their natural wealth to the poorer, higher, western provinces, where Morales’ support comes from. The eastern provinces, particularly Pando, have been in a state of insurgency over the past two weeks, including interrupting the gas pipelines to Brazil and Argentina.

The situation is urgent for Morales; he expelled the American Ambassador as a unifier for his party and the Indians who support him. Meanwhile, the other South American presidents are holding a conference in Santiago, Chile, to see what can be done about this near-civil-war. Morales blames Fernandez, the governor of Pando, for starting the fighting. If he gets the Russian equipment, Morales intends to finish it, assuming he can get better soldiers than Fernandez and his brother governors can.

Why would Bolivia need aid in the first place? The country is an exporter of natural gas to Brazil and Argentina. I've heard of OPEC — is there a PO'PEC?

The drug trade undermines American society from within, generating massive costs for social stability, law enforcement, the health system and trade. During the Cold War, the Soviets dabbled with narcotics producers and smugglers, from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to the highland coca farmers of Bolivia. It is not so much that the Soviets encouraged the drug trade directly, but that they encouraged any group they saw as ideologically useful.
Stratfor expects future Russian involvement in such activities to eclipse those of the past. After the Soviet fall, many FSB agents were forced to find new means to financially support themselves. (Remember it was not until 1999 that Vladimir Putin took over the Russian government and began treating Russian intelligence like a bona fide state asset again.) The Soviet fall led many FSB agents, who already possessed more than a passing familiarity with things such as smuggling and organized crime, directly into the heart of such activities. Most of those agents are — formally or not — back in the service of the Russian government, now with a decade of gritty experience on the less savory side of intelligence under their belts. And they now have a deeply personal financial interest in the outcome of future operations.
Drug groups do not need cash from the Russians, but they do need weaponry and a touch of training — needs which dovetail perfectly with the Russians’ strengths. Obviously, Russian state involvement in such areas will be far from overt; it just does not do to ship weapons to the FARC or to one side of the brewing Bolivian civil war with CNN watching. But this is a challenge the Russians are good at meeting. One of Russia’s current deputy prime ministers, Igor Sechin, was the USSR’s point man for weapons smuggling to much of Latin America and the Middle East. This really is old hat for them. - Stratfor

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