I’m curious as to your assessment of LA-06. That looks to be another serious GOP pick-up opportunity. (For those not familiar, the Pubbies lost this seat in a special election, but they now have a stronger contender [by most accounts] in a district Bush carried with 59% in ‘04.) I saw that it did not make your list of four most likely pick-ups.
My concern for LA-6 is that #1, they don’t frequently toss out their incumbents in that state. They may give Cazayoux the benefit of the doubt despite hailing from the Dems, as they have for Melancon (whom, regretably, has NO Republican opponent this year). The other problem (for us) is that the district was becoming a bit marginal. Baker had some trouble here in recent years (but I wish he had had the common courtesy, along with Hastert, to have waited until the general to retire). Cazayoux also has several times more money than his GOP opponent, State Sen. Bill Cassidy, as well at last report. Now, where Cazayoux has a problem is that a Black Dem (named Michael Jackson, no less, and is a sitting State Representative) is running an Independent candidacy in a district that has a fair number of Blacks (key to a Cazayoux win). If Jackson can snatch a large enough number of Black Dems, this imperils Cazayoux, but all things considered, I’d still have to rate him as likely to retain his seat (especially in the face of increased Black turnout for Obama and presumably the sophistication of Black voters that voting on race over party in the House race would give the seat to the GOP).