I can’t address the other house races, but MD 1st is pretty safe. Last public poll I’ve seen (7/15/08) shows Republican Andy Harris, a solid conservative, leading Democratic carpet-bagger Kratovil by 44 percent to 28 percent. MOE was 5.65 percent.
Why I put the seat in the competitive category is because Kratovil will likely have over $1 mil to run against Harris (though Harris has twice as much), but where Kratovil scored a big win is getting the endorsement of the outgoing RINO Gilchrest in an ultimate act of sour grapes. I don’t expect Kratovil to win, but it’s not impossible, especially if Gilchrest RINO liberals and Eastern Shore residents vote against Harris.